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141.
It is generally acknowledged that the growth rate of output, the seasonal pattern, and the business cycle are best estimated
simultaneously. To achieve this, we develop an unobserved component time series model for seasonally unadjusted US GDP. Our
model incorporates a Markov switching regime to produce periods of expansion and recession, both of which are characterized
by different underlying growth rates. Although both growth rates are time-varying, they are assumed to be cointegrated. The
analysis is Bayesian, which fully accounts for all sources of uncertainty. Comparison with results from a similar model for
seasonally adjusted data indicates that the seasonal adjustment of the data significantly alters several aspects of the full
model.
First Version Received: January 2001/Final Version Received: February 2002
Send offprint requests to: Rob Luginbuhl?Correspondence to: Rob Luginbuhl 相似文献
142.
Summary. In this paper, we develop an endogenous growth model with market regulations on explicitly modeled financial intermediaries
to examine the effects of alternative government financing schemes on growth, inflation, and welfare. In the presence of binding
regulation, there is always a unique equilibrium. We perform four alternative policy experiments; a change in the seigniorage
tax rate, a change in the seigniorage tax base, a change in the income tax and a change in the fiscal-monetary policy mix.
We find that in the presence of binding legal reserve requirements, a marginal increase in government spending need not result
in a reduction in the rate of economic growth if it is financed with an increase in the seigniorage tax rate. Raising the
seigniorage tax base by means of an increase in the reserve requirement retards growth and it has an ambiguous effect on inflation.
An increase in income tax financed government spending also suppresses growth and raises inflation although not to the extent
that the required seigniorage tax rate alternative would. Switching from seigniorage to income taxation as a source of government
finance is growth reducing but deflationary. From a welfare perspective, the least distortionary way of financing an increase
in the government spending requirements is by means of a marginal increase in the seigniorage tax rate. Under the specification
of logarithmic preferences, the optimal tax structure is indeterminate.
Received: March 20, 2000; revised version: June 26, 2001 相似文献
143.
Over the last decade, the public sector in Mexico experienced substantial fiscal reform, divestiture of public enterprises,
and the elimination of many regulations affecting pay and employment. This study analyzes the changes in the public/private
sector differences in wages during the 1987–1997 period. The results from analyzing microdata from the Encuesta Nacional de
Empleo Urbano show that relative public sector wages increased from 1987 to 1997. Most of the relative wage increase in the
public sector can be explained by increases in the price of skills and by changes in sorting across sectors. The results have
important public policy implications since they suggest that public sector workers earn more and their wages have grown faster
than those of their private sector counterparts. As such, policies contemplating public sector reform should take into account
the effect of these measures on the inter-sectoral income distribution and the overall economic growth.
First version received: April 2000/Final version received: December 2000 相似文献
144.
Summary. The requirement that a voting procedure be immune to the strategic withdrawal of a candidate for election can be formalized
in different ways. Dutta, Jackson, and Le Breton (Econometrica, 2001) have recently shown that two formalizations of this candidate stability property are incompatible with some other
desirable properties of voting procedures. This article shows that Grether and Plott's nonbinary generalization of Arrow's
Theorem can be used to provide simple proofs of two of their impossibility theorems.
Received: August 15, 2001; revised version: March 11, 2002
RID="*"
ID="*" Parts of this article were previously circulated in somewhat different form in a working paper with the same title
by the second author. We are grateful to Michel Le Breton and an anonymous referee for their comments.
Correspondence to:J.A. Weymark 相似文献
145.
干旱区土地利用结构调整的SD模型研究:以新疆吐鲁番市为例 总被引:7,自引:0,他引:7
土地利用结构的调整是我国目前土地利用总体规划的两大核心内容之一。我国干旱地区生态环境十分脆弱、稳定性差。土地沙漠化、盐碱化、草场退化等现象十分严重,本文以新疆吐鲁番市为例.分析了该市土地利用现状和存在的问题.运用系统动力学模型.建立了土地利用结构调整的动态模型,充当地制订中长期土地利用总体规划提供科学依据。 相似文献
146.
Ed Nosal 《Economic Theory》1997,10(3):413-435
Summary. When players are unable to write complete state contingent contracts it is shown, within the context of a non-cooperative
contracting-renegotiation game, that the only subgame perfect equilibrium allocations are those that correspond to the set
of first-best allocations. Players are able to implement this set of allocations by signing an initial contract that is subsequently
renegotiated in all states of the world. The contracting-renegotiation problem is complicated in an interesting way by assuming
that the state space is continuous. The issue of the existence of an initial contract, that is subsequently renegotiated to
the set of first-best allocations, must be resolved. Unlike Aghion, Dewatripont and Rey [1994], the results here do not require
nor depend upon the comonotonicity of the objective functions.
Received: January 27, 1995; revised version July 1, 1996 相似文献
147.
In this paper we propose a sequential strategy, based on the microeconomic approach of the demand theory, in order to test for separability between private and public consumption. The aim of the present work is to verify, using a conditional almost ideal demand system, whether the different components of public consumption exert conditioning effects on the allocative structure of private spending. The empirical estimation of the model and the separability tests are developed for both a demand system in five functional categories of private spending, and for a demand system in six categories, where the private expenditures on those goods and services which can also be offered by the public sector are enclosed in a single functional category. The results of the separability tests, obtained using UK data for the 1974–2000 period, show that public individual consumption plays an important role in modifying consumer choices, while public collective consumption does not affect private consumption behaviours. The relationships between the different components of private spending and public individual consumption are both of substitutability and complementarity; in particular, we find that public individual consumption and the corresponding private expenditures on ‘Health, education, recreation and social protection’ are complements. 相似文献
148.
In this paper we examine a number of issues that arise in investigating labor force dynamics using the Spanish Labor Force
Survey (EPA). These issues are by no means specific to the Spanish case and apply to most European-style labor force surveys.
Our main conclusions may be summarized as follows. First, survey nonresponse cannot be neglected. Second, the EPA tends to
underestimate employment and participation of high-educated young people, and to overestimate those of the low-educated elderly.
Finally, we find little evidence that attrition causes important selection biases in estimating quarterly transition probabilities. 相似文献
149.
150.
Louis E. Yelle 《Industrial Marketing Management》1980,9(4):311-318
The price-oriented experience curve has been widely utilized as a model to design marketing strategies. Yet, it is cost over which many firms exercise the most control. This article explores the cost-oriented learning curve in conjunction with the product life cycle model as joint strategy constructs. Implications of variations in the learning curve parameters are examined. 相似文献