浅谈“数学模型实验”课程教学

对"数学模型实验"课程的教学模式进行了探讨,介绍了"数学模型实验"的教学内容、教学方法及考核方式,分析了目前该课程教学存在的问题并给出了相应的对策,最后探讨了该课程未来的发展方向。     

Dismantling terrorist networks: Evaluating strategic options using agent-based modeling

Dismantling dark networks remains a critical goal for the peace and security of our society. Terrorist networks are the most prominent instantiation of dark networks, and they are alive and well. Attempts to preemptively disrupt these networks and their activities have met with both success and failure. In this paper, we examine the impacts of four common strategies for dismantling terrorist networks. The four strategies are: leader-focused, grassroots, geographic, and random. Each of these strategies has associated pros and cons, and each has different impacts on the structure and capabilities of a terrorist network. Employing a computational experimentation methodology, we simulate a terrorist network and test the effects of each strategy on the resiliency of that network. In addition, we test scenarios in which the terrorist network has (or does not have) information about an impending attack. Our work takes a structural perspective to the challenge of addressing terrorist networks. Specifically, we show how various strategies impact the structure of the network in terms of its resiliency and capacity to carry out future attacks. This paper also provides a valuable overview of how to use agent-based modeling for the study of complex problems in the terrorism, conflict studies, and security study domains.     

Market Orientation,Competitive Strategy and Firm Performance

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the mediating effects of a firm's competitive strategy in the market orientation-performance relationship. Based on a sample of 371 manufacturing firms in China, evidence was found that the three dimensions of market orientation exert different effects on competitive strategy and performance. Among them, customer orientation has the strongest association with competitive strategy and market performance. This lends credence to a componentwise approach on the study of the relationship between market orientation and performance. The results of structural equation analyses indicate that the mediating effect of competitive strategy is mainly revealed in innovation strategy, the most vital factor in creating superior value for the company in the emerging market. Limitations of this study and implications for future studies are discussed.     

A Structural Model of Leisure Constraints Negotiation in Outdoor Recreation

A conceptual model tested the leisure constraints negotiation process of outdoor recreation: motivation and the constraints to participate likely influenced by negotiation efforts. Higher motivation to participate encourages using negotiation strategies and resources to overcome constraints. Experiencing constraints was thought to trigger negotiation efforts. Drawing from social cognitive theory, negotiation-efficacy was proposed to encourage motivation, diminish the perception of constraints and promote negotiation efforts, which indirectly influenced positive participation. The model tested used data collected from a random sample of Arizona residents through hierarchical confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation modeling. Results support the conceptual model and suggest the constraints negotiation process is a dynamic interaction of influences promoting outdoor recreation participation.     

Key Success Factors for Tourism Resort Management

Abstract

NEW HORIZONS IN TOURISM: STRANGE EXPERIENCES AND STRANGER PRACTICES. By Tej Vir Singh. CABI Publishing (Nosworthy Way, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, OX10 8DE UK), ISBN 0-8519-9863-1, 2004, xv + 221-pp. (tables, photographs, bibliography), £49.95 (hardbound). Reviewed By C. Michael Hall

DESTINATION MARKETING ORGANISATIONS. By Steven Pike. Elsevier (The Boulevard, Langford Lane, Kidlington, Oxford, OX5 1GB, United Kingdom), ISBN 0-0804-4306-0, 2004, 231-pp. (bibliography, indices), £59.99 (hardbound). Reviewed By Chris Ryan     

论电视艺术中的光线与造型

光线是电视艺术的基础,没有了光线也就没有了电视艺术。在电视艺术创作中只有充分认识光线的性质,了解直射光、散射光、顺光、侧光和逆光带来的不同视觉效果,才能充分发挥光线在表现时空、刻画人物、强化环境气氛中的造型作用,为电视艺术创作服务。     

A new methodology for the logistic analysis of evolutionary S-shaped processes: Application to historical time series and forecasting

A new multi-logistic methodology to analyze long range time series of evolutionary S-shaped processes is presented. It conceptually innovates over the traditional logistic approach. The ansatz includes computing the residuals to an optimized multi-logistic trend curve least squares fitted to the time-series data. The elements of the residuals series are checked for autocorrelations and once detected the residuals series is further analyzed to search for eventual presence of underlying periodic structures using a truncated Fourier sine series. The method foundations ensures both a universal applicability and a capacity to disclose the existence of active clocks that can be possibly traced to the driving motors of the evolutionary character of the time series, due to the responsiveness of corresponding process to the development of economic cycles. On associating these two views, it is found that the methodology has a strong potential to improve the quality of short-term forecasts. These findings have been put to test through applications of the methodology to studying the time evolution of two commodities of strong economic and social importance (corn and steel) and good results were consistently obtained for both the analytical and forecasting aspects.     

Adding a freight network to a national interstate input–output model: a TransNIEMO application for California

The state of the nation’s infrastructure is the subject of widespread discussion and comment because it is thought to include many deteriorating and unsafe bridges. Ever since the terrorist attacks of 9/11, there has been increasing concern over the extent to which an attack on infrastructure could result in serious economic disruption. This research develops a model to analyze the economic consequences of an attack on a major element of the highway network. We add a freight network to a national multiregional economic impact model and make freight traffic flows endogenous. The use of a sub-national interstate model recognizes that most infrastructure planning is at the state level and most political leaders’ interest is local. We base our approach on the National Interstate Economic Model (NIEMO) and refer to an elaboration that we name Transportation network and the National Interstate Economic Model (TransNIEMO). The new model enables us to study the state-specific and industry-specific economic impacts of some significant changes in the nature of highway freight movements. We tested the model for selected freight movements in and out of California. The results are entirely plausible and encourage us to elaborate and test the model for hypothetical disruptions of freight traffic throughout the US.     

A multi-criteria assessment of tourist farm service quality

Farm tourism is a significant means of supplementing farmers' incomes. This paper presents a methodology for ranking tourist farms by using a multi-criteria model based on the qualitative multi-criteria modeling methodology, DEX, to assess service quality. The software tool DEXi was used to achieve this end. The model was then applied to seven tourist farms with data derived from questionnaires completed by tourist farm operators and guests. The results are shown as service quality assessments for individual farms. The potential of the model for assessing the farms is demonstrated with the aim of providing a comprehensive explanation and justification of the assessment technique. It also indicates potential improvements that farms can make through “what-if” analysis and visualization. Despite limitations, such as use of qualitative data only, the approach is proposed as being both appropriate and advantageous when compared with other means of ranking enterprises.     

Market Orientation in the Chilean Small Business Context

Abstract

Market orientation has been considered a key factor in successful business operations across different markets. To test this assertion, the authors examine the influence of a firm's market orientation on small business performance in the Chilean retail environment. They go on to report empirical information about the characteristics of the market-oriented retailers in Chile. The Kohli, Jaworski, and Kumar (1993) MARKOR scale is used in the study to assess the market orientation in the context of a developing country environment. Data for the study were collected from small retailers in Chile through self-administered questionnaires using a drop-off/pick-up method. The results show a significant correlation between market orientation and small business performance. Path analyses found that the best structure among the Market Orientation dimensions is: Intelligence Generation→ Intelligence Dissemination → Responsiveness. Moreover, these performance measures differed significantly among the three different partitions obtained using a k-means cluster analysis. The findings indicate that the MARKOR scale is both valid and reliable in a diverse Chilean small business environment.