旅游目的地"社区参与"的三种典型模式比较研究

本文在分析研究国内外相关文献、理论并实地考察国内许多旅游目的地"社区参与"案例的基础上,从中选取3个典型(案例)的社区参与模式进行了比较分析,试图从实证的角度更深入地探索和解析旅游目的地"社区参与"的内在本质、特点、内容或方式,进而探索和寻求旅游目的地"社区参与"更有效的途径与方式.     

Farms’ technical inefficiencies in the presence of government programs*

We focus on determining the impacts of government programs on farms’ technical inefficiency levels. We use Kumbhakar's stochastic frontier model that accounts for both production risks and risk preferences. Our theoretical framework shows that decoupled government transfers are likely to increase (decrease) DARA (IARA) farmers’ production inefficiencies if variable inputs are risk decreasing. However, the impacts of decoupled payments cannot be anticipated if variable inputs are risk increasing. We use farm‐level data collected in Kansas to illustrate the model.     

中小企业股票市场化发行定价的半参数自组织模型与实证

随着深圳交易所中小企业板块的正式启动,我国中小企业新股发行的市场化定价方式必将启用。本文采用基于自组织数据挖掘GMDH算法的半参数模型的定价方法,将GMDH算法与半参数模型方法结合起来。不仅利用计算机的自动拟合优选最优复杂度模型,从而大大简化了非参数部分估计。创造了半参数模型崭新的实现方式,并达到了理想的定价效果,而且可以发挥半参数模型的特有优势。进行模型结构分析。经过实证和检验证明了这种模型用于我国股票发行定价的有效性和合理性。为完全市场化股票发行方式下确定股票的发行价格提供了新的方法。     

基于城乡公共服务一体化行政体制改革的理论分析与模式探讨

实现城乡公共服务一体化是我国城乡一体化的必然发展。文章认为,基于城乡公共服务一体化的行政体制改革在理论上需解决改革的目标、实质、条件和制约因素等基本问题,在实践上有上海功能区域改革和浙江“强镇扩权”两种模式。改革的主要思路是,以浙江模式为基础借鉴上海模式的优势,重点解决阻碍体制改革的制约性因素。具体建议包括合理划分城乡公共服务的供给和管理职责、公共财政从重视城市发展转变为城乡协调发展、统一城乡公共服务机构等。     

我国沪、深股市的波动性研究——基于GARCH族模型

金融市场的波动性不仅是投资者关注的焦点之一,而且也是被研究的热点之一。中国股市还非常年轻,股票市场的价格常常表现出大幅波动的特征。本研究以上证综合指数和深圳成分指数为研究对象,分别运用GARCH模型、TARCH模型和EGARCH模型同时拟合,并对比分析了中国股市日收益率波动的动态特征;结果显示,EGACH模型能更有效拟合股市的波动性。     

利用GARCH-M类模型和极值理论对上证综指的研究

金融时间序列具有分布的厚尾性、波动的集聚性等特征,传统的方法难以准确的度量其风险。文中运用一种新的估计VaR和ES的方法,即采取两阶段法。首先用GARCH-M类模型(GARCH-M、EGARCH-M和TGARCH-M)拟和原始收益率数据,得到残差序列;第二步用极值分析的方法分析的尾部,最后得到收益率序列的动态VaR和ES。最后对三个模型的计算结果进行比较。     

Oil risk contracts,business conduct and performance patterns: Data panel analysis

Using the economic and financial performance data of international companies for the exploration, and exploration–extraction (E&E) of oil, as well as the patterns of institutional situation and orientation with the government market and national oil companies or NOCs that receive project offers, we analyze the institutional development and behavior patterns by type of E&E contract, following the strategic actor approach, or the so-called agency theory. Additionally, in light of Mexico's energy reform being implemented between 2015 and 2019, we analyzed the types of license contracts compared to those for production and shared profit. Subsequently, it was determined-through panel data methods in the analysis of 17 companies between 2005 and 2015-that global companies present bigger yields and commitments compared to specialized companies, confirmed by their net income and returns on equity or ROE.     

Contagion risk in the interbank market: a probabilistic approach to cope with incomplete structural information

One lesson of the financial crisis erupting in 2008 has been that domino effects constitute a serious threat to the stability of the financial sector, i.e. the failure of one node in the interbank network might entail the danger of contagion to large parts of the entire system. How important this effect is, depends on the exact topology of the network on which the supervisory authorities have typically very incomplete knowledge. In order to explore the extent of contagion effects and to analyse the effectiveness of macroprudential measures to contain such effects, a reconstruction of the quantitative features of the empirical network would be needed. We propose a probabilistic approach to such a reconstruction: we propose to combine some important known quantities (like the size of the banks) with a realistic stochastic representation of the remaining structural elements. Our approach allows us to evaluate relevant measures for the contagion risk after default of one unit (i.e. the number of expected subsequent defaults, or their probabilities). For some quantities we are able to derive closed form solutions, others can be obtained via computational mean-field approximations.