Contagion Effects from the 1994 Mexican Peso Crisis: Evidence from Chilean Stocks

The contagion, or informational spillover, effects of the 1994 peso crisis from the Mexican market to the Chilean market, and to the Chilean American Depository Receipts (ADRs) trading in the U.S., are examined. Significant excess returns are observed for Chilean stocks for the event dates of the Mexican Peso crisis, providing evidence of contagion effects. Significant excess returns on these Chilean ADRs are also observed for each of the five event dates associated with the Peso crisis, suggesting that the contagion effects spilled over to the ADRs. A multiple regression model shows that the spillover contagion effects were very efficiently transmitted from the Mexican market to the Chilean market to the Chilean ADRs. Multifactor regressions show that the most significant influence on the pricing of Chilean ADRs is the raw Chilean Index, rather than the Chilean Index expressed in U.S. dollars.     

A Closer Look at the Relation between GARCH and Stochastic Autoregressive Volatility

We show that, for three common SARV models, fitting a minimummean square linear filter is equivalent to fitting a GARCH model.This suggests that GARCH models may be useful for filtering,forecasting, and parameter estimation in stochastic volatilitysettings. To investigate, we use simulations to evaluate howthe three SARV models and their associated GARCH filters performunder controlled conditions and then we use daily currency andequity index returns to evaluate how the models perform in arisk management application. Although the GARCH models produceless precise forecasts than the SARV models in the simulations,it is not clear that the performance differences are large enoughto be economically meaningful. Consistent with this view, wefind that the GARCH and SARV models perform comparably in testsof conditional value-at-risk estimates using the actual data.     

Observable Consequences of Trading Structure Differences: On the Use of Variance Ratios in Microstructure Studies

This paper examines the variance ratio tests in studies of transitory volatility and concludes that the variance ratio is an appropriate test of trading structure differences only under certain assumptions regarding the evolution of underlying stock prices and the autocorrelation structure of returns. This result raises caution as to the interpretation of results bases upon the 24-hour variance ratio methodologies in studies of transitory volatility and trading structure effects. A numerical example indicates that errors in inferences can be severe.     

The Global Determinants of Direct Office Real Estate Returns

We investigate the determinants of direct office real estate returns by analyzing rents, capital appraisals, and total returns. A recently compiled global database of major cities in Asia, Europe, and the United States provides a unique opportunity to give a macro-view on the effects of economic growth and supply and demand factors on nominal real estate returns. The global database provides quarterly observations from 1986 to 1999. To address the smoothness problem of appraisal-based price data and regulated rents, we employ the Generalized Method of Moments to estimate a dynamic panel-data model. The model allows us to combine the cross-sectional and time-series dimension in our quarterly data. We find that gross domestic product, inflation, unemployment, vacancy rate, and the available stock all have an effect on real estate returns.     

Evidence on the Timing and Determinants of Overfunded Pension Plan Termination

This paper examines the factors associated with the timing of overfunded pension plan termination.     

Subordinated Market Index Models: A Comparison

The paper compares various processes subordinated to the Wiener process tomodel the leptokurtic characteristics of index returns. Empirical analysisis performed on the Dow Jones and Nikkei 225 indexes. A good model to capturethe typical tail behaviour of these indexes turns out to be a long Studentt distributed one.     

Return and risk in initial public offerings of both shares and warrants

In the past few years there has been an increasing number of new issues of shares of common stock together with warrants intended to raise interest in initial public offerings of relatively young, growing firms. In this study we examine the pricing efficiency of stocks and warrants offered simultaneously to the public as a single unit. We present a model for evaluating the warrants in such offerings and test it empirically against data from the Tel-Aviv Stock Exchange, where such offerings have become standard. We find that the issued units are usually undervalued, allowing for significant abnormal positive returns. But, while the warrants are usually underpriced, the stocks are overpriced. Largely consistent with the evidence from other financial markets around the world, we also find abnormal negative rates of return in the long run.     

Dynamic analysis of stock return volatility in an integrated international capital market

This paper examines the dynamic behavior of the stock return volatility for Canada, Japan, Germany, and the United Kingdom. The evidence indicates that international stock return volatility is mainly influenced by the U.S. stock return volatility and the exchange rate volatility, supporting the international capital market integration hypothesis. There seems to be some correlation between stock return volatility and macroeconomic volatility, but the effect is relatively weaker. In addition to the economic fundamentals, the noise component is found to be time varying, confirming the AR(MA)CH specifications in the stock return models.     

股票价格均值回归理论研究综述

随机漫步理论认为股票的价格是不能预测的,许多实证检验的结果也支持了这一结论。但是,近年来均值回归理论对随机漫步理论提出了挑战。从长期来看,股票价格呈均值回归是必然的;均值回归具有不对称性;政府行为对股票的均值回归具有一定的影响。     

R&D Progress, stock price volatility, and post-announcement drift: An empirical investigation into biotech firms

I investigate the effects of R&D progress on the dynamics of stock price volatility and the post announcement drift to provide insights into whether or not and how capital markets react to corporate R&D progress in the context of the biotech industry. I find both stock price volatility and the post announcement drift decrease in R&D progress. More importantly, the decrease is proportional to the increase in the drug development success rate driven by R&D progress. Findings suggest that R&D progress conveys useful risk-relevant information, and plays an important role in explaining stock price volatility change and market anomalies.