基于多情景的景区自然灾害风险评价方法研究——以九寨沟树正寨为例

文章采用参与式地理信息系统(PGIS)技术,模拟景区未来典型自然灾害风险情景,建立典型致灾因子强度与灾害风险情景对应关系;对旅游资源、旅游设施进行分类,分析游客居民景区内时空分布特征,建立致灾因子强度与景区承载体的脆弱性对应关系;最后通过拟合风险曲线,建立景区综合灾损模型并预测出多情景年均损失。综合景区利益相关方可接受风险,基于灾损和防灾成本进行风险决策。案例研究以九寨沟树正景群为例,模拟九寨沟在分别遭遇20、50、100、200、500、1000年一遇6种暴雨情景下引发泥石流的流速、流量和冲击力,建立6种情景泥石流与树正景群脆弱性关系;预测6种情景潜在损失和人员伤亡;结合可接受风险,提出九寨沟树正寨未来自然灾害防灾降险措施。     

基于动态贝叶斯网络的邻近下穿隧道深基坑施工风险分析

为了减小邻近既有下穿隧道深基坑施工风险及灾害损失,科学预防施工安全事故,提出了一种基于动态贝叶斯网络（DBN）的深基坑施工风险分析模型。首先,运用BWM（best worst method）确定准则的权重;其次,基于关联规则挖掘风险因素间的相互关系,并以此构建DBN结构模型;最后,以新建厦门北站地下一层社会连廊深基坑工程为例,对提出的方法进行有效性和适用性检验。结果表明：基坑围护结构的安全度在静态被评为“较高”和“极高”的概率分别为34.6%和36.1%,且此结果随着输入风险证据发生动态变化,运用反向推理也能迅速找出围护桩渗水风险;提出的模型能明确邻近既有下穿隧道深基坑施工风险传递过程中的关键风险点,并能进行动态风险预测以及事故后致因诊断,从而实现邻近既有下穿隧道深基坑施工风险的动态管控。所提出的优化DBN模型对工前风险评估、先验分析和风险诊断有较好的适用性和较高的准确性,可为邻近既有隧道深基坑施工过程中的安全管控提供有效的决策支持,大幅提高风险控制效率。     

基于系统动力学的危险化学品运输风险因素研究

为了降低危化品运输事故频次,规避危化品在运输过程中的风险,基于系统动力学模型,从人、机、环、管4个维度构建危化品运输风险因素指标体系,使用AHP法对指标权重进行赋值,结合风险因素间的因果关系构建参数方程,利用Vensim软件仿真模拟危化品运输风险水平的变化趋势,确定单因素变量值和人、机、环、管风险子系统权重的变化对危化品运输风险系统动力学模型的影响程度。结果表明：安全意识薄弱、设备故障等风险因素的变动以及人、机、环、管风险子系统的权重变动都会影响危化品运输风险水平,人、机、环、管4个子系统对危化品运输风险的影响程度从高到低依次是人、管、环、机。研究结果可为降低危化品运输过程中的风险和制定危化品运输事故预防策略提供一定参考。     

Compensating Wage Differentials with Unemployment: Evidence from China

We estimate the economic value of mortality risk in China using the compensating-wage-differential method. We find a positive and statistically significant correlation between wages and occupational fatality risk. The estimated effect is largest for unskilled workers. Unemployment reduces compensation for risk, which suggests that some of the assumptions under which compensating wage differentials can be interpreted as measures of workers’ preferences for risk and income are invalid when unemployment is high. Workers may be unwilling to quit high-risk jobs when alternative employment is difficult to obtain, violating the assumption of perfect mobility, or some workers (e.g., new migrants) may be poorly informed about between-job differences in risk, violating the assumption of perfect information. These factors suggest our estimates of the value per statistical life (VSL) in China, which range from approximately US$30,000 to US$100,000, may be biased downward. Alternative estimates adjust for heterogeneity of risk within industry by assuming that risk is concentrated among low-skill workers. These estimates, which are likely to be biased downward, range from US$7,000 to US$20,000.      

The impact of Halal tourism,customer engagement on satisfaction: moderating effect of religiosity

The research aimed at finding out the relationship between Halal tourism, religiosity, customer engagement, and tourist’s satisfaction. The population of the study were Muslim tourists who visited West Sumatra, Indonesia. The data were 450 respondents, but only 393 were useable responses. It is found that Halal tourism and customer engagement have significant impacts on the tourist’s satisfaction. Religiosity is a significant moderating variable on this relationship. Thus, this study gives some contribution to tourism sector especially on Halal tourism, religiosity, and customer satisfaction.     

Enhancing customers’ brand loyalty via branded hotel apps

Many hotels have launched their own branded mobile applications to develop relationships with customers. Yet, research examining the benefits of branded hotel apps on brand loyalty is scant. The current research investigates the role of branded hotel apps on brand loyalty through customer engagement and brand trust in the hotel industry, based on uses and gratifications theory. Results identified cognitive and social benefits of the branded hotel apps positively influenced customer engagement and brand trust. Hedonic benefits positively influenced customer engagement and they indirectly influenced brand trust through customer engagement. Both customer engagement and brand trust positively influenced brand loyalty. Moreover, mediation effects of customer engagement and brand trust were identified. Results highlight how branded hotel apps serve as a facilitator of brand loyalty, providing theoretical and managerial implications.     

Risk Perception and Buying Behavior: An Examination of Some Relationships in the Context of Cruise Tourism in Jamaica

Cruise tourism continues to grow substantially, even as many other forms of travel stagnate. In this era of increasing worldwide violence against tourists, safety, security, and risk abatement are becoming principal components in travelers' decision-making processes. This work examines the issue of perceived risk and safety and what impact these perceptions have on shopping behavior. The research takes place in Jamaica, a country with a reputation for aggressive vendors. Findings indicate that those visitors who traveled with others spent more time shopping and purchased more. Additionally, it was found that first time visitors express higher levels of discomfort with their surroundings than did repeat visitors, thus inhibiting purchase behavior. Finally, it was found that levels of perceived risk and security did have an impact on a traveler's intention to return to Jamaica.     

Pygmalion leadership: Theory and application to the hotel industry

ABSTRACT

This research investigates the role of Pygmalion leadership and the influences of employees’ trust in a leader, trust in an organization, and job engagement on task performance in the hotel industry. Through examining Pygmalion leadership, trust, and engagement in the literature, this research establishes and tests a model to identify the interrelation among four dimensions of Pygmalion leadership (e.g., climate, output, input, and feedback), trust in a leader, trust in an organization, job engagement, and task performance. Using data collected from hotel employees, this study finds that climate, output, and feedback are critical for nurturing two dimensions of trust that enhance job engagement and task performance.