产业结构调整的汇率驱动路径:价格穿越模型的解释

汇率作为宏观经济调节变量,在受到其它经济条件或经济因素影响的同时,其变动对国民经济也有着广泛而复杂的作用。通过对中国汇率制度历史演进的分析,可以发现人民币汇率的变动始终与中国产业结构的调整息息相关。文章以价格这一中间变量作为动力因素,建立价格穿越模型,分析汇率变动引起产业结构调整的传导路径与作用机理。     

英语标点符号用法浅析

熟练应用英语标点符号需要掌握其用法。常用的英语标点符号共15个。本文对这些标点符号的用法作了一一分析,旨在对英语学习者能清楚的认识英语标点符号的用法起到作用。     

组织人力资源管理部门设置实证研究——基于北京市的非随机抽样调查

组织人力资源管理部门的重要性虽然日益得到认可,但是否独立设置人力资源管理部门却缺乏实证性研究。通过对调查问卷的分析,发现近80%的组织独立设置了人力资源管理部门。再通过进一步的计量分析,发现一个组织是否独立设置人力资源管理部门与其人员规模和从事人力资源管理工作人数具有顺序效应,并进而构建了人力资源管理部门设置的二值Logistic回归模型     

中国邮政储蓄银行中间业务特色化发展战略的设想——以安徽分行为例

自成立之日起,中国邮政储蓄银行依托强大的邮政网络,励精图治,其中间业务迅速发展,呈现出品种丰富、效用增强、规模扩大的趋势。该行在中国作为＂草根银行＂,的确为区域经济的发展做出了应有的贡献,但和金融同业相比,其中间业务发展仍凸显产品研发滞后、业务收益不高、操作风险尚存等问题。本文以邮政储蓄银行安徽分行为例,结合其中间业务发展现状的分析,对邮政储蓄银行特色化发展战略进行设想,提出要通过审时度势、东学西渐、内外联动和左右开弓的系列措施助力其中间业务发展。     

《艺概·诗概》理路、使命及得失谈

从清诗及清代社会思潮的大背景考察《艺概.诗概》的使命,从中国文化的深厚背景找寻刘熙载诗评的理路,从清儒与宋儒的关系考察刘熙载之所失,是捕捉《艺概.诗概》目的的基本手法。     

Fundamental disagreement

We document a novel set of facts about disagreement among professional forecasters: (1) forecasters disagree at all horizons, including the long run; (2) the term structure of disagreement is downward sloping for real output growth, relatively flat for inflation, and upward sloping for the federal funds rate; (3) disagreement is time varying at all horizons. We propose a generalized model of imperfect information that can jointly explain these facts. We further use the term structure of disagreement to show that the monetary policy rule perceived by professional forecasters features a high degree of interest-rate smoothing and time variation in the intercept.     

Capital expenditure decision making in small firms

A number of studies have been conducted to determine the extent to which large firms utilize sophisticated techniques in capital expenditure decision making. This research effort focuses on financial decision making procedures of small firms, exploring the techniques utilized to evaluate investment opportunities, methods employed to adjust for risk, purposes of expenditures and concern for profitability, and the source and cost of funds. In light of the recent debate on the capital shortage issue, small firms were also asked what type of tax reform they deemed most desirable to stimulate capital investments.     

Structural constraints on organizational change: A longitudinal analysis

The results of a longitudinal study assessing the impact of internal constraints upon both organizational responsiveness to the environment and efforts to change structures for symbolic signaling of policy are presented. The causal model used is developed from a theoretical elaboration of Williamson, Thompson, and Meyer. The implications of the analysis for the signaling metaphor of organizational change are emphasized. The data indicate (i) that the varying resistance to change observed within core dimensions of organizational structure may be largely due to durable capital investments, (ii) that within capitalized dimensions of organizational structure, the resulting resistance to change leads to a longitudinal persistence of centralized decision making, and (iii) that failure to incorporate such constraints in analyses of organizational change leads to misleading results.     

山西龙子祠泉水资源分析

本文利用龙子祠泉流量和降水量的多年观测资料,经分析计算,得出泉水开采资源量和保证率以及流量与降水相关的预报方程。结合当前利用现状,提出合理利用和保护泉水资源的建议。