The Effects of Megamergers on Efficiency and Prices: Evidence from a Bank Profit Function

This paper examines the efficiency and price effects of mergers by applying a frontier profit function to data on bank megamergers. We find that merged banks experience a statistically significant 16 percentage point average increase in profit efficiency rank relative to other large banks. Most of the improvement is from increasing revenues, including a shift in outputs from securities to loans, a higher-valued product. Improvements were greatest for the banks with the lowest efficiencies prior to merging, who therefore had the greatest capacity for improvement. By comparison, the effects on profits from merger-related changes in prices were found to be very small.     

银行监管的微观基础和战略监管体系选择

本探讨了银行监管的微观基础，认为在信息不对称以及银行业不完全竞争的作用下，银行业具有内在的不稳定性，需要外部监管力量的支撑来维护稳健经营，但是政府机构监管作为监管垄断力量会引发一系列新的道德危害从而导致监管失灵。中详细分析了各种重要的监管措施带来的正负影响，在此基础上提出监管的战略体系至少应当包括监管、激励结构、市场约束和公司治理。     

油气勘探目标的经济评价

勘探目标经济评价要坚持常规经济评价和风险评价相结合，在用多种方法合理预测经济评价参数，充分考虑各种风险因素的基础上，认真做好风险评价研究，提高勘探目标经济评价的可靠性。     

Another look at long memory in common stock returns

We apply the modified rescaled range test to the return series of 1,952 common stocks. The results indicate that long memory is not a widespread characteristic of these stocks. But logit models of the event of a test rejection reveal that rejections are linked to firms with large risk-adjusted average returns. The maximal moment of a return distribution is also found to influence the event of a rejection, but not in a way suggestive of moment-condition failure. Evidence suggestive of survivorship bias is also uncovered. We conclude that there is some evidence consistent with persistent long memory in the returns of a small proportion of stocks.     

Corporate governance in a major British holding company: BSA in the interwar years

This paper uses a case study of BSA to examine corporate governance in a holding company during the interwar years. Recognised as generally progressive in its policy towards financial disclosure, nevertheless BSA attracted hostile criticism from its shareholders, showed little evidence of developing administrative coordination and provided limited detailed information concerning the performance of its subsidiaries. Voice did have an effect in changing the pattern of financial reporting, but even under the pressure of its banker, when financial circumstances deteriorated in the early 1930s, BSA was only prepared to change personnel while organisational structures remained in place.     

中央银行再贷款：泛化、反稳定性与道德风险

中央银行再贷款是中国人民银行投放基础货币的重要渠道,是我国特有的一种货币政策工具。基于对新形势下中央银行再贷款制度变迁的分析,现行再贷款政策存在泛化、准财政化、反稳定性、衍生道德风险等问题,必须从制度上规范再贷款的运用,并适时建立金融稳定机制。     

中国国有银行改革的理论与实践问题

当前对国有银行改革的讨论应立足于其初始条件,国有独资银行与商业银行不相容,国有银行具有特殊的职能边界———金融支持国家经济增长;在我国特定的历史阶段,国有银行改革应遵循两种截然相异的路径:完全的股份制或国有独资,而国有控股将导致较高的道德风险;机构利益的独立性并非国有银行的专有问题,通过激励机制设计应该保持国有独资银行的利益从属于中央政府的经济金融政策;国有银行的分支机构和人力资源在不同的改革思路下会具有“历史包袱”和“历史财富”的或然双重性质,关键在于能否从时间序列上观察银行绩效;银行改革成本只能是因支持经济增长和经济体制改革所付出的代价,这一代价的跨期承担优于即期摊销。     

代客境外理财业务新政对我国银行业的影响和对策

2006年4月,经国务院批准,中国人民银行推出了“外汇管理新政”, “外汇管理新政”放行商业银行代客境外理财业务,对我国银行业来说,带来的将是机遇大于挑战。本文在对代客境外理财业务新政解读基础上,对实施代客境外理财业务新政的目的以及对银行业的影响进行了分析,并提出了银行业的应对之策。     

世界银行卡产业发展研究

随着全球经济的复苏和银行卡受理环境的改善,近年来世界银行卡产业保持着迅捷的增长势头,银行卡作为支付手段对现金和支票的替代作用也日益明显。本文从总量指标和人均指标两方面对当前世界主要国家和地区银行卡产业的交易状况进行了实证研究,分析了全球银行卡市场在区域和品牌上的分布结构,并对该产业近年来的发展趋势进行了总结与探讨。     

商业银行信用风险评估的生存分析模型及实证研究

企业发生财务危机，不能归还到期贷款是商业银行信贷资产的主要风险来源，商业银行如何构建恰当的信用风险评估模型来预测企业的财务危机，从而避免这类信用风险的出现就显得尤为重要。本文以我国上市公司为研究对象，结合杜邦分析法建立了基于生存分析的信用风险评估模型，模型对于随机选取的预测样本，其提前1年、2年和3年的预测准确率分别达到86％、72％和68％。通过与Ahman模型、Ohlson模型预测结果的比较和鲁棒性检验的结果发现，该模型同时具有可以使用时间序列、无需样本配对、中远期预测能力强和高鲁棒性的特点．这些特点特别对于商业银行中长期信贷风险管理具有较高的应用价值．