Real estate prices and systemic banking crises

The collapse of real estate prices has historically jeopardized banking stability and triggered systemic banking crises. This paper studies risk contagion in a banking system in real estate price shock by adopting complex network theory. Modelling the real estate-related asset as a common exposure of banks to the real estate market, we propose a model that incorporates two main risk contagion channels, i.e., the financial network and asset fire sales, and reveal how the real estate price shock is transmitted and propagated across banks. We demonstrate that banking stability is highly sensitive to the real estate price shock. Moreover, due to the particularly low liquidity of the real estate market, the asset fire-sales of real estate assets overwhelms the financial network, playing the dominant role in risk contagion. Our model can be adopted by regulators to conduct stress testing and to forge effective risk management strategies.     

利率市场化改革与货币政策银行利率传导

现代货币政策框架的内涵之一是畅通的货币政策传导机制。在货币政策对银行利率的传导中,政策利率尤其是再融资工具利率能够通过市场利率向贷款利率和存款利率顺畅传导。本文构造了一个多部门局部均衡模型,刻画利率市场化程度的时变特征,从理论上讨论利率市场化程度与货币政策银行利率传导之间的内生关系,两者共同决定了利率市场化改革的成效。基于时变因子扩展向量自回归模型,本文进一步验证了理论分析的结论。研究发现:(1)利率市场化改革具有阶段性波动特征,利率市场化程度不是一直上升的,改革可能会曲折迂回。(2)利率市场化改革具有动态政策效应,多种改革政策共同推动渐进的利率市场化,但从货币政策银行利率传导的有效性进行考察,利率市场化改革仍然存在进一步推进的空间。因此,有必要完善贷款市场报价利率的形成、传导与调控机制,理顺不同利率之间的联动关系,疏通货币政策对银行利率的传导,充分发挥利率市场化改革的潜力。     

直读式粉尘浓度测量仪示值误差的测量不确定度评定

通过粉尘测量仪表检定装置对直读式粉尘浓度测量仪示值误差进行不确度评定。     

信贷技术、银行业竞争与中小企业融资

不同的银行信贷技术对中小企业具有不同的影响,银行业的逐渐开放,竞争的日益激烈,银行间并购逐年增加,银行业竞争结构的变化严重影响着中小企业融资。随着中国经济与世界经济接轨程度的加大,《新巴塞尔协议》的逐步推行,将不同程度影响银行业竞争结构及中小企业的信贷供给。因此,在制定相关政策时,要充分考虑金融政策的传导机制,不仅考虑其对金融体系及金融中介竞争结构的影响,而且还要考虑到对中小企业融资的间接影响。     

Banking union: the problem of untried systems

This article explores the problems the EU and the SRB face in trying to implement a credible system for resolving banks without the use of taxpayer funds as a key part of banking union that avoids the doom loop between indebted banks and indebted sovereigns. It finds that without clear examples of how the system works in practice it is very difficult to provide convincing evidence of what will happen given the large number of options for bailing in, the continuing predilection for bailing out in some states and the lack of fiscal backstop for general threats to financial stability.     

股权分置改革对上市公司绩效影响的实证研究

股权分置是我国经济转型和资本市场发展过程中的特殊现象。股权分置改革的完成导致上市公司股权结构发生了重大变化,直接影响了上市公司的治理效率和业绩水平。本文对上市公司股权构成及股权集中度对公司绩效影响的实证研究表明:股权分置改革有效地降低了股权结构中各因素对公司绩效的负向影响,同时加强了股权集中度对公司治理绩效的正向作用,使得上市公司的治理绩效得到明显提升。     

Evergreening in banking

In the dynamic model of banking, a bank's option to hide its loan losses by rolling over non-performing loans is shown to worsen moral hazard. Contrary to the classic theory, moral hazard may arise even when a bank cannot seek a correlated risk for its loans. The loans seem to be performing and the bank makes a profit although it is de facto insolvent. When the bank's balance sheet includes hidden non-performing loans, the bank may optimally shrink lending or gamble for resurrection by growing aggressively. To eliminate this type of moral hazard, which is broadly consistent with evidence from emerging economies, a few regulatory implications are suggested.     

土地集中经营的有效方式探讨

目前我国粮食生产的经营规模仍然较小,其难点是土地集中困难.文章从土地转出方、土地转入方及土地流转机制不健全等方面分析土地集中困难的原因,提出有效的土地集中经营方式.在此基础上,提出稳定农民非农收入;完善农村社会保障体系;健全土地流转机制;降低土地流转风险等加强土地集中经营的对策建议.     

税收、银行与企业融资方式

在现代金融中介理论的基础上,考察税收对融资方式选择的影响。研究结果表明,在完全竞争条件下,当银行为客户提供的交易服务成本很低时,以较低的税率对储蓄利息开征利息所得税不会影响储户(或投资者)在储蓄和直接投资之间的选择；对银行贷款利息收入开征营业税,则会引起税收转嫁,提高贷款利息率,使部分企业选择直接融资方式而不是从银行贷款；银行业所得税也会提高贷款利率,减少贷款需求量。     

管理层持股、股权集中度与公司资本结构——来自中国上市公司的经验证据

本文以1176家上市公司为样本,实证检验了资本结构与股权结构之间的关系。实证结果表明:①管理层持股比例与负债率负相关,但不显著;②较高的股权集中度导致高的负债率;③管理层持股比例与公司债务之间的关联性不受公司股权集中度影响;④股权集中度与公司债务之间的关联性受管理层持股比例的影响;⑤管理层持股比例和股权集中度的相互作用能够调节股权与资本结构之间的关系。本文得出了许多有助于诠释资本结构之谜的结论。