Credit gaps as banking crisis predictors: A different tune for middle- and low-income countries

The aim of this paper is to assess the quality of credit-based variables as early warning indicators of systemic banking crises. The existing literature focuses mainly on developed economies and shows that the best performing indicator is the credit-to-GDP gap computed via one-sided HP filter (the so-called Basel credit gap). The empirical evidence legitimates the use of the credit-to-GDP gap as a key indicator in macro-prudential banking regulation, i.e., in the determination of the countercyclical capital buffer. We take advantage of a new database on bank credit series and credit gaps covering more than 160 countries (Bouvatier, Delatte and Rehault, 2022) to focus specifically on middle- and low-income countries. Our findings suggest that the credit-to-GDP gap remains the single best performing indicator regarding the high-income group while the same does not hold for middle- and low-income countries. This result highlights that a one-size-fits-all approach is not relevant in the design of the operational framework of the countercyclical capital buffer. Further, we show that the credit gap turns to be a fair banking crises predictor when the financial development, captured by the trend’s value in credit-to-GDP ratio, exceeds 20%.     

股权分置改革对上市公司绩效影响的实证研究

股权分置是我国经济转型和资本市场发展过程中的特殊现象。股权分置改革的完成导致上市公司股权结构发生了重大变化,直接影响了上市公司的治理效率和业绩水平。本文对上市公司股权构成及股权集中度对公司绩效影响的实证研究表明:股权分置改革有效地降低了股权结构中各因素对公司绩效的负向影响,同时加强了股权集中度对公司治理绩效的正向作用,使得上市公司的治理绩效得到明显提升。     

税收、银行与企业融资方式

在现代金融中介理论的基础上,考察税收对融资方式选择的影响。研究结果表明,在完全竞争条件下,当银行为客户提供的交易服务成本很低时,以较低的税率对储蓄利息开征利息所得税不会影响储户(或投资者)在储蓄和直接投资之间的选择；对银行贷款利息收入开征营业税,则会引起税收转嫁,提高贷款利息率,使部分企业选择直接融资方式而不是从银行贷款；银行业所得税也会提高贷款利率,减少贷款需求量。     

OWNERSHIP STRUCTURE AND FIRM EXIT ROUTES

ABSTRACT

Our study presents empirical evidence about the role of ownership structure for firm exit probability by explicitly differentiating between distinct exit routes (bankruptcy and forced liquidation, voluntary liquidation, mergers and acquisitions – M&A, and removal from the court register). Based on the population of Slovenian firms in the 2006–2012 period and using multinomial probit, our findings support the predictions of agency theory. Ownership concentration, share of the largest owner, and the difference in shares between two largest owners all decrease the likelihood of exit for all studied exit routes but M&A. The magnitude of their impact is largest for exits, in which owners play a decisive role, i.e. voluntary liquidation and removal. The link between the number of primary owners and exit likelihood is U-shaped with the lowest exit probability for firms with around two owners.     

E-commerce and the market structure of the recorded music industry

In this article, we study the impact of the development of e-commerce on the concentration of the recorded music industry in France, for the period 2003–2010. First, we find that over the whole period, CD sales, measured at the distributor level, are less concentrated online than offline. Second, we find that sales concentration online has increased between the early period of e-commerce (2003–2006) and the later period (2007–2010).     

Reducing agency conflicts through bank dividend payout decisions: the role of opacity and ownership structure

We empirically examine whether banks’ dividend decisions are influenced by their degree of opacity and ownership structure. We find that banks with concentrated ownership structure pay lower dividends when they have high degrees of opacity, in line with the hypothesis that majority shareholders pay lower dividends to extract higher levels of private benefits. We do not observe such expropriation behaviour from managers in widely held banks. Further analysis shows that higher levels of shareholder protection and stronger supervisory regimes help to constrain opportunistic behaviour of majority shareholders. Our findings have critical policy implications for the Basel 3 implementation of restrictions on dividend payouts.     

美欧银行业并购中的反垄断比较研究及对我国的借鉴

美欧国家经历了多次银行并购的浪潮后,在银行业反垄断实践中形成了较为完善的立法和司法体系。这些法律法规在允许银行通过并购实现其战略目标的同时,最大限度地避免了并购对自由竞争的损害,对我国银行业的反垄断立法和司法以及银行海外并购具有指导意义。本文对美欧银行业并购中的反垄断立法特点、审查要点、审批流程等进行详细的分析和介绍,并列举美欧银行业并购中的反垄断审查典型案例。最后,本文提出对我国银行业反垄断的建议。     

Lending technologies,banking relationships,and firms’ access to credit in Italy: the role of firm size

This paper analyses the role of lending technologies and banking relationships on firms’ credit access in Italy. Using EFIGE firm-level data, we show that the depth and strength of firm–bank relationships have heterogeneous effects on credit demand and rationing probabilities depending on the size of the borrower. Multiple banking relationships alleviate financial constraints for small firms, while borrowing from a large number of lenders hinders access to credit for large companies. Small and medium-sized enterprises with a higher share of debt with the main bank have a lower probability of being credit denied, as debt concentration contributes to overcome the opacity problems typical of the SMEs. Long-lasting relationships, by reducing information asymmetries, significantly improve access to credit for small and large firms. Conversely, we find that medium-sized enterprises are more exposed to financing constraints as relationship duration increases, due to possible lock-in effects. Finally, firms maintaining banking relationships based on transactional technologies are more likely to be credit denied, while the use of relationship lending technologies improves credit availability for both small and large enterprises.     

Bank lending opportunities and credit standards

This article empirically tests the hypothesis that credit-screening standards can be first increasing and then decreasing in the quality of the bank's pool of potential borrowers, which in turn may vary through the business cycle or across different segments of the lending markets. A key implication is that banks with lending opportunities toward the middle of the quality spectrum can have loan portfolios that perform better than do the portfolios of banks with loan-origination opportunities that are either too weak or too strong. Using banks’ volume of secondary-market loan sales as a proxy for the richness of lending opportunities, I find an inverse U-shaped relation between the performance of banks’ loan portfolios and their activity in the loan sales market. The pattern deserves scrutiny for its policy implications, as many regulators hold the view that countercyclical variation in credit standards may have a destabilizing effect on business cycles.     

银行业竞争程度的影响因素的分析

影响一个行业竞争程度的因素是众多的,因此,如果只从一个角度对银行业竞争程度进行分析是偏颇的。市场集中度、银行行为和银行业经营性质与银行业竞争竞争程度的关系紧密,且以上三个因素共同决定了银行业竞争程度,进而对银行竞争行为进行了分析,为如何准确判断银行业的竞争程度提供了基础。