Do political factors influence banking crisis?

This paper investigates the impending political determinants of banking crisis in advanced economies. In particular, we consider the impact of domestic credit growth on the likelihood of banking crisis and analyse possible constraints on the part of the governments in curbing the unsustainable credit growth. The endogeneity corrected results reveal that the household credit growth has greater impact on the likelihood of banking crisis than the enterprise credit growth. The political channel shows that if governments are concerned about domestic approval rates, then there is a higher chance of credit boom, which in turn increases the prospect of banking crisis. Interestingly, the findings reveal that the presence of an independent and well-functioning central bank mitigates the crisis probability and reduces the opportunistic behaviour of governments.     

Real estate prices and systemic banking crises

The collapse of real estate prices has historically jeopardized banking stability and triggered systemic banking crises. This paper studies risk contagion in a banking system in real estate price shock by adopting complex network theory. Modelling the real estate-related asset as a common exposure of banks to the real estate market, we propose a model that incorporates two main risk contagion channels, i.e., the financial network and asset fire sales, and reveal how the real estate price shock is transmitted and propagated across banks. We demonstrate that banking stability is highly sensitive to the real estate price shock. Moreover, due to the particularly low liquidity of the real estate market, the asset fire-sales of real estate assets overwhelms the financial network, playing the dominant role in risk contagion. Our model can be adopted by regulators to conduct stress testing and to forge effective risk management strategies.     

How justified is abandoning money in the conduct of monetary policy in Australia on the grounds of instability in the money‐demand function?

The role of money in the design and conduct of monetary policy has reemerged as an important issue in both advanced and developing economies, especially since the 2007 global financial crisis. A growing body of recent literature suggests that the causal relationship between money supply growth and inflation remains intact across countries and over time and that this relation is not conditional on the stability of the money‐demand function or whether money is endogenous or exogenous. Moreover, critical for a rule‐based monetary policy is the presence of a long‐run stable money‐demand function, rather than a short‐run money‐demand model that may exhibit instability for many reasons, including problems with estimating a money‐demand model with high‐frequency data. Provided that a stable money‐demand function exists, it could be useful to establish long‐run equilibrium relations among money, output, prices, and exchange rates, as the classical monetary theory suggests. Within this analytical framework, this paper addresses the question of whether money has any role in the conduct of monetary policy in Australia. The conventional wisdom is that the money‐demand function in Australia has been unstable since the mid‐1980s due to financial deregulation and reforms; this led to a change in the strategy of monetary policy for price stability in the form of inflation targeting that ignores money insofar as inflation and its control are concerned. This paper reports empirical findings for Australia, obtained from a longer quarterly data series over the period 1960Q1–2015Q1, which suggest that instability in the narrow‐money‐demand function in Australia was primarily due to the exclusion of variables which have become important in the deregulated environment since the 1980s. These findings are confirmed by an expanded form of the narrow‐money‐demand function that was found stable over the past two decades, although it experienced multiple structural breaks over the study period. The paper draws the conclusion that abandoning the monetary aggregate as an instrument of monetary policy in Australia, under a rule‐based monetary policy such as inflation targeting, cannot be justified by instability in the money‐demand function or even by lack of a causal link between money supply growth and inflation.     

富水粉细砂地层隧道综合降水设计与施工技术

本文通过对实例进行分析论述,解决了围岩受施工扰动和水长期浸润后开挖时不稳定问题,保证了隧道结构和施工安全,为同等或类似地质条件下的地下工程研究及施工提供借鉴和参考。     

对航空发动机燃烧室工作稳定性的思考

航空发动机燃烧室工作稳定性与飞机飞行安全息息相关。因此,在规定的飞行速度之中必须要充分的保证好燃烧室工作的稳定性。影响航空发动机燃烧室不稳定性因素包括火焰稳定基本性能、声耦合效应与反应物供应情况几种。利用CFD技术与反应动力学理论进行定量分析,本文主要从燃烧室火焰稳定性、燃烧室内声耦合效应稳定性、燃烧声稳定性与发动机系统反应物供应限制导致的燃烧室不稳定性分析航空发动机燃烧室的工作稳定性。     

洞穴顶板稳定性评价及其应用

采空区及岩溶洞穴地基稳定性的分析评价经历了一个定性→半定量→定量的过程,文章从这3个方面出发,系统地研究了采空区及岩溶洞穴地基顶板稳定性的分析评价方法,并将半定量评价法应用于某一具体的工程实例。     

生猪生产稳定性的蛛网模型分析

近来,国内猪肉因供应量不足而导致价格大幅上涨,这在一定程度上对我国经济健康运行及人民的日常生活造成了影响。国家已经采取一些措施来促进生猪的生产,加大猪肉的供应。然而,如无限地扩大生猪的生产,也会因供大于求而造成下一次的生猪的供给不足。生猪生产应保持在稳定状态,从猪肉市场长期供求关系的蛛网模型角度,对生猪生产的稳定性进行了分析。     

主题公园游客流稳定性测评——以深圳华侨城为例

保持稳定的游客流是提高主题公园经营业绩和管理绩效、延长主题公园生命周期的有效途径之一。本文从主题公园自身特点出发,构建了主题公园游客流稳定性驱动模型,建立了主题公园游客流稳定性测评体系,并以深圳华侨城为例,通过因子分析和结构方程分析,对景区的游客流稳定性进行测评,分析各综合变量对游客流稳定性的驱动作用的大小以及变量之间的相互影响关系,为主题公园调控游客流稳定性提供参考依据。     

板体地基稳定和高真空击密技术在曹妃甸工业区吹填砂路基处理中的应用比较

板体地基稳定和高真空击密技术是改善地基土质应力和承载力的新型方法,文章通过对曹妃甸工业区吹填砂路基进行处理的工程实例,对此2种处理方法的适用范围、处理效果进行了应用比较。     

卷烟机设备运行参数与烟支重量稳定性关系研究

通过设置不同的针辊转速、VE负压、小风机正压及挡板高度等设备运行参数,对比测试其对卷烟机烟支重量控制稳定性的影响,确定卷烟机合适的设备加工参数,提高卷烟重量控制的稳定性,为实现卷烟质量由结果控制向质量控制转变提供了技术支撑。