我国结构性理财产品的开发研究

近年来,结构性理财产品正在我国兴起,并逐步受到投资者的青睐。但在发展过程中,我国结构性理财产品存在一些问题,制约了市场发展。本文在分析发展现状和存在问题的基础上,提出了发展对策与建议。     

国有商业银行上市及其风险研究——从制度的角度

当前,国有商业银行正紧锣密鼓进行股份制改革,其中的重头戏就是实现上市。国有商业银行上市属于一种典型的产权制度变迁,是国有商业银行调整公司治理结构、改变“一股独大”局面的一个主要手段。作为一种新制度的设计与安排,在实际中肯定将面临很多问题,特别是制度变迁与移植过程中固有的一些隐性风险,是国有商业银行上市改造中不容忽视的问题。     

基于信息共享机制的供应链融资风险管理研究

从信贷业务的共性和供应链融资的特殊性出发,指出了供应链融资面临的多种信贷风险,分析了信息共享对信贷风险的影响,并提出基于信息共享机制的供应链融资信贷风险管理策略。     

商业银行利率风险控制策略分析

利率风险控制是利率风险管理的重要环节,也是识别、衡量利率风险工作的归结。按照是否涉及到资产负债表表内的项目,可将利率风险控制分为资产负债表内控制和资产负债表外控制。本文主要对资产负债表外控制策略进行分析,希望能为有效控制商业银行利率风险提供借鉴作用。     

中国银行业多元化业务收入对其利润影响的实证分析

已有的实证研究表明,我国商业银行业务多元化在一定程度上能提高其盈利能力。本文在已有研究的基础上,实证研究了我国商业银行各项业务收入对其利润的影响。研究结果表明,虽然各项业务收入有助于提高银行总利润,但是利息收入、其它营业收入和投资收益却对银行净利润存在明显的负向影响,但当考虑其与是否股份制银行的虚拟变量的交互影响后,发现业务收入对股份制银行的净利润有显著的正向影响。同时,金融企业往来收入、汇兑收益、营业外收入对银行净利润都具有正向影响,其中又以营业收入的边际影响最显著。     

政府投资项目代建制的财政和财务管理工作探讨

代建制作为一种新的建设模式,克服了“投、建、管、用”四位一体的政府投资工程管理模式所带来的非专业化、低效率、低质量等弊端,通过专业化、集中化和市场化的管理,实现投资控制,保证质量和工期。但代建制是有相应的配套制度作保障的,如果制度不配套,依然会存在风险。在新的政府协调干预机制下———建筑工务局的成立,探讨如何搞好代建制的财政财务管理工作。     

现代银行监管理论的发展及对我国银行监管的启示

放松监管、银行危机与再监管是近30年来世界银行业的主旋律。随着经济和金融的深入发展,银行监管理论和银行监管实践都产生深刻的变化。本文从银行监管的经济学思想回溯入手,按照理论发展的时间顺序对银行监管的经济学思想进行梳理,并在信息不对称和博弈论框架下分析现代银行监管理论的发展,阐述现代银行监管理论的微观基础。最后,文章就现代银行监管理论对我国银行监管的启示提出几点看法。     

Perceptions of postretirement benefit obligations by bond rating analysts

This research examines the measurement and impounding of alternative measures of a corporation's other postretirement benefits obligation (OPEBs) by an important segment of the capital markets. The Kaplan and Urwitz (1979) model is used as a benchmark from which to assess the importance of an added OPEB variable in the bond rating process. Using the corporate bond rating as the dependent variable, multiple measures of the OPEB obligation are inserted individually as an added independent variable into an N-chotomous probit model. The results for 1987 and 1988 indicate that measures calculated from publicly available information produce highly significant results. The developed postretirement liability measures are found to provide relevant and material information regarding the risk level of a firm's bonds as represented by its bond rating. This insight concerning the additional risk represented by a firm's postretirement benefits is beyond that supplied by the firm's pension information. This suggests that the additional investor default risk attributed to a firm's OPEB can be reasonably proxied by data found in the company's annual report footnote disclosures.     

Sovereign risk assessment and agency credit ratings

Sovereign ratings are gaining importance as more governments with greater default risk borrow in international bond markets. However, while the ratings have proved useful to governments seeking market access, the difficulty of assessing sovereign risk has led to agency disagreements and public controversy over specific rating assignments. Recognising this difficulty, the financial markets have shown some scepticism toward sovereign ratings when pricing issues.     

Large portfolio losses

This paper provide a large-deviations approximation of the tail distribution of total financial losses on a portfolio consisting of many positions. Applications include the total default losses on a bank portfolio, or the total claims against an insurer. The results may be useful in allocating exposure limits, and in allocating risk capital across different lines of business. Assuming that, for a given total loss, the distress caused by the loss is larger if the loss occurs within a smaller time period, we provide a large-deviations estimate of the likelihood that there will exist a sub-period of the future planning period during which a total loss of the critical severity occurs. Under conditions, this calculation is reduced to the calculation of the likelihood of the same sized loss over an initial time interval whose length is a property of the portfolio and the critical loss level.Received: March 2003Mathematics Subject Classification: 60F10, 91B28, 91B28JEL Classification: G21, G22, G33Amir Dembo is with the Department of Statistics, Stanford University. His research was partially supported by NSF grant #DMS-0072331. Jean-Dominique Deuschel is with the Department of Mathematics, Technische Universität, Berlin. His research was partially supported by DFG grant #663/2-3 and DFG FZT 86. Darrell Duffie is with the Graduate School of Business, Stanford University. We are extremely grateful for research assistance by Nicolae Gârleanu and Gustavo Manso, for conversations with Michael Gordy, and for comments from Michael Stutzer, Peter Carr, David Heath, and David Siegmund.