Copula‐Based Formulas to Estimate Unexpected Credit Losses (The Future of Basel Accords?)

The model used to estimate the capital required to cover unexpected credit losses in financial institutions (Basel II) has some drawbacks that reduce its ability to capture potential joint extreme losses in downturns. This paper suggests an alternative approach based on Copula Theory to overcome such flaws. Similarly to Basel II, the suggested model assumes that defaults are driven by a latent variable which varies as a response to an unobserved factor. On the other hand, the use of copulas allows the identification of asymmetric dependence between defaults which has been registered in the literature. As an example, a specific copula family (Clayton) is adopted to represent the association between the latent variables and a formula to estimate potential unexpected losses at a certain level of confidence is derived. Simulations reveal that, in most of the cases, the alternative model outperforms Basel II for portfolios with right‐tail‐dependent probabilities of default (supposedly, a good representation for real loan portfolios).     

新资本协议下我国商业银行资本管理实践及其发展建议

距2010年底我国新资本协议银行开始实施新资本协议的时间已不足两年，但目前我国商业银行在公司治理和资本管理的各个环节与新资本协议要求尚存在较大差距，突出表现在：银行董事会和高级管理层尽责不到位，资本规划缺乏科学性和前瞻性，资本融资过分考虑资本充足性要求，资本配置和绩效评价仍以标准法计量资本要求为主导等。对此，我国商业银行一方面应加快进行组织流程和业务流程再造，梳理和完善公司治理机制；另一方面要积极推进资本管理向经济资本管理方式转变和大力加强管理技术支持建设等工作，提升资本管理水平。     

Credit Risk Models and Agricultural Lending

Credit risk models are developed and used to estimate capital requirements for agricultural lenders under the New Basel Capital Accord. The study uses credit value-at-risk methods to calculate probability of default, loss given default, and expected and unexpected losses. Two applied models, CreditMetrics and Moody's KMV , are estimated using farm financial data. The results show that the necessary capital for agricultural lenders under the New Basel Accord varies substantially depending on the riskiness and granularity of the portfolio.     

新巴塞尔协议对我国商业银行风险管理的借鉴意义

《新巴塞尔协议》于2006年底在西方10国集团国际活跃银行实施,它对国际银行业风险管理提出了更加完善的要求。虽然我国目前尚不必遵照执行,但由于《新巴塞尔协议》在风险管理上有着先进的理念和科学的方法,对国内商业银行的风险管理具有很大的借鉴意义。因此,我国商业银行要学习《新巴塞尔协议》,推行全面风险管理,提高风险管理水平,加快向国际大银行迈进的步伐。     

A real options approach for evaluating the implementation of a risk-sensitive capital rule in banks

I evaluate a bank's incentives to implement a risk-sensitive regulatory capital rule. The decision making is analyzed within a real options framework where optimal policies are derived in terms of threshold levels of credit risk. I provide a numerical example for the implementation of internal ratings based models for credit risk (the IRB approach) under the new Basel Accord (Basel II).     

新兴市场国家新资本协议实施情况及其发展趋势

本文评述了新资本协议全球实施情况,重点分析了新资本协议在新兴市场国家实施的最新进展,深入剖析了新兴市场国家实施新巴塞尔协议的战略框架和路径,探讨了实施路径、实施成本、实施基础等几个核心问题,以及对我国商业银行实施新资本协议的启示。     

Potential Competitive Effects of Basel II on Banks in SME Credit Markets in the United States

We examine the likely competitive effects of implementation of Basel II capital requirements on banks in the market for credit to SMEs in the U.S. Similar competitive effects from Basel II may occur for other credits and financial instruments in the U.S. and other nations. We address whether reduced risk weights for SME credits extended by large banking organizations that adopt the Advanced Internal Ratings-Based (A-IRB) approach of Basel II might significantly adversely affect the competitive positions of other organizations. The analyses suggest only relatively minor competitive effects on most community banks because the large A-IRB adopters tend to make very different types of SME loans to different types of borrowers than community banks. However, there may be significant adverse effects on the competitive positions of large non-A-IRB banking organizations because the data do not suggest any strong segmentation in SME credit markets among large organizations. JEL classification: G21, G28, G38, L51     

监管改革对国际银行业的影响与中国的应对策略

从逆周期、宏观审慎角度加强监管是危机后的共识。监管改革使全球银行业将面临资本充足率下降、融资需求巨大,融资成本被推高的难题。从中长期来看,银行还将面临贷款增长疲软的境况,中间业务将是未来盈利关键,业务模式将回归简单化和本土化等。然而,巴塞尔Ⅲ没有触及金融危机发生的根本制度性原因,即以美元货币为主导的货币体制引发的经济失衡,没有解决宏观审慎和微观审慎之间的监管协调问题,对于跨境金融监管合作和混业监管问题也还没有提出有效的措施。为应对改革对银行业产生的长期结构性影响,中国政府可考虑创新融资方式,建立资本保险机制、允许资产证券化等举措,为中国银行业资本募集创造良好的条件,中国银行业则须从成本缩减、业务模式转换、重新考量流动性等方面全面应对。     

新资本协议下经济资本计量的实用方法

经济资本是新资本协议下银行信用风险控制与管理的重要手段,但在实践中却远未成熟。本文辨析了非预期损失和经济资本的关系,从符合监管要求和便于操作实施的角度出发,介绍了基于期权定价理论和基于新资本协议资本计提公式的实用计量方法．从理论依据、计算步骤和应用评价三个维度进行了阐述。最后,对商业银行实施经济资本计量提出了若干建议。     

Regulations and Productivity Growth in Banking: Evidence from Transition Economies

This paper examines the relationship between the regulatory and supervision framework, and the productivity of banks in 22 countries over the period 1999–2009. We follow a semiparametric two‐step approach that combines Malmquist index estimates with bootstrap regressions. The results indicate that regulations and incentives that promote private monitoring (PMON) have a positive impact on productivity. Restrictions on banks’ activities relating to their involvement in securities, insurance, real estate, and ownership of nonfinancial firms also have a positive impact. Regulations relating to the first and second pillars of Basel II, namely, capital requirements (CAPR) and official supervisory power (SPR) do not have, in general, a statistically significant impact on productivity over the study period although they appear to gain in importance following the onset of the financial crisis in 2007. The latter finding indicates that stringent capital and supervisory standards have positive productivity effects when financial pressures peak. Our results are robust when controlling for various country‐specific features and alternative estimation approaches.