Performance of the different RAROC models and their relation with the creation of economic value. A study of the largest banks operating in Brazil

This article approaches several different methodologies for calculation of the RAROC (Risk Adjusted Return on Capital) for Brazilian banks. Two questions gave reason to the study: whether the application of different methods for calculation of the RAROC would generate significantly different results?, and checking what is the connection between the RAROC and the generation of economic value, measured by the EVA (Economic Value Added), for the largest banks with operations in Brazil? The following methodologies for verification of the RAROC were applied: Buch’s Method (2011); Prokopczuk’s Method (2006); Prokopczuk’s Method (2006) with application of the VaR technique; Saunders’s Method (2007); Chapelle’s Method (2008); and the Smithon & Hayt Method (2001), by applying these parametric and non-parametric statistics in order to check the sensibility of the differences between models. This study has evidenced that, when we compare the methodology based on minimum capital with other methodologies, there are no significant differences, except in the few cases indicated. It is important to notice it only occurred in the case of the Bank of Brazil and it was concentrated in the comparison of the Creditmetrics models and in the methodology in which there is equivalence by the reference equity.     

How to make regulators and shareholders happy under Basel III

In addition to the Basel II capital ratio, Basel III requires banks to respect additional ratios, such as leverage ratio, liquidity coverage ratio and net stable funding ratio. Banks are required to be compliant with all four constraints simultaneously. Our article provides a framework for banks to help their search for an optimal transition from Basel II to Basel III. Recognizing that banks’ return and the four constraints are of linear type, this search can be formulated as a linear program and solved by standard software. Incorporating uncertainty on future defaults, risk weights and withdrawals and formulating the problem as a Chance constrained model does not only yield optimal transition strategies but also determines the internal thresholds for the Basel III-ratios. Our approach needs two standard inputs from controlling: profit margins per product and non-financial adjustment costs to expand or cut back business. The adjustment cost can be used to calibrate the model to the current business mix. This calibration can be done by bank outsiders and allows the model to be used in impact studies to replace ad hoc strategies. To highlight its practicality, we apply our model to a typical German bank with a business mix that complies with Basel II, but not with the Basel III-, capital-, leverage- and net stable funding-ratio. Assuming that its business model is optimal under Basel II, we find that this bank would achieve compliance restructuring its funding side by replacing interbank funding by capital and retail deposits. Additional uncertainty would amplify the magnitude of the changes, but would still affect the same positions. These findings are robust against alternative margin definitions and adjustment cost levels.     

What drives the liquidity of sovereign bonds when markets are under stress? An assessment of the new Basel 3 rules on bank liquid assets

The new rules on bank liquidity set by the Basel Committee require banks to hold high-quality liquid assets (HQLAs) against future cash outflows in periods of market stress. Domestic government bonds are considered to be HQLAs. To assess the appropriateness of this rule, we investigate the liquidity of European government bonds in ordinary times and in periods of market turmoil. We find that the effect of adverse market conditions on liquidity strongly depends on individual bond’s characteristics. Our evidence argues for rules on HQLAs that should constrain the eligibility of government bonds depending on their characteristics (primarily, duration and rating).     

Sovereign collateral as a Trojan Horse: Why do we need an LCR+

Sovereign bonds are widely used as collateral in banks’ funding and trading operations. If a sovereign becomes distressed, the collateral mechanism impairs and banks are suddenly facing significant liquidity calls. Basel III's Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) protects banks against unexpected liquidity calls, but currently excludes sovereign distress. Thus, all banks fulfilling the LCR are still exposed to a liquidity risk stemming from distressed sovereign debt and materializing through the collateral channel. Our paper shows that this unaddressed risk can translate into a system-wide liquidity shock. To gauge the potential damage caused by such a shock, we develop a model based on banks’ home sovereign exposures and a bundle of simplifying assumptions in which sovereign distress triggers bank distress. Our model describes how deteriorating sovereign collateral can lead to an overall liquidity squeeze and non-compliance with Basel III liquidity standards. As this risk is too material to be neglected, we propose an alternative version of the LCR, LCR+, which includes the liquidity impact of sovereign distress.     

Basel III and Central Banks With Multiple Objectives： Convergences Between Targets

This text evaluates the convergence among the main targets of a Central Bank, like the Brazilian Central Bank, with that deals with objectives such as inflation targeting, bank regulation, and financial inclusion, when it operates subject to the Bank for International Settlements （BIS） recommendations gathered in the recent Basel III agreement. A Brazilian conjuncture analysis starts with the economic stabilization plan known as Piano Real （July, 1994） and takes account that, from 2007 onwards, the world economy is going through troubled times unchained by the international financial crisis that motivated the recent Basel Agreement （Basel III）. There are two lines of analysis： macroeconomic and marketing. From the macroeconomic approach, there are plenty models to predict money supply and monetary aggregates. From a marketing perspective, it can be inferred that technologies potentially innovatives may alter the current scenario. The financial time series chosen are： daily money supply, banking reserves, and annual inflation （monthly announced）. The first statistical and empirical evidences from the period （July, 1994 to December, 2011） show that the management of banking reserves does not interfere with the continuous growth of the monetary base plus demand deposits （M1） and cash in circulation, which possibly indicates an increasing financial inclusion. Moreover, there is no evidence that it creates inflationary pressures. The future works may require competencies pertinent to prospective finance and consumer behavior （marketing）.     

基於巴塞尔协议的中国上市金融业实证研究

本研究探讨中国上市金融业资产风险与管制资本的关系。论文以1993年至2002年间上市的金融业为样本。实证结果发现:(1)控制了流动性风险、规模、总体经济等因素后,资本比率与资产风险间成显著正相关,破产理论或管制理论适用于解释样本期间内中国上市金融业风险与资本运作间的关系。(2)1997年参照巴塞尔协议实施相关法规办法以后,金融业资产风险上升,显示此项管制并未达成降低风险的效果。(3)管制实施以后,为维持净资产收益率,金融机构的资产风险反而较管制前为高。(4)核心资本是金融业吸收损失的主要来源。     

论中国金融风险管理的主要方法

新巴塞尔协议作为国际金融监管和金融风险管理的新标准,其意义不仅仅体现在指导银行的资本充足率水平和信用风险管理等方面,对中国金融风险管理的发展也有借鉴意义。对于中国金融风险管理而言,信息不对称和监管机制不完善是目前的主要问题。随着国际金融风险的加剧与潜在危机的扩散,长期处于封闭式管理的中国金融机构必须与国际接轨,参照先进国际金融系统的规则与标准,在借鉴新巴塞尔协议的风险防范机制和金融监管机制基础之上,制定中国特色的金融风险管理标准和监管体系。     

在华外资银行的发展现状及监管体系

外资银行进入中国,最关键的贡献在于向中国银行业展示了现代银行特有的治理机制和先进的管理方式,促进了中国银行业服务水平的改进,加快了中国经济改革的步伐.外资银行的监管是伴随外资银行的进入开始的.2006年,中国将应入世承诺全面开放金融业领域,更多外资银行业务将通过合法程序进入中国金融市场,因此当前全面分析外资银行在我国的发展现状及监管体系具有重大的现实指导意义.     

Some Reflections on the Ubiquity of Regulation

The authors argue, using historical examples from finance, the production of wine and music, that competition within the rule of law, without government regulation, produces desirable outcomes.     

国际银行业统一监管体系的发展与完善

布雷顿森林体系解体以来,银行业发展迅速,机构跨国化,业务多样化以及创新工具不断涌现,金融危机频发,急需一个有效的国际统一监管体系。巴塞尔委员会自1975年成立以来,对国际银行统一监管发挥了重要作用,文章就巴塞尔协议这35年以来的发展趋势进行了研究,并试图找出新协议的缺陷和仍需继续改进的地方,提出进一步完善的重点。