浅谈当前形势下个人银行业务面临的机遇与挑战

近年来,银行的零售业务迅速发展,已经成为银行三大支柱业务之一,本文将简述目前个人银行业务面临的机遇与挑战,并对下一步个人银行业务发展方向提出浅薄建议。     

Monetary policy in open economies: Practical perspectives for pragmatic central bankers

This paper reviews and interprets some of the key policy implications that flow from a class of DSGE models for optimal monetary policy in the open economy. The framework suggests that good macroeconomic outcomes in open economies are possible by focusing inflation targeting that is implemented by a Taylor type rule, a rule that in equilibrium is reflected in the exchange rate as an asset price. Optimal monetary policy will not be able deliver a stationary (‘stable’) nominal exchange rate – let alone a fixed exchange rate or one that remains inside a target zone – because, absent a commitment device, optimal monetary can’t deliver a stationary domestic price level. Another feature in the data for inflation targeting countries that is consistent with monetary policy via Taylor type rule is that it will tend push the nominal exchange rate in the opposite direction from PPP in response to an ‘inflation’ shock—the ‘bad news god news’ result of Clarida and Waldman (2008. Is Bad News about Inflation Good News for the Exchange Rate. In: John Campbell, (Ed.), Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, Chicago: University of Chicago Press), Clarida and Waldman (2014. Bad News About Inflation is Good News for the Nominal Exchange Rate Under Optimal Monetary Policy: DSGE Theory and a Decade of Empirical Evidence). This is so even though in the long run of these models the nominal exchange rate must in expectation obey PPP.     

New development: Can ‘public’ market-based solutions restore the banking system? The case of non-performing loans (NPLs)

The authors discuss how policy-makers could use new market-based solutions to dismantle NPLs. They examine viable solutions for NPLs and then study the Italian State Guarantee Scheme for NPL Securitization (GACS) to highlight how public actors could efficiently use public resources to solve the NPL problem.     

Consumer experiences,attitude and behavioral intention toward online food delivery (OFD) services

Prior research has mostly examined consumer attitudes toward online services/retailing in general and a few researchers have addressed consumer experiences with online food delivery (OFD) services. The purpose of this study is to examine the structural relationship between convenience motivation, post-usage usefulness, hedonic motivation, price saving orientation, time saving orientation, prior online purchase experience, consumer attitude and behavioral intention towards OFD services. The study proposes an integrative theoretical research model based on the Contingency Framework and Extended Model of IT Continuance. 224 valid questionnaires were collected to empirically test the research model using the partial least square (PLS) path modeling approach. The results imply that the proposed hypotheses were supported, except for the relationship between prior online purchase experience and post-usage usefulness. Practical implications and limitations are discussed.     

Sources of business fluctuations: Financial or technology shocks?

Despite the widespread belief that technology shocks are the main source of business fluctuations, recent empirical studies indicate that in the absence of financial frictions, a shock to the marginal efficiency of investment is the main source and is closely related to financial conditions for investment. We incorporate a financial accelerator mechanism and two types of financial shocks to the external finance premium and net worth in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with shocks to the marginal efficiency of investment, the investment-good price markup, and the rates of neutral and investment-specific technological changes. This model is estimated using eleven US time series that include data on loan, net worth, the loan rate, and the relative price of investment. Our estimation results show that the (non-stationary) neutral and investment-specific technology shocks primarily drive output and investment fluctuations, while the external finance premium shock plays an important role for investment fluctuations. This financial shock induced substantial falls and subsequent sharp hikes in the external finance premium and caused boom–bust cycles over the past two decades.     

Foreign investment,corporate governance and performance in the Chinese listed A Share companies

We present a novel lens on the presence and impact of qualified foreign institutional investors (QFII) in top shareholdings of the non-financial domestically listed Chinese ‘A’ share firms. The initial results suggest that the presence of a QFII as a top shareholder in these companies is associated with their better performance, using both Tobin’s Q and ROA as the performance measures. Our models include variables representing corporate governance mechanisms, foreign legal person shares, a proxy for international affiliations and a number of time-variant firm characteristics. Economically, the coefficient of impact on the market measure is the more significant, while the effect of having a QFII in top shareholdings on both performance measures is empirically significant. Previously, studies have often ignored the potential for reverse causality beyond using lagged regressors. This is problematic. Therefore, we follow up with a 2SLS instrumental variables and system GMM model to further mitigate this potential and find the empirical relationship holds. Contrary to earlier work on QFIIs and governance post-implementation of the QFII scheme, the findings from our models suggest that the presence of a QFII top shareholder augments market performance holding equal existing corporate governance mechanisms and other controls.     

我国消费金融业务的发展困境及对策刍议

根据2009年银监会文件成立的四家消费金融公司，是我国在拓展内需促进经济发展模式转型过程中作出的有益尝试，在前期发展过程中体现出自身的价值。文章针对消费金融公司前期发展过程中出现的业务发展较慢等问题，进行了简要的分析评述，并结合2014年开始施行的《消费金融公司试点管理办法》，针对发展困境提出了对策与建议。     

Islamic equity market integration and volatility spillover between emerging and US stock markets

The purpose of this paper is to study the conditional correlations across the US market and a sample of five Islamic emerging markets, namely Turkey, Indonesia, Pakistan, Qatar, and Malaysia. The empirical design uses MSCI (Morgan Stanley Capital International) Islamic equity index since it applies stringent restrictions to include companies. Indeed, two main restrictions must be met: (i) the business activity must be compliant with Shari’ah (i.e., Islamic law) guidelines and (ii) interest-bearing investments and leverage ratios should not exceed upper limits. Three models are used: multivariate GARCH BEKK, CCC, and DCC. The estimation results of the three models show that the US and Islamic emerging equity markets are weakly correlated over time. No sheer evidence supports that the US market spills over into the Islamic emerging equity markets. Besides interpreting the results in terms of weak market integration, the peculiar specificities of the Islamic finance industry and the admittance conditions to the MSCI Islamic equity index contribute to explaining them. Indeed, Islamic finance bans interest-bearing investments and imposes some rules, such as asset-backing, which has sizeable impacts on volatility spillover and shocks transmissions, alongside with the close linkage between real and financial sectors. These findings suggest that investors should take caution when investing in the Islamic emerging equity markets and diversifying their portfolios in order to minimize risk.     

Financialization of Housing in Brazil: New Frontiers

The financialization of housing has been increasingly identified as an important driver of social and economic change in contemporary capitalism. Focusing on the Brazilian context, this article considers the extent to which recent changes in housing regulations, policies and markets confirm or challenge narratives about the financialization of housing in the international academic debate. I argue that while many of the trends stressed in the literature are apparent, more extreme processes of financialization within the Brazilian housing sector remain limited––not only because of institutional and regulatory constraints, path dependence or political resistance, but also because of fundamental structural conditions of Brazil's position as a peripheral economy. Three different but mutually reinforcing processes are scrutinized in order to evaluate the financialization of housing and its limits in Brazil: the re‐regulation of the real estate financial sector initiated in the 1990s; the changing funding patterns among real estate companies since the mid‐2000s; and the increasing commodification of housing induced by a large‐scale and heavily subsidized housing program launched in 2009.     

Can Arabic Proverbs Enhance Arabic-Speaking Students’ Comprehension of Financial Concepts?: An Empirical Study in Randomly Selected Business Schools in Dubai

In this study, we investigated the use of Arabic proverbs and quotes for teaching finance courses to Arabic-speaking students who are nonnative speakers of English. The study found that the use of Arabic proverbs and quotes greatly enhances the students’ comprehension of the finance topics covered. Similarly, the study revealed that the use of Arabic proverbs and quotes for Arabic-speaking students in teaching finance courses creates rapport between the student and instructor, thus enhancing learning. Finally, the study confirmed that the use of Arabic proverbs and quotes for Arabic-speaking students in teaching finance courses does not lead to confusion or complicate matters, but enhances comprehension and bolsters retention.