对金融活动公平性的伦理关注

在世界金融发展中,金融活动的公平性已经成为金融发展的重要标志之一。中国金融活动的公平问题亦是一个难以回避的问题,对中国金融公平性的关注,不只是对金融活动的伦理关注,也是对金融活动自身完善性的表现。在中国现代金融建设中,如何体现金融活动的公平性是一项长期而艰难的任务,是金融业健康发展的内在动力。     

Sources of business fluctuations: Financial or technology shocks?

Despite the widespread belief that technology shocks are the main source of business fluctuations, recent empirical studies indicate that in the absence of financial frictions, a shock to the marginal efficiency of investment is the main source and is closely related to financial conditions for investment. We incorporate a financial accelerator mechanism and two types of financial shocks to the external finance premium and net worth in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with shocks to the marginal efficiency of investment, the investment-good price markup, and the rates of neutral and investment-specific technological changes. This model is estimated using eleven US time series that include data on loan, net worth, the loan rate, and the relative price of investment. Our estimation results show that the (non-stationary) neutral and investment-specific technology shocks primarily drive output and investment fluctuations, while the external finance premium shock plays an important role for investment fluctuations. This financial shock induced substantial falls and subsequent sharp hikes in the external finance premium and caused boom–bust cycles over the past two decades.     

徐州地区农村金融体系的优化模式研究

通过对徐州地区新农村建设示范村的实地走访和调查,对徐州地区农村金融的现状、问题进行了比较详细的阐述,在此基础上提出了优化徐州地区农村金融体系的具体路径。     

新农村建设背景下的农村金融改革探析

支持社会主义新农村建设的农村金融功能没有得到应有的充分的释放,究其原因在于农村金融体系建设的碎片化,导致农村金融市场发育的不完善,具体表现在农村金融供需的不平衡,农村金融的市场分割,政府管理的失灵。为此,必须采用系统论的方法,寻找突破农村金融体系建设困境的路径：完善农村金融市场的外围支撑体系,在两个＂统筹＂理念下完善农村金融市场体系。     

Dynamic response of bank-intermediated trade finance to a global liquidity shock

This paper investigates the bank-level responses of a bank-intermediated instrument of trade finance to a negative global liquidity shock in Korea. Using a factor-augmented vector autoregression approach, the results show that there exists significant heterogeneity in bank-level trade-finance responses to a global liquidity shock. In addition, we find that the source of the heterogeneity is the bank-level foreign currency liquidity condition; banks with a better foreign currency liquidity condition may dampen the negative impact of a global liquidity shock on trade-finance.     

Exogenous and Endogenous Attention and the Convergence of Analysts’ Forecasts

The propensity of the forecasts of sell-side financial analysts to converge (or diverge) is a function of their exogenous and endogenous selective attention and overconfidence. When returns are negative, the endogenous form of selective attention—a static measure of analysts’ goal-driven attention at a particular point in time—has a positive association with convergence. The exogenous form of selective attention—a relatively involuntary dynamic process of exogenous attentional shift driven by external changes in the market over time—is associated with a tendency for forecasts to diverge.     

Time,Arbitrage, and the Law of One Price: The Case for a Paradigm Shift

Consider a Competitive, Efficient, and Frictionless Economy (CEFE) where resources are scarce at any date, and hence money as a valid claim against scarce resources is also scarce. In this economy, there is always price competition, which can at any date generate an unlimited number of arbitrage opportunities. For example, at any date, opportunities can exist to buy and sell each one of the contracts for delivery of the same good or asset at multiple prices currently as well as on an infinite number of future dates. I prove all arbitrage transactions, including “spot” transactions, tie up arbitrageurs’ capital representing money, good or asset such that this capital cannot be used for any other purpose for a non-zero quantity of time. This makes it impossible to exploit all arbitrage opportunities with the scarce capital available at any date and leads to an infinite number of unexploited opportunities and a non-negligible opportunity cost of the capital tied-up in arbitrage transactions, represented by each arbitrageur’s best missed arbitrage opportunity, if no better opportunity exits, hence the breakdown of the law of one price in its standard sense. This helps construct a new paradigm of CEFE which resolves long-standing theoretical, empirical, and experimental puzzles.     

财政学中的国家观:分歧与比较——对当前财政基础理论的一点反思

当前的公共财政体系理应具备公共性,是毋庸置疑的。但学界却在如何理解财政的公共性问题上莫衷一是,通过分析和比较之后可以发现,不同观点的分歧与其背后的国家观有着某种必然的联系,而且貌似冲突和抵牾的国家观,其实代表了不同层次的理论抽象。一方面,我们需要根据被研究的问题进行取舍;另一方面,整个财政学理论体系不应该也不可能只建立在某一特定层次的国家观之上。而公共性之所以是财政与生俱来的本质属性,是因为国家作为一个行动主体的行为目标和模式使然,所以当我们从理论层面把握公共性的概念和实质之时,不能只局限于市场经济国家,需要放宽研究视野,至少必须正视中国以往的历史经验和基本规律。     

金融与区域发展国际研究进展及启示

关于金融与区域发展关系的研究大多沿用宏观金融发展理论的思路和方法来分析金融与区域发展的关系,以两者的因果关系和识别金融促进区域经济增长的机制为重点,往往将区域视为封闭的、孤立的,忽略区域所具有的空间结构属性。而最近一些研究极其强调自地理学的空间视角来研究金融及其与区域发展的关系。这些研究多来自金融地理学领域,一些来自区域金融学领域,文章从金融空间和金融空间与区域发展两个方面评述国际有关研究,在此基础上提出我国需要特别关注的金融与区域发展问题。     

人民币实际汇率水平的合理性评估:1994-2008

本文基于行为均衡汇率模型,采用1994年第1季度-2008年第2季度的时序数据样本,运用自回归分布滞后模型测算了人民币均衡实际汇率,并对人民币实际汇率的合理性进行了评估.分析结果表明,经济基本面因素能较好地拟合人民币实际汇率的变化过程;人民币实际汇率经历了三次低估和三次高估,但失调程度并不严重.