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31.
Monitoring business cycles faces two potentially conflicting objectives: accuracy and timeliness. To strike a balance between these dual objectives, we propose a Bayesian sequential quickest detection method to identify turning points in real time with a sequential stopping time as a solution. Using four monthly indexes of real economic activity in the United States, we evaluated the method’s real-time ability to date the past five recessions. The proposed method identified similar turning-point dates as the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), with no false alarms, but on average, it dated peaks four months faster and troughs 10 months faster relative to the NBER announcement. The timeliness of our method is also notable compared to the dynamic factor Markov-switching model: the average lead time was about five months when dating peaks and two months when dating troughs. 相似文献
32.
云南省旅游资源十分丰富,在信息技术飞速发展的今天,旅游与互联网的关系也日益紧密。通过发展旅游电子商务来加快云南省旅游资源的开发,带动全省经济发展就为了大家共同关注的话题。但云南开展旅游电子商务的现状却不客乐观,本文从介绍云南旅游电子商务现状入手,分析了云南开展旅游电子商务中存在的问题,提出了解决方案。 相似文献
33.
Rennison (Comparing alternative output gap estimations: a Monte Carlo approach, 2003) has provided simulation-based evidence showing that the joint use of extended multivariate filters and structural vector autoregression models is optimal for estimating potential output. We use this approach to estimate the two components of potential GDP: the full-employment labour input and trend labour productivity. This decomposition is useful for identifying sources of fluctuations in potential output. It reveals, for example, that the vigorous growth rate of U.S. potential GDP recorded during the second half of the 1990s is attributable to a fall in the structural rate of unemployment and a marked upswing in trend productivity growth. 相似文献
34.
浅议我国商业银行中间业务的法律风险与防范对策 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
邵宇 《新疆财经学院学报》2006,(3):24-27
商业银行中间业务的开展对促进商业银行提高经营效益、降低银行风险,以及实现可持续发展等方面发挥了重要作用。然而现阶段我国商业银行发展中间业务时面临诸多法律风险,如立法上的缺陷、法律的滞后性等。因而,应积极制定有关法律、法规,适度监管,为商业银行中间业务的开展营造良好的法律环境。 相似文献
35.
Summary. We exploit the existence of matrix group symmetries on a production possibility set to identify group symmetries on the profit function. The groups are isomorphic, and provide a pre-ordering on firm preferences over prices. Together with additional structure on the technology, symmetries generate comparative statics on price responses. Linear and other invariances place bounds on firm choice vectors. Reflection group asymmetries on the feasible choice set also support welfare rankings over prices. The methods are adapted to study consumer decisions.Received: 12 August 2002, Revised: 30 January 2004, JEL Classification Numbers:
D11, D21, C60, L23.
Correspondence to: David A. Hennessy 相似文献
36.
37.
Summary. We seek to explain the economic volatility of the last 6 years, in particular the rapid expansion and contraction of the knowledge sectors. Our hypothesis is that these sectors amplify the business cycle due to their increasing returns to scale, growing faster than others in an upswing and contracting faster in a downswing. To test this hypothesis we postulate a general equilibrium model with two sectors: one with increasing returns that are external to the firm and endogenously determined - the knowledge sector - and the other with constant returns to scale. We introduce a new measure of volatility of output, a real beta, and derive a resolving equation, from which we prove that the increasing return sectors exhibit more volatility then other sectors. We validate the main results on US macro economic data of real GDP by industry (2-3 digits SIC codes) of the 1977-2001 period, and provide policy conclusions.Received: 18 March 2002, Revised: 16 February 2004, JEL Classification Numbers:
D5, D58, E10, L50, L52, O38, O51.Correspondence to: Graciela Chichilnisky 相似文献
38.
Vijay Mahajan Herman W. Lay Chair Professor of Marketing 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》1985,28(1):13-27
In order to assess the impact of patent infringement on the growth of a new product, a model is developed through the intervention model development processes of Box-Jenkins and Box-Tiao. Physical interpretations of model parameters and determination of associated damages suggest that the model can provide a sound basis for analyzing patent infringement disputes. 相似文献
39.
目前,学术界对于商业模式的定义和应包含的要素始终没有统一的认识。界定商业模式与企业战略之间的内在联系,研究商业模式设计的步骤和程序,以价值链分析方法为主线,拓展和延伸出在新的商业生态系统环境下更为适用的分析方法和商业模式设计建构的框架和路径,具有重要价值。 相似文献
40.