非均衡的经济动态模型

本文旨在按现实世界的本来面目建立一个非均衡的内生经济动态模型。在这个模型中 ,源于部门内和部门间关系的内生变量导致资本市场、消费品市场上产量和价格的波动。市场的非均衡过程、存货调节机制以及经济人的最优行为和适应性行为是基于对现实世界的观察进行模拟的。静态性质及其稳定性是作为一般市场动态过程的特例加以讨论的。     

Seasonality and Markov switching in an unobserved component time series model

It is generally acknowledged that the growth rate of output, the seasonal pattern, and the business cycle are best estimated simultaneously. To achieve this, we develop an unobserved component time series model for seasonally unadjusted US GDP. Our model incorporates a Markov switching regime to produce periods of expansion and recession, both of which are characterized by different underlying growth rates. Although both growth rates are time-varying, they are assumed to be cointegrated. The analysis is Bayesian, which fully accounts for all sources of uncertainty. Comparison with results from a similar model for seasonally adjusted data indicates that the seasonal adjustment of the data significantly alters several aspects of the full model. First Version Received: January 2001/Final Version Received: February 2002 Send offprint requests to: Rob Luginbuhl?Correspondence to: Rob Luginbuhl     

“新经济”与经济周期

20世纪 90年代 ,美国等西方发达国家进入了以知识经济为基础的“新经济”时代。“新经济”的发展的确使经济周期出现了一些与以往不同的新特点 ,但它没有也不可能从根本上消除经济周期本身。那种认为“新经济”可以消除经济周期的观点是没有现实依据的     

构建现代企业财务管理机制的思考

落后的财务管理思想、机制和方法,是中国企业规模小、效益差、生命周期短的深层次的和根本的原因。因此,建立完善的现代企业财务管理机制是提高我国企业经济效益和建立现代企业制度的重要途径。财务管理机制作为现代企业管理系统中最为重要的子系统,它应该围绕运行机制、动力机制、监督机制和控制机制四项内容而建立和完善。     

Marketing versus public relations in selling nuclear power

All too often, the terminology and practices of public relations are used when marketing is what is really needed. This misapplication appears most often when a concept, an idea, or an intangible product is involved. Webster defines public relations as: relations with the general public through publicity; those functions of a corporation, organization, branch of military service, etc., concerned with informing the public of its activities, policies, etc., and attempting to create favorable public opinion.This definition implies a general, ongoing effort to supply information supporting the image of an organization. There is, however, a considerable difference between this kind of activity and the specific, overt process of marketing. This difference has been particularly apparent in attempts of public utilities to “sell” nuclear power plants. Utilities, of course, are monopoly suppliers and, as such, must seek a favorable image in the community. Thus, when public opposition to nuclear power plants mounted, many utilities responded with stepped-up public relations programs; the method they knew best. This article examines the experience of several utilities in locating nuclear plants and suggests how marketing techniques might be used in selling this intangible product.     

Foreign-currency transactions and the recovery of German industry in the aftermath of the First World War: the case of Schering AG

While historians have for a long time recognized the importance of the First World War to the general flow of history, business economists do not fully appreciate the impact of the war on commercial relationships. The First World War transformed the political, economic, and social context, in which business was done, forcing companies to develop new strategies and activities, some of which were almost unimaginable before August 1914. This article focuses on one aspect of doing business: foreign exchange management. It argues that Schering AG and its parent, like many German companies after the First World War, were obliged to refocus their activities around their foreign exchange exposures and that the management of foreign exchange issues contributed to a much tighter relationship between businesses, government, and business associations than had existed before the war and for which some aspects of Germany's system of corporate control were not well adapted to handle.     

证券经纪法律探析

证券纪经作为一个商事代理活动 ,在证券交易中发挥着极其重要的作用。本文对证券经纪的法律性质、涉及的法律关系及证券经纪人的权利、义务进行了详细的分析 ,希对该种商事代理活动有个较为全面的了解     

Business suppliers' value creation potential : A capability-based analysis

Joint value creation through partnering and networking is a topic of current interest. This paper proposes that the dimensions of the supplier's value creation in a supplier-customer relationship could be classified according to efficiency, effectiveness and network functions. These functions are interrelated, but they are conceptually distinct. The value creation process could be described as a spectrum ranging from core value, to added value, to future value. The value-producing potential of a supplier can be assessed reasonably well only in the case of the core value, where there is sufficient benchmarking information in the form of existing alternative offerings and solutions. A priori evaluation of the costs and benefits of added value and, especially, future value projects is problematic, because the realisation of the value is dependent on the development of multiple partners, technologies and industries. In these cases, we suggest that a customer could use a supplier's capability profile as an indicator of how suitable that particular supplier is for specific value creation projects. A framework connecting specific capabilities to different types of value production is suggested, and its managerial implications are discussed.     

股权结构的内生性：从我国基于控股股东的内部资本市场得到的证据

上市公司IPO时的股权结构是如何形成的?与先前文献只从业绩考察股权结构内生性不同的是,本文从基于控股股东的内部资本市场及其背后的利益动机出发,认为控股股东与上市公司IPO前的业务关联性、组织形式和产权性质等特征形成的内部资本市场,是上市公司IPO股权结构形成的主要影响因素。本文对1999—2004年IPO公司的研究有力地支持了上述假设。并且,股票发行制度改革前(国有企业、地方政府控制)相对于改革后(非国有企业、中央政府控制),其股权结构的形成更容易受政府干预和政策变化的影响,但很少受IPO前公司业绩的影响。这说明股票发行制度的改革确实有助于减少政府不合理干预,真正实现企业根据自身情况自主选择股权结构。