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MICHAEL P. CLEMENTS 《Journal of Money, Credit and Banking》2011,43(1):207-220
I consider the possibility that respondents to the Survey of Professional Forecasters round their probability forecasts of the event that real output will decline in the future, as well as their reported output growth probability distributions. I make various plausible assumptions about respondents’ rounding practices, and show how these impinge upon the apparent mismatch between probability forecasts of a decline in output and the probabilities of this event implied by the annual output growth histograms. I find that rounding accounts for about a quarter of the inconsistent pairs of forecasts. 相似文献
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In this paper we use multivariate affine generalized hyperbolic (MAGH) distributions, introduced by Schmidt et al. (2006), to show how to price multidimensional derivatives when the underlying asset follows a MAGH distribution. We also illustrate the approach using market data from the BOVESPA (São Paulo Stock Exchange) and the exchange rate of the Brazilian Real vs. US Dollar to price some multidimensional derivatives. 相似文献
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Hideyuki Takamizawa 《International Review of Finance》2015,15(3):347-386
This study examines whether information on the yield curve is useful for predicting volatility of the yield curve. The information is used within dynamic models by specifying the covariance matrix of changes in yield factors as nonlinear functions of the factors. Using such models, it is found that the information (i) is useful for predicting volatility of the slope factor, achieving the accuracy comparable with the GARCH model; (ii) has incremental value for predicting volatility of the curvature factor when combined with a volatility‐specific factor; and (iii) does not much improve prediction of volatility of the level factor once the volatility‐specific factor is introduced. 相似文献
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This paper studies a time-varying coefficient time series model with a time trend function and serially correlated errors to characterize the nonlinearity, nonstationarity, and trending phenomenon. A local linear approach is developed to estimate the time trend and coefficient functions. The asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators, coupled with their comparisons with other methods, are established under the α-mixing conditions and without specifying the error distribution. Further, the asymptotic behaviors of the estimators at the boundaries are examined. The practical problem of implementation is also addressed. In particular, a simple nonparametric version of a bootstrap test is adapted for testing misspecification and stationarity, together with a data-driven method for selecting the bandwidth and a consistent estimate of the standard errors. Finally, results of two Monte Carlo experiments are presented to examine the finite sample performances of the proposed procedures and an empirical example is discussed. 相似文献
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George Kapetanios 《Oxford bulletin of economics and statistics》2007,69(3):363-386
The persistence properties of economic time series have been a primary object of investigation in a variety of guises since the early days of econometrics. Recently, work on nonlinear modelling for time series has introduced the idea that persistence of a shock at a point in time may vary depending on the state of the process at that point in time. This article suggests investigating the persistence of processes conditioning on their history as a tool that may aid parametric nonlinear modelling. In particular, we suggest that examining the nonparametrically estimated derivatives of the conditional expectation of a variable with respect to its lag(s) may be a useful indicator of the variation in persistence with respect to its past history. We discuss in detail the implementation of the measure and present a Monte Carlo investigation. We further apply the persistence analysis to real exchange rates. 相似文献
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Rien J. L. M. Wagenvoort Paul H. Schure 《Oxford bulletin of economics and statistics》2006,68(2):183-201
We introduce a new panel data estimation technique for production and cost functions, the recursive thick frontier approach (RTFA). RTFA has two advantages over existing econometric frontier methods. First, technical inefficiency is allowed to be dependent on the explanatory variables of the frontier model. Secondly, RTFA does not hinge on distributional assumptions on the inefficiency component of the error term. We show by means of simulation experiments that RTFA outperforms the popular stochastic frontier approach and the ‘within’ ordinary least squares estimator for realistic parameterizations of a productivity model. Although RTFAs formal statistical properties are unknown, we argue, based on these simulation experiments, that RTFA is a useful complement to existing methods. 相似文献
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《Journal of Internet Commerce》2013,12(2):33-51
ABSTRACT Although e-commerce is evolving at an incredible speed, asymmetric information and opportunism have increased online purchasing risks and market inefficiencies. The lack of face-to-face contact and the inability of the customer to touch and feel tangible products necessitate that online business must provide customers with reliable information and convince customers of their trustworthiness. While the research on Third-Party Assurance Seals (TPAS) is not new, the effectiveness of TPAS has not been persuasively addressed by empirical studies. Our study is different from previous efforts in that it is comprehensive because it combines consumer trust, perceived risk, and influences of TPAS in the B2C e-commerce context. The results of the study show that (1) the effects of TPAS on perceived risk are channeled through perceived trustworthiness, thus demonstrating the mediating role of perceived trustworthiness in B2C e-commerce, (2) perceived risk, perceived usefulness of website, and subjective norm appear to be significant predictors of intention to purchase from the website, (3) a third-party assurance seal strongly affects online shoppers' perceived trustworthiness toward online retailers, while the seal appears to have little effect on perceived risk directly; perceived risk is strongly associated with intention to purchase from the website. 相似文献
19.
This paper presents a strategic model of risk-taking behavior in contests. Formally, we analyze an n-player winner-take-all contest in which each player decides when to stop a privately observed Brownian motion with drift. A player whose process reaches zero has to stop. The player with the highest stopping point wins. Unlike the explicit cost for a higher stopping time in a war of attrition, here, higher stopping times are riskier, because players can go bankrupt. We derive a closed-form solution of a Nash equilibrium outcome. In equilibrium, highest expected losses occur at an intermediate negative value of the drift. 相似文献
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