人民币兑美元汇率的风险测量

风险价值 (VaR)是一种计算金融市场风险的综合方法。基于ARCH模型的方差—协方差法计算VaR的基本原则 ,选取人民币 /美元的每日汇率为研究对象 ,测度了人民币兑美元汇率的风险轨迹。     

Dialectical mind can be sweet toward crisis‐associated products/brands

Consumers’ thinking style (e.g., dialectical thinking), which is fundamental to cognition, has been paid inadequate attention in the consumer literature. This research explores the impact of dialectical thinking on Chinese consumer responses toward crisis‐associated products/brands. Findings in three experimental studies indicate that, in comparison to those primed with nondialectical thinking, consumers primed with dialectical thinking report higher levels of purchase intention and trust for a crisis‐associated product/brand. This is the case not just for products with Chinese cultural background, but also for products with western cultural background. Consumers’ perceived severity of crises moderates the impact of dialectical thinking, with a stronger impact in a highly severe crisis situation than in a less severe one. A survey study indicates a similar pattern. These findings are important in suggesting ways of encouraging Chinese consumers to be insistent on quality standard in order to better protect their consumer rights, and moreover, for multinational corporations on how best to respond and formulate strategies of handling product‐harm crises in the Chinese market.     

不同企业下物流信息系统的实现

本文首先讨论了不同企业建立物流信息系统的前提要求，然后指出了不同企业下构建物流信息系统的基本原则和模式，并提出了在国内的特殊环境下企业构建物流信息系统的几点建议。     

Country of Origin Effect for Food Products from Developing and Transition Countries: A PLS Analysis of German Consumers’ Perception

ABSTRACT

This study investigates the importance of the country of origin (COO) effect in German consumers’ perception of chocolate quality using the example of chocolate made from Ecuadorian raw cocoa. From earlier COO and consumer perception research, a complex research framework grounded in schema and attribution theory has been developed acknowledging the multifactorial character of consumers’ food quality perception. Based on this framework, a PLS analysis of primary data from an online survey of 205 German chocolate consumers is conducted. The results demonstrate the overall applicability of the research framework and give evidence on the underlying complex consumer perception process of COO-labeled food products. For the case of chocolate made from Ecuadorian cocoa, PLS estimations show a strong COO effect in German consumers’ quality perceptions and identify characteristics of the target consumer group. Protecting geographical indications may offer a potential for products from developing and transition countries to differentiate in the German market, a prime example for European markets, and should be promoted more strongly by government offices and NGOs.     

Protected Geographical Indications and Designations of Origin: An Overview of the Status Quo and the Development of the Use of Regulation (EC) 510/06 in Europe,With Special Consideration of the German Situation

This article gives an overview of the current use of the European system of protected designations of origin according to Council Regulation (EC) 510/06, using the example of Germany to demonstrate its implementation as well as evaluating the potential and future development of this system of protection. The considerations show that in a few years the number of protected products in Europe will reach a figure of over 1,000 without the dynamic of new registrations weakening in the midterm. In Germany, the system of Council Regulation (EC) 510/06 has not been used very extensively. Despite this, an increase in the number of protected products can also be expected in Germany due to the promotion orientation of the Central Marketing Association and the European Commission.     

国外一般消费品召回管理机构及召回信息公示工作对我国的启示

2010年《家用电器产品召回管理规定》征求意见稿已面向全社会征求意见。在我国一般消费品召回比起汽车召回才刚刚起步。文章从美国、加拿大、澳大利亚、欧盟、日本等几个一般消费品召回较成熟的国家或地区出发,分析了一般消费品的召回管理机构、法律、召回公示信息等内容,以期对我国一般消费品制度、法律及信息：佥示等内容起到借鉴作用。     

Examination of Multiple Criteria in Health Technology Assessment for Application to Instrumental Analysis

Abstract:

The instrumental-ceremonial dichotomy is the analytical concern emphasized in instrumental analysis by original institutional economists for making welfare decisions. Paul Dale Bush and Wolfram Elsner explained that warranted criteria are required in order to conduct instrumental analysis. The concern for criteria led to an examination of multiple criteria decision analysis in health technology assessment in order to improve instrumental analysis. Health technology assessment (HTA) is one of the most active and extensive areas of analysis for policy making because medical technology changes very rapidly, expenditures on it are high and growing, it can harm as well as help, and there is intense personal concern by citizens who want wellness. Although HTA, especially with regard to the analysis of multiple criteria, has made considerable progress, its appraisal has been a disappointment. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to critique aspects of multiple criteria HTA in order to further develop instrumental analysis.     

A Simple Proof of the Equivalence of the Limiting Distributions of the Continuous-Time and the Embedded Process of the Queue Size in the M/G/1 Queue*

This paper presents an extremely simple proof of the known remarkable fact that for the M/G/1 queue the continuous-time process describing the number of customers in the system has the same limiting distribution as the embedded process describing the number of customers in the system just after service completion epochs.     

基于BP神经网络的我国M2/GDP预测与对策

本文计算了1993年至2005年我国M2/GDP,发现该数据总体呈上升趋势,这一定程度上反映了我国体制上的深层次问题。另外,本文运用带有动量项和自适应学习率的BP神经网络方法预测出我国2006年的M2/GDP是1.6386左右,并提出了一些相应的政策建议。     

我国建筑业全生命周期价值链的应用研究

长期以来,我国建筑业缺乏对全生命周期价值链管理的整体关注,价值链中各个环节相互脱节,没有共同的价值目标,导致了成本较高的现状。本文旨在通过对建筑业全生命周期价值链的分析,拓展我国建筑业成本管理的关注面。并通过工程总承包模式对现有价值链进行优化,把勘察、设计、施工归集在同一个主体下管理,提高用户对建筑产品的满意度,降低产品成本。