SAD效应：一个基于时变风险价格的条件CAPM的解释

很多实证研究都证明季节性情绪混乱(SAD)与股指收益有明显联系。本文研究了这种SAD效应能否用一个包含允许时间变化的风险价格的资产定价模型去捕捉它的存在。本文利用上证综指的日收盘数据得到的初始和超额收益率以及SAD和FALL变量,利用修正的GRACH-M模型进行了分析,认为条件CAPM可以捕捉SAD效应。这与由于日照时间变化而导致的投资者风险承受能力变化进而影响收益的认识相符合。     

对套利定价理论及应用的认识

本文从套利的一般概念入手，分析了套利的基本特点，叙述了套利定价理论(APT)的基本假设，APT的主要推导思路及主要结论，指出了应用APT进行套利交易的一般过程，并对套利定价理论和资本资产定价模型(CAPM)进行了比较，最后提出对几个相关问题的思考。     

The cost of capital in internationally integrated markets: The case of Nestlé

This paper argues that the cost of capital for firms in small countries should be estimated using the global CAPM rather than a local CAPM. Two related formulas showing the mistake made when using a local CAPM rather than a global CAPM are presented. the global CAPM is implemented for the case of Nestlé and the results are compared to the cost of capital estimate one obtains for Nestlé using a local CAPM when the global CAPM is appropriate.     

基于沪深股市的CAPM适用性检验

利用投资组合理论化解非系统风险的关键条件是系统风险能够充分地被β所反映。本文采用最近八年的沪深股票交易数据。对CAPM在我国股市的适用性进行检验，检验结果是β仍然不能涵盖所有无法分散的风险。     

Discounting Mean Reverting Cash Flows with the Capital Asset Pricing Model

Discounting cash flows requires an equilibrium model to determine the cost of capital. The CAPM of Sharpe and the intertemporal asset pricing model of Merton (1973) offer a theoretical justification for discounting at a constant risk adjusted rate. Two problems arise with this application. First, for mean reverting cash flows the risk adjustment is unknown, and second, if the present value is compounded forward then the distribution of future wealth is likely right skewed. I develop equilibrium discount rates for cash flows whose level or growth rate is mean reverting. Serial correlation also largely eliminates the skewness problem.     

上海证券市场CAPM的实证检验

资本资产定价模型CAPM自诞生以来经历了无数次的检验,早期的实证检验多支持和肯定,后来更多的研究否定了它的有效性,认为β对股票没有解释能力。本分四个时间段对上海证券市场CAPM有效性进行检验,否定了CAPM在前三个时间段的有效笥,不能拒绝其在第四时间段有效。随着时间的推移,非系统风险对股票收益的解释能力越来越弱。     

Currency risk premia and uncovered interest parity in the International CAPM

Zero-investment uncovered interest parity (UIP) portfolio positions provide perfect factor-mimicking portfolios for currency risk in the International CAPM context. Their returns are the currency risk premia. Since the UIP positions on average provide low returns, the currency risk premia must be low so that currency risk appears not to be priced in an unconditional model. However, previous research has shown that UIP returns are predictable and may be quite substantial conditionally. We use this observation to generate a specific conditional version of the International CAPM. A GMM approach shows that the conditional model performs well, while the unconditional International CAPM is (marginally) rejected. The paper thus argues that previous rejections of the International CAPM stem from the fact that currency risk premia are by nature low over extended periods of time and do not provide evidence against the International CAPM.     

以MM理论与CAPM模型结合为基础的项目评估研究

当企业进行一个新行业项目投资时,项目的风险有可能高于企业现有的平均风险水平,因此采用什么样的贴现率对新项目进行评估,是企业是否进行该项目投资的一个主要判断。目前对MM理论与CAPM理论的结合研究大都以资本成本公式比较为基础,得到负债经营与未负债经营企业之间风险系数的等式。当我们把企业本身视为资产组合时,企业资产的风险系数应该是权益资本和债务资本风险系数的加权平均,结合MM理论中对负债的风险定义也可以得到该等式。同时,如何把计算出的＂未负债系数＂应用到企业投资评估中有现实意义。     

金融危机后上海证券市场的资本资产定价模型的实证研究

本文针对金融危机后上海证券市场的资本评估和定价有效性．运用计量方法进行资本资产定价模型的实证检验。所选取数据的实证结果表明CAPM在上海股票市场的应用有一定有效性．说明中国证券市场正在逐渐形成有效的风险收益权衡投资机制。     

Estimating the cost of equity for private firms using accounting fundamentals

Finance literature suggests the use of the Accounting Beta (BACC) as a proxy for the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) market beta to estimate the cost of equity capital when the stock price is not available. Previous researchers have aimed to achieve this objective by determining the correlation between accounting variables and the market beta. However, the magnitude of the resulting error in this correlation has remained unknown. The current study is an attempt to test the performance of the BACC as a proxy measure for the market risk and to examine the extent of the statistical error in the correlation between these two measures. Our findings indicate that BACC overestimates the market beta by between 20% and 50%. Applying some corrective measures, such as operational earnings scaled by equity, may lessen this difference to a range of 22%–25%; however, it does not eliminate the error. Our output also suggests that the BACC might be biased when used to assess the risk of small firms.