Auditor health and audit outcomes before COVID-19

This study examines whether influenza-like illnesses (ILIs), a potential threat to the conduct of public company audits, are associated with audit outcomes. Because the peak months of flu season overlap with audit busy season, audit offices most at risk of ILIs may be adversely affected. The demanding nature of audit busy season and the culture of audit firms may compel employees to go to work sick, a phenomenon known as presenteeism. When auditors go to work with flu-like symptoms, cognitive functioning is impaired, resulting in brain fog. This impairment may influence auditors’ ability to exercise judgment and professional skepticism, leading to adverse outcomes. Using data collected from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) we find that the filing of audit reports is delayed and audit quality suffers in audit offices most at risk of influenza-like-illnesses. The observed effects of health impairments on company outputs have broad implications for both the audit profession and workplaces as a whole.     

Have cryptocurrencies become an inflation hedge after the reopening of the U.S. economy?

In this paper, we study how the comovement between cryptocurrencies and the U.S. inflation expectation rates has changed during the post-reopening of the U.S. economy after the Covid-19 crisis. To do so, we develop a new concept of “exceedance co-kurtosis” which allows us to quantify asymmetry in strong comovement between each cryptocurrency and the inflation expectation rate. The key findings are as follows. First, we show the change in the co-kurtosis asymmetry for major cryptocurrencies: the downside co-kurtosis was higher than the upside co-kurtosis but it decreased after the reopening of the economy. Although the unconditional correlations between cryptocurrencies and the inflation expectation rates remain very low, our results indicate that the major cryptocurrencies become a slightly better inflation hedge after the reopening. Second and more interestingly, the results do not depend on whether a cryptocurrency has a cap on maximum supply or not. Therefore, treating the major cryptocurrencies as digital commodities could be misleading from the viewpoint of portfolio optimization.     

Forecasting for regulatory credit loss derived from the COVID-19 pandemic: A machine learning approach

The economic onslaught of the COVID-19 pandemic has compromised the risk management of financial institutions. The consequences related to such an unprecedented situation are difficult to foresee with certainty using traditional methods. The regulatory credit loss attached to defaulted mortgages, so-called expected loss best estimate (ELBE), is forecasted using a machine learning technique. The projection of two ELBEs for 2022 and their comparison are presented. One accounts for the outbreak's impact, and the other presumes the nonexistence of the pandemic. Then, it is concluded that the referred crisis surely adversely affects said high-risk portfolios. The proposed method has excellent performance and may serve to estimate future expected and unexpected losses amidst any event of extraordinary magnitude.     

Disentangling the impact of economic and health crises on financial markets

This paper explores the impact of different crises on the informational efficiency of financial assets. The study covers stock markets indices (ASX200, DAX30, EuroStoxx50, S&P500 and Nikkei), commodities (gold and oil) and volatility (VIX). The study analyzes, using a rolling window method, the long memory profile and the multifractality of the time series by means of the DFA and generalized Hurst exponents. This dynamic analysis is important as it uncovers the time-varying behavior of returns characteristics, affecting the investment decisions and trading strategies at different moments of time. The paper extends the current literature on informational efficiency, providing evidence of the distinct impact on the long memory and on the multifractality of the time series, depending on the nature of the crisis and the market. The results could be of interest for investors as well as for academics, regarding the hedging limits of the models during calm or turbulent times.     

Does corporate social responsibility protect shareholder value from the shock of COVID-19? Evidence from China

Our study examines whether and how increased engagement in social responsibility activities by a firm affects movements in its stock prices during the COVID-19 public health crisis, which is regarded as an exogenous shock to economic ties between focal firms and their customers, employees, and suppliers. We find that corporate social responsibility has an inverted U-shaped relationship with shareholder value. The nonlinear relationship is more dominant at firms with higher cash-flow constraints and weaker cost-adjustment capabilities. Our research also generates meaningful implications for business practices.     

How do firms learn? Evidence from corporate cash holdings during the COVID-19 pandemic

We examine the impact of COVID-19 on US corporate cash holdings. Our findings suggest that greater pandemic exposure is associated with higher corporate cash holdings and that firms learn from prior experiences as they manage their cash policies. More specifically, the level of cash holdings in firms that experienced severe financial constraints during the 2008 credit crisis and firms with prior severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and H1N1 exposure is significantly lower than that of firms with no prior epidemic or financial constraints experience. Overall, our findings support the learning behaviour of cash and contribute to corporate cash holdings literature by providing insights on the extent to which firms learn from prior experiences to manage their liquidity.     

Does real flexibility help firms navigate the COVID-19 pandemic?

Building on the investment-based asset pricing framework, we show that firms' ability to timely scale down their operations reduces the sensitivity of their equity value to large adverse productivity shocks. Using U.S. data in the times of the COVID-19 pandemic, we provide empirical evidence consistent with our model's predictions. Real flexibility curbs losses in firm value and reduces return volatility, especially for firms with high book-to-market or high COVID-19 exposure, consistent with the idea that the benefits of real flexibility are associated primarily with contraction options during the COVID-19 crisis. Our analysis shows that real flexibility provides incremental and complementary protection beyond financial flexibility. Besides its impact on stock prices, real flexibility also helps firms sustain earnings during 2020, compared with 2019 when the pandemic had not struck. Our work demonstrates that real flexibility is an important tool for corporate managers in navigating episodes of disasters.     

Crowding in the time of COVID: Effects on rapport and shopping satisfaction

Decades of research in marketing has established that crowding (human and spatial) in retail contexts significantly affects shopping satisfaction. Prompted by the profound changes in retail supply and demand due to the Covid-19 pandemic, this study expands knowledge in two ways: uncovering new relationships and replicating some of the critical findings previously demonstrated in the pre-pandemic context. Two studies (Study 1 scenario and Study 2 actual shopping trip) show that higher levels of human crowding results in lower levels of shopping satisfaction, and this effect is mediated by a new construct introduced into the crowding literature, namely, customer rapport with employees, emerging as a significant factor in the pandemic era. Importantly, the results show that these relationships differ according to customers’: a) perceptions about the appropriateness of retailer precautions, b) beliefs about the severity of threat that the pandemic presents, and c) perceived vulnerability to Covid-19, all of them new to crowding dynamics during the time of Covid. Finally, with Study 2, we replicate and extend selected findings from prior research on crowding. Overall, the results expand our understanding of crowding effects and provide novel insights in the “new normal” retail context.     

Ad creativity in a negative context: How a thanking message frame enhances purchase intention in times of crisis

Traditionally, advertising relies on creativity to increase its effectiveness. However, little is known about the use of creativity in negatively-valenced situations. For instance, in times of crisis such as the COVID-19 pandemic, how should retailers engage in advertising? Should they strive to deliver creative advertising, or not? We investigate the role of ad creativity during times of crisis, based on 43,459 consumer responses to 49 retail and service brand ads. To do so, we investigate the separate effects of the two dimensions of ad creativity: originality and appropriateness. Results indicate that creativity works differently in a crisis context, with originality and appropriateness having different effects on consumers. Further, we find that originality and appropriateness trigger emotions in opposite ways. However, ads that engage thanking - be it of employees, customers, or frontline emergency workers - strengthen these effects.     

Changes in consumption patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic: Analyzing the revenge spending motivations of different emotional groups

People tend to alleviate their negative emotions by shopping. Considering the change of shopping behavior during COVID-19 outbreak, negative emotions are the key contributors to this change. In this light, this study aims to investigate how negative emotions caused by COVID-19 affect shopping behaviors. This study classified consumer groups based on their perceived negative emotions (i.e., anxiety, fear, depression, anger, and boredom). By clustering analysis, four groups (i.e., group of anxiety, depression, anger, and indifference) were derived. Then, this study examined how each of the emotional groups differently affect the shopping-related motivations (i.e., mood alleviation, shopping enjoyment, socialization seeking, and self-control seeking) and shopping behaviors (i.e., shopping for high-priced goods and buying of bulk goods). Results revealed all emotional groups affect socialization seeking and influence high-priced shopping intentions. However, depression and indifference are positively associated with socialization seeking and influence bulk shopping intentions. In addition, other emotions except for anxiety affect mood alleviation and influence high-priced shopping intentions. Finally, anger is associated with self-control seeking and affects bulk shopping intentions. This study enables practitioners and researchers to better understand how people control negative emotions by shopping in pandemic situations such as the current COVID-19 crisis.