基于银行流动性管理视角的宏观审慎与货币政策协调研究

本文从商业银行流动性管理视角出发,探究银行微观主体行为如何影响宏观审慎与货币政策的协调。我们借鉴净稳定资金比例的设计理念,将商业银行的流动性管理行为纳入传统理论模型,刻画出两种流动性管理行为对货币政策信贷传导渠道效率的潜在影响及传导路径。在此基础上,采用我国50家商业银行2012年第1季度—2018年第2季度面板数据进行实证检验。我们发现,银行为提升长期流动性水平而进行的优化信贷资产结构的行为,能够显著提高货币政策传导效率。但是,部分净稳定资金比例较低的股份制银行和城市商业银行调整非信贷资产结构的行为则有可能降低货币政策传导效率。因此,在执行既有流动性监管措施的同时,关注与引导银行资产结构调整方式,对增强宏观审慎与货币政策的协调大有裨益。     

Financing investment in East Asia: Regional or global savings?

This paper investigates the extent to which domestic investment in East Asian countries is financed by domestic, (East Asian) regional and global savings in order to infer the relative importance of regional vs. global capital markets in East Asia. Panel regression results show that regional saving in East Asia plays a much more important role than global saving in financing investment in the region. The results suggest that global capital flows, despite its huge volume in East Asia, does not contribute to proper investment financing. The results also show that Japanese saving has significant effects on regional investment but Chinese saving does not.     

The role of inventories and capacity utilization as shock absorbers

We examine the role of inventories and capacity utilization (of both capital and labor) for the propagation of business cycle fluctuations. We document a new set of facts regarding the U.S. cyclical regularities of inventories and capacity utilization. First, we find that capital utilization and the flows of services from both capital and labor are procyclical, and comove with the holdings of inventories. Second, we find that labor utilization is procyclical as well, but is weakly negatively correlated with inventories. We build a model that accounts for these facts, and also accounts for the stylized inventory facts, i.e., inventory holdings are procyclical, while the inventory-to-sales ratio is countercyclical. The analysis is centered on the effects of two possible shocks: preference (demand) shocks and technology shocks. Our model shows that inventories and the rate of capital utilization are mostly complements, while inventories and the rate of labor utilization are mostly substitutes. It further shows that temporary demand shocks emphasize the role of inventories as being a “shock absorber,” whereas high-persistence demand shocks, as well as technology shocks of any persistence, emphasize the role of inventories as being a complement to consumption.     

The economic consequences of the TARP: The effectiveness of bank recapitalization policies in the U.S.

This study empirically analyzes the impact of the United States’ bank recapitalization program, the centerpiece of the United States’ $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), on bank portfolios. Through superior empirical analysis and correct model specification, our findings overturn much of the existing literature on the effectiveness of capital injections into the banking sector in Japan and the United States. We show that the TARP program did not achieve the stated policy objective of stimulating bank lending. On the contrary, we find evidence that recipient banks grew assets significantly slower, particularly heavily risk-weighted assets such as loans. These findings are robust to various empirical specifications, including two-stage least squares estimation using instrumental variables, difference-in-difference techniques and generalized method of moments. These techniques control for pre-existing trends in loan growth while addressing potential endogeneity bias.     

Regulation and taxation: A complementarity

I show how quantity regulation can lower elasticities and thereby increase optimal tax rates. Such regulation imposes regulatory incentives for particular choice quantities. Their strength varies between zero (laissez faire) and infinite (command economy). In the latter case, regulation effectively eliminates any intensive behavioral responses to taxes; a previously distortionary tax becomes a lump sum. For intermediate regulation (where some deviation is feasible), intensive behavioral responses are still weaker than under zero regulation, and so quantity regulation reduces elasticities, thereby facilitating subsequent taxation. I apply this mechanism to labor supply and present correlational evidence for this complementarity: hours worked in high-regulation countries are compressed, and these countries tax labor at higher rates.     

Balance of payments accounting and exchange rate dynamics

The balance of payments is an accounting identity. Many wonder how the current and capital accounts, which add up to zero, can influence exchange rates. This paper shows how payment flows arising from balance of payments imbalances affect the demands for different currencies in the foreign exchange market over time. Based on a dynamical system approach, the paper demonstrates how international payments evolve depending on the joint dynamic behaviour of different balance of payments components. It finds that international payments and exchange rates interact in fundamentally different ways depending on whether a country restricts its capital inflows and outflows, whether capital flows are accommodating or autonomous and whether the exchange rate is fixed, flexible or, say, governed by a crawling peg. Empirical evidence from major industrial countries as well as from countries hit by currency crises support the paper's theoretical predictions.     

Capital taxation, long-run growth, and bequests

It has been shown that higher capital taxes can have a growth-enhancing effect when combined with a revenue-compensating cut in wage taxes or with an expansion in productivity-increasing public services. The present paper demonstrates that these results critically hinge on the existence of a bequest motive. It is shown that a wage-tax cut is no longer growth-enhancing when bequests are operative. By way of contrast, increasing productive public services may well boost growth. The theoretical findings are illustrated by numerical simulations based on US data.     

资本市场的实验经济学方法论研究

随着金融市场理论研究和实践检验的不断发展，资本市场的许多基础理论受到了极大的挑战，与现有理论相悖的异象不断涌现。新近兴起的实验经济学为人们研究资本市场提供了一条更为有效的途径。本文分析了实验方法在资本市场研究中的利与弊，介绍了部分资本市场实验的设计过程，并应用该方法分析了风险与收益、资本市场的效率、市场泡沫的产生和破灭、CAPM理论，以及交易制度等。文章指出，在资本市场中运用实验方法进行研究，具有可控性、可比性以及可重复性等优点，为我们对于资本市场诸多理论进行检验提供了可能。在资本市场实验的设计中，我们不但需要考虑实验的各种交易制度，还需要考虑到被试人员的选择、交易资产的确定以及市场信息的设计等很多问题，只有对这些问题进行全面地考虑，才能保证实验结果的可信度，进而为我们对于各种金融理论的检验提供可能。     

后金融危机时代金融消费者保护的若干问题——以美国2010年的新法案为视角

本文以2010年7月美国《多德—弗兰克华尔街改革与消费者保护法》为探索视角,简要回顾了美国金融消费者保护的历史和教训,指出消费者保护的思想不仅应该明确体现在金融监管目标中,还需设置达至目标的适当监管机构,同时提出金融消费者保护的立法力度与金融创新速度相匹配的问题。就中国学界对新法案高涨的借鉴热情,文章认为:国外先进立法经验的本土植入需考量现实条件,我国目前亟须完成的工作是提升金融消费者概念的认同程度并设置适宜的金融消费者保护性机构。     

Valuation and classification of company issued cash and share-puts

This paper examines whether investors’ valuations of cash and share-put warrants are influenced by their potential differential effect on firm solvency. It is motivated by the enactment of SFAS 150, which requires that all contingent put warrant obligations be classified as balance sheet liabilities regardless of put type. Consistent with the critics of SFAS150, we show that market participants differentially value cash and share-puts based on their solvency characteristics beyond the firm’s recorded assets and liabilities. Our results add to existing capital structure literature by suggesting that complex financial instruments (such as cash and share-puts) be reported separately from each other on a firm’s balance sheet.