Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future

A variety of methods and ideas have been tried for electricity price forecasting (EPF) over the last 15 years, with varying degrees of success. This review article aims to explain the complexity of available solutions, their strengths and weaknesses, and the opportunities and threats that the forecasting tools offer or that may be encountered. The paper also looks ahead and speculates on the directions EPF will or should take in the next decade or so. In particular, it postulates the need for objective comparative EPF studies involving (i) the same datasets, (ii) the same robust error evaluation procedures, and (iii) statistical testing of the significance of one model’s outperformance of another.     

Insurance Considering a New Stochastic Model for the Discount Factor

In many empirical situations (e.g.: Libor), the rate of interest will remain fixed at a certain level (random instantaneous rate i i ) for a random period of time ( t i ) until a new random rate should be considered, i i + 1 , that will remain for t i + 1 , waiting time until the next change in the rate of interest. Three models were developed using the approach cited above for random rate of interest and random waiting times between changes in the rate of interest. Using easy integral transforms (Laplace & Fourier) we will be able to calculate the moments of the probability function of the discount factor, V ( t ), and even its c.d.f. The approach will also be extended to the calculation of the expected value (net premium) and variance of a term insurance and we will get its c.d.f., something not very common in actuarial literature due to its complexity, but very useful when the law of large numbers cannot be applied and consequently use normal approximations.     

转型期我国市场化进程的多视角分析

本文从四个方面对转型期我国市场化进程进行了分析,一是产品市场与要素市场,二是下层市场组织与上层市场组织,三是正式经济与非正式经济,四是经济运行中的总量交易与每笔交易费用,并且对每个层次我国市场化进程发展中的问题及根源进行了制度经济学的剖析,从而为我国社会主义市场经济体制的完善提供有价值的参考.     

我国外汇储备货币组合的实证分析

截至2006年2月我国外汇储备达8536亿美元,超过日本成为世界外汇储备持有量第一大国,其后我国外汇储备也呈不断增长的态势,到2007年3月已达12020.31亿美元.外汇储备的持续增加意味着面临的风险也在持续增加.因此,如何确定合理的外汇储备币种组合成为目前需要迫切研究的课题.本文根据国内外已有研究确定了外汇储备货币结构的影响因素,结合因子分析法,得出了我国外汇储备币种组合的新选择,提出了我国外汇储备货币组合的对策建议.     

地方公共服务、要素流动与要素空间配置——基于本地交易成本的均衡分析

通过"两区域、两要素与两部门"模型研究发现,即使存在区域内与区域间两类交易成本,增加公共服务仍有利于吸引要素流入,并产生要素空间聚集效应;增加公共支出以改善区内贸易条件对要素流动及其空间分布具有不同的影响;我国地方公共支出规模与全要素生产率之间存在明显的长期因果关系.     

中国居民消费价格指数预测

2012年下半年,中国居民消费价格指数将保持在2%左右,不会发生大的通货膨胀和通货紧缩。为避免价格大起大落,实现经济可持续发展,要坦然面对居民消费价格指数的低位运行,积极扩大消费需求;通过立法和政策引导,鼓励企业诚信经营,生产出消费者需要且信赖的产品;大力淘汰落后产能,促进行业结构调整优化和整体竞争力的提升。     

长三角地区居民消费结构及水平的统计分析

应用因子分析和聚类分析的方法，对2006年长三角16座城市居民的消费结构、消费水平进行分析和比较。结果表明，长三角16城市在居民可持续消费能力上存在差距，在居民消费结构和消费水平上可分为五类，其中上海、杭州的消费水平最高。文章还对如何提高居民消费水平，促进经济协调发展提出了对策。     

Dynamic Factor Demands and Technology Measurement under Arbitrary Expectations

We present a dynamic model of factor demands based on expected discounted costs minimization. While making only very mild assumptions on expectations and technology, we are able to establish a duality relationship between contemporary factor demands and the technology, and we provide formula for easily recovering marginal products, returns to scale, and technological change from estimated factor demands. Parametrization and implementation are illustrated in a detailed example.     

外贸结构的非均衡机理探索

经济结构呈现非均衡的常态特征。在市场不完全、信息不充分、外生条件不统一等因素的制约下,一国外贸结构形成的资源配置效率通常低于均衡世界里的帕累托最优效率,是一种“次优”均衡;这种非均衡模式可能在受到外在冲击时或通过内生演进的方式发生改变,并通过进出口商品结构、贸易方式结构等表现出来。外贸结构非均衡的核心特征是进出口商品的要素密集度高低,并与比较优势和后发优势联系在一起,成为外贸结构非均衡演进规律的主要内容。     

雷达发射信道中的噪声

本文介绍了经常被人们忽视的，有关发射信道中的噪声问题，提出了降低噪声的方法以及在处理信道噪声时应注意的几个方面。