Changes in Global Trade Patterns and Women's Employment in Manufacturing, 1995–2011

This study investigates the feminization and defeminization trends in manufacturing employment in thirty countries from 1995 to 2011. Utilizing two separate methods, structural decomposition analysis (SDA) and factor content analysis (FCA), the study identifies the major industries and trade partners behind the structural shifts in trade that have induced changes in employment and thus in the rates of women’s employment. The findings highlight that, as a general trend, defeminization in manufacturing has persisted in the Global North, led by a negative trade impact in low-technology industries. In the Global South, feminization and defeminization trends are not as straightforward. Despite positive changes in women’s share of employment in medium-high- and high-technology industries, negative gender bias effects of trade changes are found particularly in high-technology industries, where occupations are notably gendered.     

基于社会网络分析的高校科技成果转化团队知识网络研究——以南昌大学江风益团队为例

以南昌大学江风益团队为例,采用社会网络分析方法对高校科技成果转化团队的知识网络进行建模和分析。通过节点中心性测度和凝聚子群分析,研究了江风益高校科技成果转化团队知识网络的节点重要性和派系结构。结论如下:该团队的核心成员在团队知识网络中起着主导知识协作关系和引导知识协作行为的关键作用;该团队的知识网络中存在7个派系,其中绝大多数派系由核心成员主导,这反映出该团队具有高度凝聚性。最后,从发展关键节点、连接孤立节点和促进知识团体三个方面提出了进一步优化团队知识网络的建议。     

When do sell-side analysts switch industries they follow?

Between 1984 and 2014 over 3400 sell-side analysts changed the primary industry they followed. This article documents that analysts are more likely to change their industries when their absolute and relative forecasting accuracy in that industry is low and when the accuracy in the new industry is high. Analysts are more likely to switch industries at the beginning of their careers, after a recent change of an employing brokerage house, and if they have a history of switching industries before. Analysts are less likely to make a switch when their forecasting activity in the industry is high, when the industry is followed by many analysts and when they are employed by a top brokerage house.     

河南省粮食应急供应链响应能力的理论分析

粮食应急供应链的主要功能是为应对自然灾害和突发事件提供有力的粮食物资保证。河南省是中国重要的粮食主产区之一,在保障国家安全方面具有不可替代的特殊地位,这必然要建立、健全粮食应急供应链。研究粮食应急供应链体系的建设问题,对于提高政府危机管理的水平,增强应对自然灾害和突发事件的能力,具有重要而深远的意义。     

Growth and Nongrowth Capital Investments and Future Performance*

Most studies on the impact of capital expenditure on future performance use the aggregate capital expenditure disclosed in the cash flow statement. In this study, however, we distinguish between growth capital investments (that increase production capacity) from nongrowth capital investments (that only maintain or reduce current capacity). For growth capital investments, we document a negative association with year-ahead performance, which becomes positive in the subsequent year. For nongrowth capital investments, we observe a non-negative association with year-ahead performance. For nongrowth capital investments, we document a positive association, suggesting that the divestment is beneficial. That is, firms are likely disposing of nonproductive assets. Our results suggest that disclosing the nature of capital investments is important to better assess the future impact of a firm's investment decisions.     

Probability theory in fuzzy sample spaces

This paper tries to develop a neat and comprehensive probability theory for sample spaces where the events are fuzzy subsets of The investigations are focussed on the discussion how to equip those sample spaces with suitable -algebras and metrics. In the end we can point out a unified concept of random elements in the sample spaces under consideration which is linked with compatible metrics to express random errors. The result is supported by presenting a strong law of large numbers, a central limit theorem and a Glivenko-Cantelli theorem for these kinds of random elements, formulated simultaneously w.r.t. the selected metrics. As a by-product the line of reasoning, which is followed within the paper, enables us to generalize as well as to bring together already known results and concepts from literature.Acknowledgement. The author would like to thank the participants of the 23rd Linz Seminar on Fuzzy Set Theory for the intensive discussion of the paper. Especially he is indebted to Professors Diamond and Höhle whose remarks have helped to get deeper insights into the subject. Additionally, the author is grateful to one anonymous referee for careful reading and valuable proposals which have led to an improvement of the first draft.This paper was presented at the 23rd Linz Seminar on Fuzzy Set Theory, Linz, Austria, February 5–9, 2002.     

克拉申理论对民办院校大学英语教学模式的启示

本文分析了目前民办本科大学英语教学模式现状,指出其存在的问题,结合克拉申二语习得理论,提出了民办本科院校大学英语教学模式设置应该注意的几个方面:实事求是,结合实际,根据学校定位以及学生培养目标实施有效的教学模式;开拓创新,充分发挥学分学绩制的优势,改革课程设置,突出通识教育;构建和优化课堂课外英语学习环境,提高输入的数量和改善输入质量;教学内容的生活化、专业化,学习过程的小组家庭合作化有助于提高输入的有效吸收以及输出的高效性。     

Nearly exact sample size calculation for powerful non‐randomized tests for differences between binomial proportions

In the case of two independent samples, it turns out that among the procedures taken in consideration, BOSCHLOO'S technique of raising the nominal level in the standard conditional test as far as admissible performs best in terms of power against almost all alternatives. The computational burden entailed in exact sample size calculation is comparatively modest for both the uniformly most powerful unbiased randomized and the conservative non‐randomized version of the exact Fisher‐type test. Computing these values yields a pair of bounds enclosing the exact sample size required for the Boschloo test, and it seems reasonable to replace the exact value with the middle of the corresponding interval. Comparisons between these mid‐N estimates and the fully exact sample sizes lead to the conclusion that the extra computational effort required for obtaining the latter is mostly dispensable. This holds also true in the case of paired binary data (McNemar setting). In the latter, the level‐corrected score test turns out to be almost as powerful as the randomized uniformly most powerful unbiased test and should be preferred to the McNemar–Boschloo test. The mid‐N rule provides a fairly tight upper bound to the exact sample size for the score test for paired proportions.     

前瞻性货币政策的微观传导机制有效吗*——来自中国上市企业资产负债表的证据

本文根据新古典资本需求理论和实际余额效应理论建立了一个包含投资需求和投资效率的前瞻性泰勒规则模型,并构造了一个反映企业投融资需求状况的企业综合状况指数,将其引入扩展的前瞻性泰勒规则模型,然后从宏观和行业两个层面对加入企业综合状况指数的前瞻性泰勒规则进行了检验和比较。研究发现：（1）前瞻性利率传导的企业资产负债表渠道基本有效,短期名义利率对于超过80%行业的企业综合状况指数缺口的反应系数显著,但对不同行业的反应差异较大;（2）短期利率对企业综合状况的反应系数较小,而对通胀缺口和产出缺口的反应系数相对较高,显示货币当局调整利率可能更多的是针对通胀缺口和产出缺口反应;（3）货币政策对资产价格“反应不足”,其对股价的反应系数非常小,对房价的反应系数不显著。     

农村居民点土地整理的效益评价方法探讨

对农村居民点土地整理效益评价研究能够为土地整理工作科学、合理地实施提供理论支持,农村居民点土地整理效益评价必须能够全方位涵盖其综合效益的内涵,全面计算影响农村居民点土地整理效益的所有土地、自然、社会、经济因素。该文以奈门沁村为例,运用定性、定量、动态及实证研究方法,确定所研究区域内农村居民点土地整理效益大小。