协调博弈均衡随机稳定性的研究现状与展望

协调博弈均衡选择不仅依赖于博弈支付，更重要的是依赖于参与人之间复杂的行为预期过程，它是继囚徒困境博弈模型之后又一被广泛研究的博弈类型，本文基于随机稳定性思想，结合已有的研究文献，基于实验经济学的研究结果阐述了除博弈支付之外还有许多其他影响均衡稳定性的因素，在此基础上，进一步论述了相关理论模型的研究结论及其存在的缺陷，因此，要更现实地研究协调博弈均衡的稳定性，就需要加入除博弈支付之外的其他因素，最后，文章结合实验研究及理论模型提出了协调博弈均衡稳定性研究的思路与方向，为学者们进一步研究提供了新的视角。     

Tradeoffs Among Social,Resource, and Management Attributes of the Denali Wilderness Experience: A Contextual Approach to Normative Research

Wilderness experiences are thought to be comprised of three primary dimensions, including social, resource, and management conditions. Decisions about how to manage wilderness recreation in Denali National Park and Preserve involve potential tradeoffs among these conditions. This study extends the normative approach to wilderness research by developing and applying a decision-making model that considers social, resource, and managerial attributes of the wilderness experience within a more holistic context. Specifically, stated choice analysis is used to evaluate the choices overnight wilderness visitors make when faced with hypothetical tradeoffs among the conditions of social, resource, and management attributes of the Denali wilderness. Study findings offer normative, but contextually informed empirical guidance in formulating indicators and standards of quality for the wilderness experience.     

A good way to boost sales? Effects of the proportion of sold-out options on purchase behavior

The present research explores how the proportion of sold-out options in the choice set affects consumer purchase choices. Across five experiments, we find an inverted U-shaped relationship between the proportion of sold-out options in a choice set and consumer purchase choices. Fueling this effect are two competing processes: presence of sold-out options signals the overall quality of products in the choice set, which prompts consumers to purchase available options; while it also evokes psychological reactance, which impedes purchases. The quality signaling effect features a concave shape, whereas the psychological reactance force takes on a convex shape, so in combination, these two forces form an inverted U-shaped relationship. In addition, two boundary conditions were identified: (1) this effect is obtained only when psychological reactance is not induced by other situational factors; and (2) this effect disappears when consumers make purchases for others, not when they make purchases for themselves.     

Estimation and validation of hybrid choice models to identify the role of perception in the choice to cycle

Cycling is one of the most sustainable and ecofriendly modes of travel and a good form of exercise. Many government and public health authorities recommend cycling to stay fit as well as to reduce air and noise pollution, CO₂ emissions, traffic congestion, and other negative consequences of car use. In light of these benefits, a major challenge for researchers today is how to promote cycling. However, in countries where cycling is not common, apart from the need for proper cycling facilities, one major issue concerns people’s perception of cycling for sport or recreational activities rather than as a mode of transport. The aim of this paper is to explore the role of perception in the likelihood of the bike being used for utilitarian purposes. We focus on the perception of: the bicycle as a means of transport; bikeability (in terms of usefulness and safety) and of bike infrastructure. Hybrid Choice Models (HCMs) have been used to estimate the effect of people’s perception on the propensity to bike. The HCM also accounts for the serial correlation between error terms in the discrete and latent perceptions, to allow for agent-common unknown factors. Furthermore, we also validate the model results using a hold-out sample and discuss some policy measures aimed at changing travel behavior. The results suggest that, besides individual characteristics, latent aspects related to the perception of the context and of the bicycle as a means of transport strongly affect the propensity to cycle.     

DO WATER-RICH REGIONS HAVE A COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE IN FOOD PRODUCTION? IMPROVING THE REPRESENTATION OF WATER FOR AGRICULTURE IN ECONOMIC MODELS

With growing demand for fresh water and uncertain supplies, there is an increasing concern about future water scarcity. Since most freshwater withdrawals are for agriculture, reliance on water embodied in imported food (trade in ‘virtual water’) is a possible strategy to provide food to water-stressed regions while conserving their scarce supply for other purposes. To evaluate this proposition, we extend a model of interregional trade by (1) defining endowments of water that cannot be exceeded, (2) allowing simultaneous operation of rainfed and irrigated agriculture, and (3) distinguishing sub-regional endowments within a larger economic region. An application to the Mexican economy compares region-specific water abundance with economic comparative advantage under alternative scenarios. We conclude that the water-rich regions of Mexico are relatively high-cost producers of food and that they do not pick up the slack even when the lowest-cost Mexican regions are constrained by binding water constraints.     

贵州对外区域合作的战略选择

通过对川渝黔粤四省市三次产业构成、工业内部结构、工业企业科技水平、第三产业内部结构等方面对进行比较,可以看出川渝和贵州的产业结构相近,经济增长方式相似,在此基础上提出了贵州开展对外区域合作的建议对策。     

The landscape of olive groves as a driver of the rural economy

This study evaluates how landscape changes made in order to improve the visual quality of olive groves may trigger first and second-order effects (FOEs and SOEs) on the rural economy. The choice experiment method is combined with the probability of visiting to estimate the marginal increase in recreational demand derived from the combination of three landscape elements: green cover, stone walls and woodland islets. The results suggest that the improvement of the aesthetic value of landscape (mainly through green covers and stone walls) creates a real, positive asset (due to its FOEs and SOEs) for the local economies in rural areas. The promotion of the recreational value of these areas to attract more visitors and so bring in more income could be a profitable policy, which could be implemented by hybridizing the current Agri-environmental scheme with a Payment for Ecosystem Services approach.     

Valuing financial,health, and environmental benefits of Bt cotton in Pakistan

Data from a farm survey and choice experiment are used to value the benefits of Bt cotton in Pakistan. Unlike previous research on the economic impacts of Bt, which mostly concentrated on financial benefits in terms of gross margins, we also quantify and monetize health and environmental benefits associated with technology adoption. Due to lower chemical pesticide use on Bt cotton plots, there are significant health advantages in terms of fewer incidents of acute pesticide poisoning, and environmental advantages in terms of higher farmland biodiversity and lower soil and groundwater contamination. Farmers themselves value these positive effects at US$ 79 per acre, of which half is attributable to health and the other half to environmental improvements. Adding average gross margin gains of US$ 204 results in aggregate benefits of US$ 283 per acre, or US$ 1.8 billion for the total Bt cotton area in Pakistan.     

哈耶克对凯恩斯有关通货膨胀理论的批判及其启示

在全球应对金融海啸初见成效之时,国内外无论政府还是学界都对通货膨胀存在一定预期。本文通过对哈耶克有关文献的梳理,站在哈耶克立场上着重对凯恩斯通货膨胀的性质、形式及后果进行了批判。剖析了人为的、只重视结果的凯恩斯通货膨胀理论在经济和政治层面可能造成的后果,并运用哈耶克理论为中国预防通货膨胀从心理、政治和现实三个方面提供了思想资源。     

A demonstration of anomalies in evaluations of bundling

The paper investigates the premise that bundling prompts consumers to purchase more than they ordinarily would. Two theoretical justifications for increased purchasing with bundling are reviewed, and an experiment regarding consumer evaluation of bundling is reported. Anomalies in the experimental results demonstrate that bundles appear to create contexts that influence evaluation and choice, and some support for increased purchasing was found. Further research is needed to understand more fully the bundle context, the effects created and the process evoked.I thank Robert J. Dolan and Peter H. Farquhar for their many contributions. I also thank Billur Dowse and Mark Indelicado for their helpful research assistance.