A latent class approach to investigating demand for genetically modified banana in Uganda

This study explores consumer acceptance and valuation of a genetically modified (GM) staple food crop in a developing country prior to its commercialization. We focus on the hypothetical introduction of a disease‐resistant GM banana variety in Uganda, where bananas are among the most important staple crops. A choice experiment is used to investigate consumer preferences for various attributes related to the banana (such as bunch size, technology, producer benefit, and price) and examine their opinions on GM foodstuff. Choice data come from 421 banana‐consuming households randomly selected from three regions of Uganda. A latent class model is used to investigate the heterogeneity in consumers’ preferences for selected attributes related to the banana and to profile consumers who are more or less likely to accept GM bananas. Our results reveal that there is significant heterogeneity in consumer preferences across our sample. GM bananas are valued the most by poorer households located in the rural areas of the Eastern region. These food‐insecure households would experience the highest benefits (i.e., welfare gains) from the commercial release of GM bananas. In contrast, urban consumers are less accepting of GM bananas, and they would experience significant welfare losses if GM banana is released. According to our welfare estimates, both the total welfare benefits acquired by the gainers and the total welfare losses borne by the losers of this technology are significant and large. These results suggest the need for further investigation of the overall welfare effects of the introduction of GM bananas on the Ugandan society as a whole.     

我国房地产调控政策目标的选择与平衡

高烧不退的房地产市场已经成为我国经济社会健康发展的重负。尽管中央政府针对高房价展开了暴风骤雨般的密集调控,然而房地产调控政策的整体效果并不理想,社会上甚至形成了一种越调越涨的心理预期。房地产调控之所以陷入越调越涨的怪圈中,行政体制不合理是其外部制约因素,而房地产调控政策目标选择和调控方式不当则是政策本身的缺陷。鉴于此,厘清房地产调控政策的基本目标及内涵,根据调控政策环境的变化,科学、灵活地对政策目标进行选择与平衡,是保证房地产政策调控有效性的首要环节和先决条件。     

Dissertation abstract: The effect of involvement, time, and vividness on consumers’ value judgments: A test of prospect theory

The literature in psychology and behavioral economics offers abundant instances of anomalies to the rational choice paradigm. One of the most prominent works attempting to reconcile these is Kahneman and Tversky’s Prospect Theory. Its well-known S-shaped value function accounts for some of the anomalies such as reference dependence, loss aversion, and diminishing sensitivity. Although Prospect Theory describes the manner in which individuals are loss averse, it does not explain why people show loss aversion. This dissertation investigates the factors that affect the cognitive processes behind loss aversion. We find an anomaly in the S-shaped value function. Specifically, the studies demonstrate that the degree of involvement affects the slope of the value curve both for atemporal and intertemporal choices. In addition, we also test the relationship between loss aversion and involvement with varying vividness of outcomes (i.e., when outcomes are related to more versus less vivid stimuli). Testing the vividness effects further extends and confirms our proposed relationship between involvement and loss aversion. The data from several experiments show that there is a difference in the slopes of the value function for low and high involvement decisions. For low involvement conditions, the value curve has roughly the same steepness for losses as for gains close to the neutral reference point (i.e., contrary to the diminishing sensitivity characteristic). By contrast, in the high involvement conditions this is not the case: there is a distinct difference in the slopes of the loss and gain curves. This leads us to propose that different value functions exist for people in the low and high involvement conditions. This important finding suggests that in cases where people are not highly involved with a product, they display significantly less loss aversion than predicted by Prospect Theory. Three experiments investigate the relationship of loss aversion to subjects’ level of involvement in atemporal choice, intertemporal choice, and differential vividness of stimuli situations, respectively. The first study uses a 2 (involvement: low and high) by 2 (outcome: gain and loss) between subjects design. The results show that loss aversion significantly attenuates in the low involvement condition for atemporal choice. Study two replicates the results of study one in the context of intertemporal choice, where timing of outcomes (now versus three months) is introduced as another factor. Finally, the third study manipulates the vividness of outcomes and finds an interaction effect of vividness and involvement on loss aversion. Dissertation Committee: Norman Frohlich (Co- Chair), I.H. Asper School of Business, University of Manitoba Edward Bruning (Co- Chair), I.H. Asper School of Business, University of Manitoba Namita Bhatnagar, I.H. Asper School of Business, University of Manitoba Wayne Simpson, Department of Economics, University of Manitoba Michael Hu, Department of Marketing, Kent State University     

Modeling college major choices using elicited measures of expectations and counterfactuals

The choice of a college major plays a critical role in determining the future earnings of college graduates. Students make their college major decisions in part due to the future earnings streams associated with the different majors. We survey students about what their expected earnings would be both in the major they have chosen and in counterfactual majors. We also elicit students’ subjective assessments of their abilities in chosen and counterfactual majors. We estimate a model of college major choice that incorporates these subjective expectations and assessments. We show that both expected earnings and students’ abilities in the different majors are important determinants of a student’s choice of a college major. We also consider how differences in students’ forecasts about what the average Duke student would earn in different majors versus what they expect they would earn both influence one’s choice of a college major. In particular, our estimates suggest that 7.8% of students would switch majors if they had the same expectations about the average returns to different majors and differed only in their perceived comparative advantages across these majors.     

Supply chain differentiation,contract agriculture,and farmers’ marketing preferences: The case of sweet pepper in Thailand

There is an emerging body of literature analyzing how smallholder farmers in developing countries can be linked to modern supply chains. However, most of the available studies concentrate on farm and farmer characteristics, failing to capture details of institutional arrangements between farmers and traders. Moreover, farmers’ preferences have rarely been considered. Here, we address these gaps by analyzing different market channels for sweet pepper in Thailand. Using data from a survey and choice experiment with farmers, we find that there is a general preference for marketing options that do not involve a contract. Additional provision of inputs and credit can increase the attractiveness of contracts. Yet, the most important factor for farmers is to personally know the buyer they deal with, which may be related to issues of trust. Some policy implications are discussed.     

Small forest landowner preferences for working forest conservation contract attributes: A case of Washington State,USA

In Washington State, small forest landowners (SFLO) play an important role in maintaining forest cover on the landscape as well as associated ecosystem services. This paper examines landowner preferences for the attributes of working forest conservation contracts (WFCC) using a choice experiment. The attributes examined are contract duration (from 10 years to perpetuity), forest management requirements, and the extent of forestland covered under the contract. We find that contract attributes are valued very differently depending on landowner objectives and harvesting behavior. Landowner characteristics and forestland spatial characteristics including distances to development and large public forestlands were found to significantly influence the likelihood of contract acceptance. While a significant portion of preference heterogeneity remains unobserved, we identify several key sources of landowner preference heterogeneity which allows for a better understanding of which landowners are likely to enroll in voluntary forest conservation contracts and may have implications for improved targeting of contracts.     

游说竞争、信息披露与公共政策的走向

公共政策是调节各方面利益关系的产物,有组织的利益集团可以通过游说来影响公共政策,在政策制定过程中他们通过与某些决策的相关信息部门形成某种利益纽带。利益集团在相互竞争中形成某种制约性的力量,公共决策机制的设计就要充分利用利益集团之间的相互制衡,以达到公共权力分散和牵制的效果。