Hurdle and Latent Class Approaches to Serial Non-Participation in Choice Models

In repeated choice modelling studies, it is often the case that individuals always select the status quo option. Although this pattern may reflect considered choices, they may also be the result of alternative decisions about whether to participate in the choice process at all. Alternative methods of dealing with this behaviour, each with associated implications for estimates of economic values, are presented. In particular we consider the alternative strategies of excluding such individuals from the data, using hurdle models to explicitly model this group, and propose the use of latent class models to endogenously allow for different preference structures. An advantage of the latent class approach is that the form of the non-participation need not be defined in advance. These approaches are considered using UK choice experiment data on food choices where the attributes include genetic modification of food. The latent class approach reveals the presence of two forms of non-participation in the data. This paper draws work commissioned by UK Department of Environment Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA). The views presented in this paper are those of the authors alone and should not be regarded as those of DEFRA or of individuals within DEFRA.     

国际贸易合同适用国际贸易惯例的实证分析

国际私法领域的国际贸易惯例与国际公法领域的国际惯例有着明显的区别。它与国际贸易合同的关系十分密切,无论惯例的适用、修改抑或排除都离不开合同的规定。最新国际贸易惯例有发展当事人意思自治原则的新趋向,允许甚至明确赋予合同当事人有选择、修改或排除适用惯例的权利。本文在探讨国际贸易惯例定义及其与合同关系的基础上,着重论证国际贸易惯例在合同中的实际适用及适用时应当注意的若干问题。     

Buchanan’s constitutional political economy: exchange vs. choice in economics and in politics

This article discusses the methodological foundations of Buchanan’s constitutional political economy. We argue that Buchanan is a constitutional economist because he is an economist or a political economist. In other words, Buchanan is a constitutional economist—he insists on the necessity of focusing on constitutions and to analyze the “rules of the social game”—because he defines economics as a science of exchange. Buchanan’s definition of economics is not only specific, it is also opposed to the definition of economics that other economists retain and, above all, opposed to the definition of economics that many public choice theorists use. The latter have, in effect, adopted the Robbins 1932 definition of economics as a science of choice that Buchanan criticizes and rejects. Buchanan’s constitutional economics can be a branch of public choice only under certain conditions.

产业关联效应对纺织业外资区位选择影响的实证研究

本文通过投入产出表计算出纺织业的上下游关联最密切的行业,利用广义矩估计对2001～2009年中国省际纺织业面板数据的实证研究表明:纺织业下游的服装业通过产业支持效应促进了纺织业不同来源地外资的流入;上游的化学纤维制造业对纺织业不同来源地外资的流入影响不稳健;第三产业主要通过产业替代效应限制了港澳台投资的流入,而对其他来源地外资没有影响。     

财务重述与上市公司外部审计选择研究——来自中国A股市场的经验数据

本文以2001年至2009年的A股上市公司为样本,从市场角度研究财务重述与市场选择的关系。研究表明,业绩优秀的上市公司变更事务所和注册会计师会显著降低财务重述的概率,但业绩差的上市公司变更事务所和注册会计师会显著增加财务重述的概率;选择＂四大＂能显著降低财务重述的概率;但支付高的审计费用对财务重述的概率有显著影响,如果选择的＂非四大＂可以降低重述的概率,如果购买的是＂四大＂反会增加重述的概率。     

我国证券投资基金总体绩效的实证分析——基于总业绩评价理论

本文基于2007—2010年间数据,对我国开放式证券投资基金中的股票型基金、混合型基金和债券型基金的总体绩效进行了比较实证分析。研究发现:各股票基金的业绩表现极不均衡,基金经理的选股能力参差不齐,但选股能力或者择时能力有了明显的提高;各混合型基金的绩效分布都较为接近正态分布;我国债券型基金的业绩表现基本稳定,并没有随着股票市场的大起大落而表现出明显的好与差,其风险收益均大于与市场同风险的投资组合的风险收益,但是这种优势并不太明显。     

Consumer valuation of health attributes for soy-based food: A choice modeling approach

Given that soy foods possess health-promoting attributes that offer the promise of reducing heart-related chronic diseases, this article employs choice experiments to estimate marginal willingness to pay (WTP) for soy attributes including taste, contents of soy protein, and health claim. Random parameter logit (RPL) models were estimated in consideration of potential heterogeneity across individuals in their preferences for soy food. Standard deviation parameters in the RPL models are highly significant, indicating that individuals have widely varying preferences for soy-based food products. Results suggest that, while taste is the dominating attribute that drives consumers’ WTP for soy food products, consumers do respond to the information provided in the health claim. Yet, consumers do not seem to be recognizing soy protein as the link to health benefits of soy foods.     

Health information and diet choices: Results from a cheese experiment

This study reports results from a choice experiment on semi-hard cheese from Norway. About half of the 408 participants were exposed to diet-related health information before performing either a choice or a ranking task, while a control group did not receive such information. The effects of health information on marginal willingness to pay for low-saturated-fat, low-fat and organic cheese are analyzed using rank-ordered mixed logit models. Cheese preferences are clearly affected by exposure to health information. On average, the health information group is willing to pay a price premium of 27.2% (NOK 24.5 per kg) for low-saturated-fat cheese and 14.4% (NOK 13.0 per kg) for low-fat cheese. This is respectively 1.73 and 2.89 times more than corresponding price premiums in the control group. Non-college, medium–high income, age 50–70 and female participants are more clearly affected by health information than college, low income, age 30–49 and male participants. Subjective statements on diet-health knowledge and awareness are used to discuss these findings. Our results suggest that provision of health information is likely to reduce educational differences in diet-health knowledge and thus dietary behavior. Low income participants seem to be constrained by high food prices, but not by lack of knowledge or awareness. Finally, due to lack of diet-health awareness, reaching out to young people and particularly males through health information policies seems difficult.     

流动性供给、最后贷款人与金融系统稳定:一个次优选择

中央银行维护金融稳定的能力建立在其能够为市场提供流动性这一特有能力的基础之上。事实上,金融危机期间,各国央行一方面通过调整自身的资产负债表而创造流动性以支持金融系统正常运转;一方面动用最后贷款人职能对个别机构进行救助。需要注意的是,大规模流动性供给和救助行为并非是"最优"的选择,其对经济金融失衡的影响、对公平效率的损害,以及由此带来的通胀压力和政策外溢效应不容忽视。     

Pesticides,Preference Heterogeneity and Environmental Taxes

In this paper we present results from two choice experiments (CE), designed to take account of the different negative externalities associated with pesticide use in agricultural production. For cereal production, the most probable impact of pesticide use is a reduction in environmental quality. For fruit and vegetable production, the negative externality is on consumer health. Using latent class models we find evidence of the presence of preference heterogeneity in addition to reasonably high willingness to pay (WTP) estimates for a reduction in the use of pesticides for both environmental quality and consumer health. To place our WTP estimates in a policy context we convert them into an equivalent pesticide tax by type of externality. Our tax estimates suggest that pesticide taxes based on the primary externality resulting from a particular mode of agricultural production are a credible policy option that warrants further consideration.