The challenges of pre-launch forecasting of adoption time series for new durable products

The successful introduction of new durable products plays an important part in helping companies to stay ahead of their competitors. Decisions relating to these products can be improved by the availability of reliable pre-launch forecasts of their adoption time series. However, producing such forecasts is a difficult, complex and challenging task, mainly because of the non-availability of past time series data relating to the product, and the multiple factors that can affect adoptions, such as customer heterogeneity, macroeconomic conditions following the product launch, and technological developments which may lead to the product’s premature obsolescence. This paper provides a critical review of the literature to examine what it can tell us about the relative effectiveness of three fundamental approaches to filling the data void : (i) management judgment, (ii) the analysis of judgments by potential customers, and (iii) formal models of the diffusion process. It then shows that the task of producing pre-launch time series forecasts of adoption levels involves a set of sub-tasks, which all involve either quantitative estimation or choice, and argues that the different natures of these tasks mean that the forecasts are unlikely to be accurate if a single method is employed. Nevertheless, formal models should be at the core of the forecasting process, rather than unstructured judgment. Gaps in the literature are identified, and the paper concludes by suggesting a research agenda so as to indicate where future research efforts might be employed most profitably.     

The moderating role of context in the effects of choice attributes on hotel choice: A discrete choice experiment

This study used discrete choice modeling to identify the moderating role of context in the effects of cognitive, affective, and sensory attributes on hotel choice. To evaluate a hotel consumer's choice for attributes in a different choice context (leisure vs. business), a stated preference experiment based on D-optimal design was conducted using both a multinomial logit (MNL) model and a random parameter logit (RPL) model. The results show that while leisure travelers' choices for family vacation trips were more influenced by price and overall atmosphere than were business travelers', business travelers put an emphasis on room quality and comfort when on a business trip alone. The study demonstrates the trade-offs made by leisure and business travelers when choosing a hotel through discrete choice modeling. The findings provide hotel managers with important insights and implications in terms of target segmentation, product development, and marketing communication strategy.     

Do Animals Use Heuristics?

Much research has demonstrated ways that humans use heuristics when solving complex problems. Similar claims have occasionally been made for non-human subjects, although the topic remains largely undeveloped. This paper explores ways that non-human subjects might use simple rules to solve complex ecological problems. It is suggested that a focus on the use of heuristics in non-human subjects can enrich choice models in behavioral ecology, while at the same time informing existing models in psychology and economics more generally.     

有效承接发达地区产业转移的金融政策选择——以广西为例

生产要素流动是区际产业转移的推动器,而此其中资金的流动和投资又是实现产业转移目标和提升产业转移绩效的关键。国内外的成功经验也表明,金融产业转移既是产业转移的重要领域,而且往往又是其中的先行领域,因此现阶段在承接区际产业转移的过程中,大力发展金融产业、积极构建有效的地方系统性的金融政策体系以及制定和实施有效的金融倾斜政策,无疑具有重要的现实意义。     

Willingness to accept compensation for the environmental risks of oil transport on the Amazon: A choice modeling experiment

This paper looks at the question of whether subsistence level/indigenous people place a value on the preservation of ecosystems independent of direct impacts of environmental change, such as impacts on their production activities. The economics literature generally suggests that non-use values don't exist among the poor and in the informal sector of the economy. We examine this issue through a choice modeling experiment. A survey was conducted of rainforest communities who live on the banks of the Amazon River (Rio Solimões), in the vicinity of proposed oil and gas pipelines. The data were analyzed in the choice modeling framework, revealing relatively high amounts of compensation that were necessary in order to accept the potential ecosystem damages associated with oil transport, even if the people were completely compensated for direct damages such as loss of access to productive resources. These results suggest that environmental quality is important for its own sake, a result that is very different from the implicit assumption among many economists.     

新时期中国就业政策选择

中国是一个快速工业化的发展中大国,其丰富的人力资源是一个巨大的相对优势,但同时也是国家发展的一个沉重压力。中国目前的发展已经进入了一个新阶段,需要结合劳动生产率的提高,通过扩大就业规模来建立和谐社会,促进经济增长,通过经济增长方式的调整来实现以就业增长促进经济增长。     

Bayesian Hypothesis Testing: a Reference Approach

For any probability model M={p(x|θ, ω), θεΘ, ωεΩ} assumed to describe the probabilistic behaviour of data xεX, it is argued that testing whether or not the available data are compatible with the hypothesis H₀={θ=θ₀} is best considered as a formal decision problem on whether to use (a₀), or not to use (a₀), the simpler probability model (or null model) M₀={p(x|θ₀, ω), ωεΩ}, where the loss difference L(a₀, θ, ω) –L(a₀, θ, ω) is proportional to the amount of information δ(θ₀, ω), which would be lost if the simplified model M₀ were used as a proxy for the assumed model M. For any prior distribution π(θ, ω), the appropriate normative solution is obtained by rejecting the null model M₀ whenever the corresponding posterior expectation ∫∫δ(θ₀, θ, ω)π(θ, ω|x)dθdω is sufficiently large. Specification of a subjective prior is always difficult, and often polemical, in scientific communication. Information theory may be used to specify a prior, the reference prior, which only depends on the assumed model M, and mathematically describes a situation where no prior information is available about the quantity of interest. The reference posterior expectation, d(θ₀, x) =∫δπ(δ|x)dδ, of the amount of information δ(θ₀, θ, ω) which could be lost if the null model were used, provides an attractive nonnegative test function, the intrinsic statistic, which is invariant under reparametrization. The intrinsic statistic d(θ₀, x) is measured in units of information, and it is easily calibrated (for any sample size and any dimensionality) in terms of some average log‐likelihood ratios. The corresponding Bayes decision rule, the Bayesian reference criterion (BRC), indicates that the null model M₀ should only be rejected if the posterior expected loss of information from using the simplified model M₀ is too large or, equivalently, if the associated expected average log‐likelihood ratio is large enough. The BRC criterion provides a general reference Bayesian solution to hypothesis testing which does not assume a probability mass concentrated on M₀ and, hence, it is immune to Lindley's paradox. The theory is illustrated within the context of multivariate normal data, where it is shown to avoid Rao's paradox on the inconsistency between univariate and multivariate frequentist hypothesis testing.     

Using choice question formats to determine compensable values: The case of a landfill-siting process

Siting noxious facilities, such as community landfills, is a challenging problem for local planners who recognize the importance of economic efficiency and equity, political acceptance, and meeting federal regulatory standards. Meeting these criteria requires technical and socio-economic analyses in conjunction with public input. Planners may also recognize that political acceptance requires compensation for the host community, either in the form of monetary or in-kind transfers. Following Breffle and Rowe [Breffle, W.S., Rowe. R.D., 2002. Comparing choice question formats for evaluating natural resource tradeoffs. Land Econ. 78 (2), 298–314], we use a “resource-to-resource” paired-comparison survey method to estimate compensatory values associated with an in-county landfill for both the host and non-host communities. Our results indicate that while a host-community household's minimum willingness to accept payment for hosting a landfill may exceed a non-host-community household's maximum willingness to pay, a large difference in population sizes between the two communities enables the landfill to pass a Kaldor potential compensation test.     

Maximal elements of non-binary choice functions on compact sets

We give sufficient conditions for the existence of maximal elements on compact sets for ‘contraction consistent’ (but possibly non-binary) choice functions. Our result generalizes the Bergstrom-Walker theorem on the existence of maximal elements with acyclic preference relations.     

时间约束与休闲消费

本文构建了一个引入“时间约束”的休闲消费模型，并基于时间密集型休闲品和物品密集型休闲品的休闲消费二分法，探讨了消费者最优休闲消费选择的条件，分析了工资率、非工资收入、工作时间变化对休闲消费选择的影响。