Forecast combinations under structural break uncertainty

This paper proposes two new weighting schemes that average forecasts based on different estimation windows in order to account for possible structural change. The first scheme weights the forecasts according to the values of reversed ordered CUSUM (ROC) test statistics, while the second weighting method simply assigns heavier weights to forecasts that use more recent information. Simulation results show that, when structural breaks are present, forecasts based on the first weighting scheme outperform those based on a procedure that simply uses ROC tests to choose and forecast from a single post-break estimation window. Combination forecasts based on our second weighting scheme outperform equally weighted combination forecasts. An empirical application based on a NAIRU Phillips curve model for the G7 countries illustrates these findings, and also shows that combination forecasts can outperform the random walk forecasting model.     

我国房地产调控政策目标的选择与平衡

“高烧不退”的房地产市场已经成为我国经济社会健康发展的“重负”。尽管中央政府针对高房价展开了“暴风骤雨”般的密集调控,然而房地产调控政策的整体效果并不理想,社会上甚至形成了一种“越调越涨”的心理预期。房地产调控之所以陷入“越调越涨”的怪圈中,行政体制不合理是其外部制约因素,而房地产调控政策目标选择和调控方式不当则是政策本身的缺陷。鉴于此,厘清房地产调控政策的基本目标及内涵,根据调控政策环境的变化,科学、灵活地对政策目标进行选择与平衡,是保证房地产政策调控有效性的首要环节和先决条件。     

DETERMINANTS OF PUBLIC PENSION PLAN INVESTMENT RETURN. The role of fund value maximization and public choice theory

Public pension plans are a major type of institutional owner during the new era of investor capitalism, yet little is known about them. Based upon fund value maximization (FVM) and public choice theory (PCT), we develop hypotheses on the determinants of plan performance as measured by plan annual investment return. FVM espouses that the plan's fund or investment portfolio will be invested to maximize return for a given level of risk, while PCT holds that agency costs are significant in the public sector, and will have a negative effect on plan return. Using biennial pension plan data for 1992–96 for several hundred plans, we found that fund value maximization has a much greater influence on plan performance, but that plan performance is also subject to agency costs associated with public choice theory.     

两类区域产业转移发生机制的路径选择研究

产业转移在推动地区经济发展,缩小区域经济发展差距等方面具有显著作用。在产业转移路径方面,现有研究主要关注两区域之间的产业转移发生行为。将现有两区域产业转移发生机制拓展到两类区域的产业转移,并运用产业转移势差模型,基于经济、产业、成本、交易成本和技术5个方面势差,建立产业转移评价指标体系,对两类区域产业之间的转移路径进行探讨。得出研究结论：①基于势差理论的两类区域产业转移发生机制是对两区域产业转移发生机制的扩展,将产业转移的“一对一”模式扩展至“一对多”模式,能更好地解释区域间产业转移发生路径;②以广东（发达类型区）对江西、湖南和安徽（欠发达类型区）三地的产业转移为例,广东至湖南的转移势差最小,相对于江西和安徽更不具有转移优势,通过对各子指标的调控,可以改变其转移势差,以达到改变其转移路径选择的结果。最后,基于研究结论,提出了推动我国两类区域产业转移的政策建议。     

时间、收入与消费选择--兼论假日经济效应

本文首先给出了一个时间和收入双重约束下的消费者最优选择理论,分析了收入充裕而时间稀缺条件下的消费者行为,认为价格的变动将不会影响最优的消费组合,同时认为,通过增加闲暇将促进消费的增长;最后运用季度数据进行了计量检验,检验的结果证实了上述结论。     

煤矿开拓方案选择的层次灰关联决策

本文从井巷工程、工业场地、场外公路、主要设备、开拓方式、井筒水文地质、到火车的距离等七个方面建立了煤矿开拓方案评价的指标体系,并利用层次分析法与灰关联决策相结合的方式进行煤矿开拓方案的选择,进而给出煤矿开拓方案选择层次灰关联决策的具体步骤,最后进行实例应用。     

Influence of Soldout Products on Consumer Choice

Consumers often face situations in which information about soldout products is still present in the decision context. This paper demonstrates that the presence of soldout products in the decision environment can prompt consumers to purchase available options and decrease choice deferral. This effect can be explained by two underlying decision processes. First, soldout products may create a sense of urgency for consumers to expedite their purchases, which the authors call an immediacy effect. Second, soldout products may enhance the perceived attractiveness of products similar to the soldout products, which the authors refer to as an informational cascades effect.     

Which accessible travel products are people with disabilities willing to pay more? A choice experiment

Despite the rapidly increasing number of tourists with disabilities, which is known to have a strong nexus with senior travel market, tourism industry has paid little attention to the distinctive preferences of these tourists for accessible travel products. Using a sample of Koreans with mobility disabilities, this study aims to better understand how they make decisions to choose optimal accessible travel products. The results of the choice experiment indicate that respondents place the heaviest weight on the accessibility of accommodation facilities for their maximization of travel satisfaction. The results also suggest that tourists with disabilities show higher willingness-to-pay values on particular tour buses equipped with more accessibility devices. Based on study findings, this study provides several management implications that help tourism professionals develop appropriate accessible travel products for their clientele with disabilities.     

If you,tourist, behave irrationally,I’ll find you!

When departures from rational behavior can potentially be expected, modeling should allow for their identification and their quantification. In this regard, prices in tourism might have effects that may not be as apparent as economic theory predicts. This article incorporates the sticker shock formulation into the mixed logit model without imposing consistency with consumer theory to accommodate any possible positive or negative price effects. By allowing the parameters of “price” and “sticker shock term” to take any value – negative or positive – we detect abnormal behaviors in the tourist demand: not only is the negative relationship between price and demand inverted for some people but also some tourists might be willing to accept higher-than-expected prices. The “non-well-behaved” groups' shares are estimated.