Endogenous retailer preferences in intermediate good markets

We model strategic interaction in a differentiated input market as a game among two suppliers and n retailers. Each one of the upstream firms chooses the specification of the input which it will offer.Then, retailers choose their type from a continuum of possibilities. The decisions made in these two first stages affect the degree of compatibility between each retailer's ideal input specification and that of the inputs offered by the two upstream firms. In a third stage, upstream firms compete setting input prices. Equilibrium may be of the two-vendor policy or of the technological monopoly type.     

收入和流动性风险约束下家庭金融资产选择的实证研究

本文采用SCF数据,运用TOBIT模型从实证的角度研究收入风险和流动性约束对投资者资产选择的影响。研究结果表明：控制其他变量的影响之后，收入风险的增加会使得投资者降低对风险资产的需求．预期未来流动性的约束也减少投资者的风险资产投资比例。接着本文采用分类回归及将风险资产投资比例概念由狭义转变为广义，得到的结论都和前面的研究一致。最后．本文采用迭代LAD回归技术所得到的结果也证明了本模型的结论具有稳健性。     

公共选择理论对当代中国政府管理借鉴分析

尽管公共选择理论受到学术界的某些非议,但在20世纪80年代后期其理论和方法得到了广泛的应用和认可;在中国同样需要公共选择,尤其是地方政府在区域经济发展中发挥作用过程中特别要注重对公共选择理论的应用与发展。公共选择理论不可能解决所有问题,却对中国地方政府管理创新有着明显借鉴意义。     

旧城区复兴与银发革命和养老产业的选择

新旧城区分野发展是我国各地城市化进程中在城市结构形态上的通常表现。旧城区与新城区的发展差距日益拉大。旧城区乃至旧城的更新成为一个引起广泛关注的理论与实践问题。其实,旧城区之为旧,根源在于内部的产业不再具有竞争力,城区缺乏活力,在社会文化上则呈现为资源流失、人口老化等症状。鉴于我国已经进入老龄社会的现实,并参酌旧城区的城市基础以及社会生态,确定在旧城区大力发展养老产业,以此作为旧城区的战略定位,或许是旧城区寻求全面突破的一种根本方法。为此,需要对旧城区进行适当的物理和社会空间重整,并提供相应的政策扶持。     

农户分层信贷渠道选择行为及其影响因素分析——基于农村二元金融结构的实证研究

本文基于来自中国12省市的农户家庭信贷的微观数据,运用Probit模型实证分析了在正规金融渠道与非正规金融渠道相互独立和相互影响下,高收入与低收入农户信贷渠道选择行为的影响因素,解析中国农村二元金融结构特征下的农户分层信贷渠道选择行为。本文研究发现,家庭特征、经济特征以及金融生态环境对高收入与低收入农户信贷渠道的选择行为有着不同的影响。基于经验研究的基础上,提出中国二元金融结构特征下的深化农村金融改革的政策建议。     

Efficient choice set designs for estimating availability cross-effects models

Batsell and Polking proposed a discrete choice model which incorporates the availability (presence or absence) of competing brands into the utility of each brand under study. The information on relative impacts of adding or deleting brands is of strategic interest, and models that do not incorporate such effects may be misleading. The designs suggested by Batsell and Polking have 2^m–m–1 choice sets. Even with as few as 10=m brands, this requires over 1000 choice sets. In this paper we provide a catalog of designs for estimating cross effects models in as few as 2m–1 choice sets. This will make cross effects modelling practical in a wide range of academic and commercial settings.     

中国非农自雇活动的转换进入分析

本文利用中国健康与营养调查的微观面板数据,分析了我国非农自雇活动转换进入的决定因素。本文把初始状态区分为工资雇佣和失业,最终状态则划分为无雇工自雇和有雇工自雇,另外,对无雇工自雇转入有雇工自雇也进行了剖析。结果显示:不管初始状态如何,代际人力资本传递在自雇进入中发挥了重要作用;年龄和性别变量只对失业转入自雇有影响;由失业转入自雇的概率比由工资雇佣转入自雇的概率高;工资雇佣转入有雇工自雇的概率与失业转入有雇工自雇的概率相差不大,但工资雇佣转入无雇工自雇的概率与失业转入无雇工自雇的概率之间存在巨大差异;高等教育在无雇工自雇转入有雇工自雇的工作岗位创造过程中起到了显著的推动作用。     

The Path to Enhance Quality of Suspicious Transaction Reports for Anti-Money Laundering

反洗钱制度安排的一项核心内容是金融机构向反洗钱情报部门提交可疑交易报告。目前,金融机构可疑交易报告数量庞大而情报价值较低,已成为制约反洗钱工作开展的主要障碍。本文在分析可疑交易报告质量影响因素的基础上,给出了提升其质量的系统管理路径,包括完善报告制度、优化报告流程、实施风险管理、创新技术手段、拓展审计职能等。     

The Current Status, Advantages and Disadvantages, Path and Strategy Choice of RMB Internationalization

本文首先诠释了货币国际化的含义、衡量标准及决定因素;其次分析了人民币国际化的现状、进程及利弊;最后,根据当前的国际政治、经济、文化格局及货币国际化模式选择,认为人民币国际化将是一个漫长的过程,我国应采取渐进式的人民币国际化路径,在地域扩张、货币职能、演进历程上分别采取＂三步走＂的发展战略。     

Network effects and preference heterogeneity in the case of mobile telecommunications markets

This paper demonstrates how revealed- and stated-preference analyses can be used for modeling network effects in the field of mobile telecommunications. The aim of this study was to verify if network effects may still play a role in the Polish mobile telecommunications market, measure their strength, identify their sources and variability across consumers by accounting for consumers' observable and unobservable preference heterogeneity, evaluate their monetary value to consumers, and finally, to verify if the marginal utility associated with network effects is constant. The analysis of consumers' revealed choices (currently used mobile telephone operator) allowed the identification of major differences between customer bases of incumbent and new entrant operators, and insight into the business strategies adopted in the presence of asymmetric regulation of mobile termination rates. The second part of the study—the analysis of the consumers' stated choices (made in carefully prepared and designed hypothetical choice situations, known as the choice experiments) made it possible to directly model consumers' utility functions and, in this way, investigate the nature of network effects in mobile telecommunications markets. From the results, the presence of strong network effects, which are related to the ratio of consumers' social network group using the same operator, and to the magnitude of on-net price discounts, is confirmed. These network effects can be disaggregated to pecuniary and non-pecuniary effects. Through the utilization of the random parameters multinomial logit model, consumers' observable and unobservable preference heterogeneity can be accounted for, which proved a scientifically revealing and potentially policy-relevant approach. The results might be of a particular interest to other researchers aiming at modeling consumers' preferences as well as to mobile telephone operators and regulatory authorities—it is shown that capacity for vigorous price competition between mobile operators is limited by non-price factors, which affect subscriber's choices, especially in the presence of asymmetric mobile termination rates.