Composition, Securement, and Concede-and-divide

Concede-and-divide is a widely accepted procedure to solve the problem of adjudicating two conflicting claims. In this paper we show that this procedure can be characterized by combining three standard properties in the literature: self-duality, lower securement, and restricted composition up. We also show that self-duality can be replaced by the dual properties of lower securement and restricted composition up and that both characterization results are tight.     

Fraud Allegations and Government Contracting

This paper examines whether fraud allegations affect firms’ contracting with the government. Using a data set of whistleblower allegations brought under the False Claims Act against firms accused of defrauding the government, we find that federal agencies do not reduce the total dollar volume of contracts with accused firms; however, they substitute approximately 14% of the harder‐to‐monitor cost‐plus contracts for fixed‐price contracts. This effect is concentrated in the procurement of services and explained by contract and service substitution. Finally, we find that after the conclusion of the investigation, the government reduces the contract dollar volume by approximately 15% for cases that resulted in a settlement. Our findings indicate that contract‐design changes are used to mitigate uncertainty in suppliers’ reputation.     

基于机器学习算法的个体索赔准备金评估模型

非寿险赔款准备金对保险公司的风险管理和财务决策具有重要影响。传统的准备金评估方法通常基于汇总的流量三角形数据进行建模,没有充分利用个体索赔案件的信息,且存在参数过度化、难以处理大额赔款和负增量赔款等问题。本文基于每份保单的个体索赔信息,使用随机森林和XGBoost等机器学习算法对案件的赔付状态、赔付金额分别建立了预测模型,改进了传统准备金评估模型的预测效果。实证研究结果表明,影响赔付状态的因素主要是结案状态、报案延迟等跟案件相关的信息,而影响赔付金额的因素则主要是历史赔付金额等反映出险事故严重程度的信息。本文最后还给出了RBNS准备金的预测分布,其结果更加接近准备金的真实值且方差更小,表明在非寿险RBNS准备金评估中,基于机器学习算法的个体索赔准备金评估模型优于传统的准备金评估模型。     

Asymmetric parametric division rules

We describe and characterize the family of asymmetric parametric division rules for the adjudication of conflicting claims on a divisible homogeneous good. As part of the characterization, we present two novel axioms which restrict how a division rule indirectly allocates between different versions of the same claimant. We also show that such division rules can alternately be represented as the maximization of an additively separable social welfare function.     

Another pragmatic loss reserving method or Bornhuetter-Ferguson revisited

Abstract

The efficiency of an approximate credibility method for predicting outstanding claims in reinsurance, is analysed. The advantage of the approximate method is, that it does not require exact knowledge of the model's second order moments.     

Respiratory-related medical expenditure and inpatient utilisation among COPD patients receiving long-acting bronchodilator therapy

Abstract

Objective:

To evaluate chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)-related expenditure and hospitalisation in COPD patients treated with tiotropium versus alternative long-acting bronchodilators (LABDs).

Methods:

Data were from the Thomson Reuters MarketScan Research Databases. COPD patients ≥35 years with at least one LABD claim between July 1, 2004 and June 30, 2006 were classified into five cohorts based on index LABD: monotherapy with tiotropium, salmeterol/fluticasone propionate, formoterol fumarate, or salmeterol or combination therapy. Demographic and clinical characteristics were evaluated for a 6-month pre-period and COPD-related utilisation and total costs were evaluated for a 12-month follow-up period. LABD relationship to COPD-related costs and hospitalisations were estimated by multivariate generalised linear modelling (GLM) and multivariate logistic regression, respectively.

Results:

Of 52,274 patients, 53% (n?=?27,457) were male, 71% (n?=?37,271) were ≥65?years, and three LABD cohorts accounted for over 90% of the sample [53% (n?=?27,654) salmeterol/fluticasone propionate, 23% (n?=?11,762) tiotropium, and 15% (n?=?7755) combination therapy]. Patients treated with salmeterol/fluticasone propionate (p?<?0.001), formoterol fumarate (p?=?0.032), salmeterol (p?=?0.004), or with combination therapy (p?<?0.001) had higher COPD-related costs and a greater risk of inpatient admission (p?<?0.01 for all) versus tiotropium.

Limitations:

These data are based on administrative claims and as such do not include clinical information or information on risk factors, like smoking status, that are relevant to this population.

Conclusions:

Patients treated with tiotropim had lower COPD-related expenditures and risk of hospitalisation than patients treated with other LABDs     

“Natural” and “Fresh”: An Analysis of Food Label Claims in Internationally Packaged Foods in Singapore

Food claims invite controversies on account of their potential to mislead consumers while at times masquerading as health information devices. In the United States, Europe, and Australia/New Zealand, scholars have extensively studied the prevalence of food claims, the regulatory repercussions, and effects of such claims on consumers’ food perceptions and dietary choices. Our study is an attempt to address a gap in related research focused on Asia by situating the inquiry in Singapore where consumers are exposed to a wide variety of such claims due to the universality of food imports. This study examines the state of food claims by the food product’s region of origin, and focus specifically on the use of terms “natural” and “fresh” on food labels. We present recommendations for food marketing policymakers and practitioners.     

Diagonal effects in claims reserving

In this paper we present two different approaches to how one can include diagonal effects in non-life claims reserving based on run-off triangles. Empirical analyses suggest that the approaches in Zehnwirth (2003) and Kuang et al. (2008a, 2008b) do not work well with low-dimensional run-off triangles because estimation uncertainty is too large. To overcome this problem we consider similar models with a smaller number of parameters. These are closely related to the framework considered in Verbeek (1972) and Taylor (1977, 2000); the separation method. We explain that these models can be interpreted as extensions of the multiplicative Poisson models introduced by Hachemeister & Stanard (1975) and Mack (1991).     

江苏中小板上市公司资本结构与公司治理研究

关于资本结构对公司治理绩效的影响所进行的一系列理论与实务研究,数量多、结论不一。通过梳理现有的研究成果,文章实证检验了江苏中小板上市公司资本结构的公司治理效应,在此基础上,就完善江苏中小板上市公司治理提出建议。