Forecasting residential burglary

Following the work of Dhiri et al. [Modelling and predicting property crime trends. Home Office Research Study 198 (1999). London: HMSO] at the Home Office predicting recorded burglary and theft for England and Wales to the year 2001, econometric and time series models were constructed for predicting recorded residential burglary to the same date. A comparison between the Home Office econometric predictions and the less alarming econometric predictions made in this paper identified the differences as stemming from the particular set of variables used in the models. However, the Home Office and one of our econometric models adopted an error correction form which appeared to be the main reason why these models predicted increases in burglary. To identify the role of error correction in these models, time series models were built for the purpose of comparison, all of which predicted substantially lower numbers of residential burglaries. The years 1998–2001 appeared to offer an opportunity to test the utility of error correction models in the analysis of criminal behaviour. Subsequent to the forecasting exercise carried out in 1999, recorded outcomes have materialised, which point to the superiority of time series models compared to error correction models for the short-run forecasting of property crime. This result calls into question the concept of a long-run equilibrium relationship for crime.     

The dynamics of moonlighting in Russia1

This paper uses the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS) to analyse the dynamics of moonlighting by the working‐age population. We find that moonlighting is transitory and that a desire to switch jobs expressed in the past is positively related to moonlighting in the present and to actual job changes in the future. We also find that workers who moonlighted as self‐employed in the past represent 26.5 percent of the new self‐employed. These results suggest that moonlighting in Russia can be seen as an effective incubator for setting up new self‐employed businesses, thereby providing long‐term benefits for the economy.     

An investigation of transformation-based prediction interval for the Weibull median life

Statistical inference based on the Weibull distribution, a distribution widely used in reliability and survival analysis, is usually difficult as it often involves numerical computation and approximation. However, this distribution can be transformed to near-normality by a simple power transformation. Based on this transformation, a prediction interval (PI) for its median can be easily constructed through an inverse transformation. The procedure for selecting the best power transformation through minimizing Kullback-Leibler information is described. The property of this transformation-based PI is investigated. Simple correction factors are also proposed. It is shown that the transformation-based PI with corrections performs well, irrespective of the sample size and parameter values. Simulation results show that the new PI generally outperforms the existing PI. Numerical examples are given for illustration.     

Optimality conditions¶and bubbles in sequential economies¶and bounded relative risk-aversion

We provide specific qualifications in order that Kuhn–Tucker type Euler equations and transversality conditions at infinity hold in stochastic equilibrium models with heterogeneous agents and where assets are traded in sequential markets. It is not assumed that uncertainty is modeled as an event-tree structure or that preferences are necessarily bounded. We also describe an important class of preferences based on bounded relative risk aversion which yields relevant simplifications. Our results are used to establish conditions that rule out asset pricing bubbles. Specific examples of economies with bubbles are also discussed. Received: 28 January 2002 / Accepted: 19 July 2002 We are grateful to the editor and an anonymous referee for their valuable comments. This research was partially supported by MURST (Italy), National Group on “Nonlinear Dynamics and Stochastic Models in Economics and Finance”.     

Endogenous Growth and Negative Externalities

Received March 5, 2001; revised version received August 5, 2002 Published online: April 30, 2003     

Theory and practice of value management and its innovation for natural resources from the perspective of sustainable development

The supreme obstacle for sustainable development of natural resources is the scarecity, bottleneck. So how to promote the sustainable utilizing and increase the using efficiency of natural resources is worth studying. This paper suggests that we should improve the model and means of evaluating method and value management based on th~ theory of natural resource compensation. This paper discusses the User Cost Method based on the microeeonomicaspect which can change the evaluating method for natural resources. From the perspective of value managemen model, we should use the User Cost Method to realize the linkage and integration of micro and macro eompensation for natural resources. Based on the evaluating and aecounting idea User Cost Method, this paper presents a theo. retical framework to harmonize and link micro and macro compensation for natural resources. At present, we should seek the new approach and method to manage natural resources, so can we realize the capitalization managemen focusing on the vahte management for natural resources.     

Are stationarity and cointegration restrictions really necessary for the intertemporal budget constraint?

Time series related to fiscal and external deficits are commonly subjected to stationarity and cointegration tests to assess if the deficits are sustainable. Such tests are incapable of rejecting sustainability. The intertemporal budget constraint proves to be satisfied if either the debt series or the revenue and with-interest spending series are integrated of arbitrarily high order, i.e., stationary after differencing arbitrarily often. Revenues and spending do not have to be cointegrated. Rejections of low-order difference-stationarity and of cointegration are thus consistent with the intertemporal budget constraint. Error-correction-type policy reaction functions are suggested as more promising for understanding deficit problems.     

FACTORS THAT AFFECT THE LONG‐TERM SURVIVAL OF MICRO,SMALL AND MEDIUM ENTERPRISES IN ETHIOPIA

There is an increasing recognition of the potential importance of micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) for employment, income and poverty reduction in Ethiopia. Although the MSME sector contributes significantly to the national economy, the high failure rate among well established small businesses and enterprises is a matter of major concern. A random sample of 500 small businesses and enterprises selected from five major cities in Ethiopia were followed up for 6 years in order to assess the impact of influential factors that affect the long‐term survival and viability of small enterprises. Hazard ratios estimated from the Cox Proportional Hazards Model were used to quantify the impact of key predictors of survival. Businesses that ceased operation were characterised by inadequate finance (61%), low level of education (55%), poor managerial skills (54%), shortage of technical skills (49%), and inability to convert part of their profit to investment (46%). The study shows that participation in social capital and networking (iqqub schemes) was critically helpful for long‐term survival. Businesses that did not participate in iqqub schemes regularly were found to be 3.25 times more likely to fail in comparison with businesses that did. Results of the study have implications that could be used for developing policy initiatives that are aimed at fostering long‐term growth in small businesses and enterprises.     

利用OLE技术实现Excel与dBase的通信

论述了一种基于OLE自动化技术、利用Excel的OLE对象实现Excel与dBase数据库之间进行通信的方法，并给出了在VB下实现该技术的主要代码。     

我国上市公司资本结构的评价模型

加入世贸组织 ,将对我国国有商业银行的银行业务、优质客户、人力资源和资产质量造成严重的冲击 ,为此 ,国有商业银行必须采取五个方面的对策 :增强银行实力、开展业务创新、提高服务质量、完善人力资源管理制度和加强资产质量管理。