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21.
This paper analyses stock market co-movements around recent crises and explores the international portfolio diversification benefits available for UK investors holding a portfolio in the BRICS and MIST emerging markets. The application of conventional and regime-switch cointegration techniques suggests an absence of diversification benefits. Further evidence from application of a multivariate time-varying asymmetric model (i.e. AG-DCC) suggests that conditional correlation among the stock markets exhibits higher dependency when it is driven by negative shocks to the market. The asymmetric causality test provides supporting evidence of the decoupling hypothesis. The results indicate that the Chinese stock market is the most attractive option for the UK investor. 相似文献
22.
The monthly data of China's log import from January 2000 to December 2013 are used to estimate the import demand elasticities, with the consideration of possible price endogeneity due to China's large share of the international log market, and structural break caused by global financial crisis in 2008. To address the possible structural break, cointegration tests allowing for a deterministic shift in the level of the variables are employed, and a two-stage estimation with top-down sequential elimination algorithm is performed on the restricted subset VECM. The results demonstrate that there exists a long-run cointegration relationship between China's log import and the explanatory variables. The import elasticities of macroeconomic development and import price are around 0.76 and −0.81, respectively. Other things being equal, the structural break would induce a 29.6% decline in China's log import. All the above parameters are significant at the 1% risk level. Furthermore, the contribution decomposition analysis suggests that China's macroeconomic development plays a dominant role in determining its log import, which implies that China's log import would not increase as quickly as before, given that its economy is shifting into the “New Normal State”. This conjecture is supported by our simulations, which indicate that, by 2020, the growth rate of China's log import will be lower than it has been in the past and the import volume would be approximately 1.1–1.6 times greater compared to imports in 2013. 相似文献
23.
In this study, we attempt to examine the possibility of emergence of significant fluctuations of the exchange rates in the
future for the candidate EMU countries. In doing so, we estimate the equilibrium rate of the nominal effective exchange rate
for Poland, Hungary, Slovak Republic and Malta through the BEER and PEER approaches. While the PEER-based estimation implies
a large misalignment rate for the Hungarian forint, the BEER-based analysis shows that the present exchange rates of the countries
considered do not deviate significantly from their equilibrium rates. As a consequence, based on BEER analysis, we do not
expect large fluctuations in the effective exchange rates among the currencies considered. Hence, the relevant effective exchange
rates are expected to be relatively stable. As a matter of fact, the entry of those countries into EMU is not expected to
weaken the stability of Euro.
相似文献
Nikolaos GiannellisEmail: |
24.
针对我国2001~2010年季度数据,通过使用协整关系检验、格兰杰因果检验以及方差分解分析方法进行实证研究发现,长期内我国货币供给的变化与物价和产出的变化之间存在唯一的协整关系;同时存在一个单向的Granger因果关系:货币供给增长率是物价水平增长率的Granger原因,即长期内货币供应量仅对物价水平产生影响。最后根据实证分析结果对货币政策选择提出政策建议。 相似文献
25.
26.
This paper examines market integration between fish species in Europe, taking international market integration into account. Based on Juselius (2006) , market integration is found both on the fresh and frozen markets. The Law of One Price is in force on the fresh market within the segments of flatfish and pelagic fish. Assuming transitivity, a loose form of market integration is identified between 13 fresh and seven frozen fish species, and the relative prices are found fairly stable. The policy implication is that catch limitation measures implemented through the Common Fisheries Policy have limited and conditional effects on prices, because of the large size of the market and varying market integration. Therefore, many fishermen are not ‘compensated’ by price increases as a result of catch limitation measures. 相似文献
27.
FDI、国际贸易及我国经济增长的协整分析与VECM模型 总被引:22,自引:0,他引:22
本文利用我国1983-2004年的经济数据进行实证检验,根据协整理论建立向量误差修正模型(VECM)。实证结果说明外国直接投资、国际贸易与经济增长间具有长期均衡关系,且我国国内生产总值的增长与外国直接投资有双向因果关系,但相互影响的程度不同;我国为出口导向型经济增长国家且外国直接投资对国际贸易具有促进作用. 相似文献
28.
29.
一般来说,利率在国家间的传导主要有两条渠道:国际贸易间的传导和资本自由流动下的利率平价机制。本文采取分阶段考察,通过建立计量经济学模型,利用单位根检验和协整分析加以验证,发现在资本项目部分开放后,中美利率开始具有联动效应,作用方式又具有自身的特点。目前资本项目开放度不够高是阻碍我国同世界利率联动的主要原因。 相似文献
30.
Rodrigo Valdes Stephan Von Cramon‐Taubadel Alejandra Engler 《Agricultural Economics》2016,47(5):571-580
This article explores the drivers of regional stock market integration with a focus on the agribusiness sector across relevant regional trade blocs around the world. We implement panel cointegration models to analyze the stock indices of agribusiness firms in the Southern Common Market (MERCOSUR), European Union (EU), Asia‐Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), and North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Based on the literature on market integration and stock return pricing, we identify nine possible determinants of stock market integration, which we separate into three categories: individual market performance, macroeconomic conditions, and agricultural trade. In our analysis, we account for agriculture‐specific factors to control for possible structural shifts in financial markets regimes by including the two main commodity price bubbles during last 20 years. Our results show that most of the variables included in our categories have been important factors in promoting regional stock market integration. Moreover, integration among regional stock markets was strengthened by the implementation of trade agreements. This effect is stronger in trade blocs with fewer members, such as NAFTA and MERCOSUR, compared with larger and more heterogeneous blocs, such as the EU and APEC. 相似文献