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91.
We estimate quarterly cointegrating vector autoregressive models for the Eurozone and the USA based on long-run restrictions
derived from a dynamic open economy model. Three long-run relations between the Eurozone and the USA emerge: relative purchasing
power parity, international interest parity and a stationary output gap between the two economies. Generalized impulse response
functions show differences in the dynamic adjustment of the two economies. Due to the I(1)-characteristic of both output series
and the stability conditions imposed by the long-run equilibrium relationships, shocks to the model produce level effects
only, while growth rates converge to their long-run averages.
相似文献
Thomas UrlEmail: |
92.
Energy productivity is crucial for sustainable development. We use cointegration analyses to investigate the effect of electricity on energy productivity in Swedish industry from 1930 to 1990. Electricity augmented energy productivity in those industrial branches that used electricity for multiple purposes. This productivity effect goes beyond “book-keeping effects,” i. e. it is not only the result of electricity being produced in one sector (taking the energy transformation losses) and consumed in another (receiving the benefits). 相似文献
93.
In this paper, we have re-examined the identification of the NAIRU and presented a well-defined reduced form for analysing the equilibrium unemployment rate, using a cointegrated VAR model. We have stated that the NAIRU estimates using the conventional reduced form (or Phillips curve) models are misleading since the natural rate of unemployment cannot be considered as a fixed point calling for the ceteris paribus assumption for all the data involved. This implies that the NAIRU estimates are unable to provide valuable information on the labour market status. 相似文献
94.
95.
The cause of Danish unemployment: Demand or supply shocks? 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
We study the Danish unemployment experience 1905–92 using a common trends model with cointegration constraints. To justify
the identifying assumptions about the cointegration vectors and the common trends we present a simple macroeconomic model
of the labor market. The model determines the long run behavior of labor productivity, employment, unemployment, real product
and real consumer wages. The empirical results give support for three cointegration relations and two common trends. Based
on the economic model the trends are interpreted as representing labor productivity (technology) and labor supply. With unemployment
being nonstationary, the common trends analysis indicates that labor supply shocks is the primary source for explaining the
behavior of unemployment.
First Version Received: August 1999/Final Version Received: June 2000 相似文献
96.
97.
成蓉 《对外经济贸易大学学报》2008,(1):33-37
改革开放以来,浙江省对外贸易和GDP双双高速增长,是我国外贸快速发展的典型代表。基于浙江省1978-2005年GDP及进出口贸易数据的协整分析表明:浙江省实际GDP和实际出口总额、实际进口总额之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系。格兰杰因果检验则得出进口增长是经济增长的单向原因,经济增长是出口增长的单向原因的结论。在此结论基础上,提出了浙江省对外贸易发展的政策建议。 相似文献
98.
Several recent papers have underlined the importance of microstructure effects in understanding exchange rate behavior by documenting stable long-run relationships between cumulated order flows and spot exchange rates. This stands in contrast to the widely-studied failure of exchange rates to conform to the long-run behavior implied by “conventional” macroeconomic models and is consistent with the prediction of micro-structure models. We re-examine the evidence for stable long-run relationships. We find that such evidence exists only for a small number of the major currencies we examine and that it is statistically fragile. We conclude that this implication of microstructure models does not fit the data as well as previous studies suggest. 相似文献
99.
房地产市场在货币政策传导机制中的作用研究 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
利用2006年1月至2008年12月的相关数据,运用协整分析、格兰杰因果检验等计量方法,先研究货币政策到房地产市场传导的有效性,再分析房地产市场到最终目标(实体经济)传导的有效性。结果表明:房地产市场在货币政策传导机制中发挥了重要作用,M2、M1是房价指数变化的格兰杰原因,房价指数是工业增加值、居民消费物价指数、社会消费品零售总额变化的格兰杰原因。 相似文献
100.