广交会:地位、存在问题及改革方向

通过对参加百届广交会的进口采购商、出口商和部分实习学生进行实地调研及数据分析,文章归纳分析了广交会存在的意义,研究并指出了广交会目前存在的问题及其可能、可行的改革方向。     

二十一世纪将实现物流全球一体化

物流全球一体化就是建立一个全球统一的物流系统，来完成全世界范围内的物流活动，为全世界的物流需求服务。从物流在国内外的发展趋势和经济全球化的客观要求看，物流在21世纪发展的最终目标将是物流全球一体化。     

The predictability of aggregate returns on commodity futures

This paper provides evidence that aggregate returns on commodity futures (without the returns on collateral) are predictable, both in-sample and out-of-sample, by various lagged variables from the stock market, bond market, macroeconomics, and the commodity market. Out of the 32 candidate predictors we consider, we find that investor sentiment is the best in-sample predictor of short-horizon returns, whereas the level and slope of the yield curve have much in-sample predictive power for long-horizon returns. We find that it is possible to forecast aggregate returns on commodity futures out-of-sample through several combination forecasts (the out-of-sample return forecasting R² is up to 1.65% at the monthly frequency).     

The economic sustainability of optimizing feedstock imports with environmental constraints

The energetic crisis jeopardizes the safety of nations and people in multiple ways. In addressing the problem of commodity production out of feedstock imports, an eco-environmentally rational agent aims at minimizing the cost of feedstock imports and their increasingly expensive transportation, but also the water footprint of the feedstock production process and the water scarcity in the exporting countries. This implies the need for more accurate feedstock import strategies, that account for the increased multiplicity of factors at play. This study proves the existence of solutions and quantitatively demonstrates that transportation costs and non-uniform feedstock characteristics inhibit feedstock interchangeability, by solving a novel nonlinear program that accounts for the complexity of the factors at play. Moreover, it is shown that the interplay between water footprint and water scarcity across countries can inhibit or foster feedstock interchangeability. Model validation strategies and a sensitivity analysis complete the study.     

Quantile connectedness between Chinese stock and commodity futures markets

In this study, we examine the static and dynamic connectedness between the conventional Chinese stock market and commodity futures (aluminum, gold, copper, steel rebar, natural rubber, and zinc). Our results show that both steel rebar and gold receive whereas zinc and copper transmit changes across all quantiles. However, spillover behavior of aluminum, natural rubber, and CSI 300 vary across different quantiles. Our results have implications for investors who are considering a mix of Chinese conventional stocks and commodity futures in their portfolios. Our findings also provide insights for investing under different market conditions by providing results for static as well as dynamic connectedness between CSI 300 and the commodities market.     

Can cryptocurrencies provide a viable hedging mechanism for benchmark index investors?

This paper investigates the non-linear causal nexus at lower, medium, and upper quantiles that cryptocurrencies can generate as a hedging mechanism for international benchmark indices, as represented by the MSCI World index and its sectoral sub-indices. Significant causality-in-mean between each of the assets examined is detected at lower quantiles only in a small number of sectors, whereas all analysed assets are found to trigger important non-linear causal impacts on the volatility of the selected benchmark indices, particularly during periods denoted to possess significant asset price fluctuations. From a financial perspective, this result suggests that cryptocurrencies are developing to possess a very similar ability to that of long-standing traditional financial assets, serving as a hedging mechanism against extreme fluctuations within investor portfolios that include MSCI constituents during a variety of very different market conditions.