小麦期货收益时间序列分析

本文研究了我国郑州商品期货交易所小麦期货近三年来的收益时间序列,对其进行了基本的统计学分析,结果发现分布是非正态的,较正态分布有尖峰厚尾,具有长记忆效应。进一步对其中具有ARCH效应的序列合约进行了分析,采用GARCH和EGARCH类模型进行了描述,分析了期货收益的波动集群性和杠杆效应。     

西部农村市场发育滞后的三大障碍

当前,彻底解决西部的"三农"问题和西部农村的发展,需要开拓我国西部农村市场.研究发现,西部农村市场的发育滞后主要是由构成西部农村市场的供给和农村市场的需求不够完善,以及西部农村市场发展的外部渠道不够畅通等因素共同作用的结果.因此,开拓我国西部农村市场是一个长期而复杂的系统工程.     

Globalization, marketing resources, and performance: Evidence from China

Two important areas are underexplored in the relationship between marketing resources and performance. First, the subject has been primarily investigated in the context of Western countries, and inadequate attention has been given to emerging economies. Second, despite the recent growth in globalization, the moderating role of globalization on the link between marketing resources and performance has not been investigated. Addressing these important gaps, this article focuses on an emerging economy (China) and explores the moderating effect of globalization on this link. Specifically, the authors develop several hypotheses highlighting the moderating role of globalization activities (global product sourcing, global market seeking, and global partnership) on the link between marketing resources (market orientation, entrepreneurial orientation, and innovative capability) and firm performance. The findings of the moderating role of globalization provide several important implications for marketing theory development and managerial practice. Xueming Luo (luoxm@uta.edu) is an assistant professor in the Department of Marketing in the College of Business Administration at the University of Texas at Arlington. Before joining the University of Texas at Arlington faculty, he was on the faculty of the State University of New York at Fredonia. His research has appeared in various journals, including theJournal of Business Research, the International Journal of Research in Marketing, the Journal of Advertising Research, the Journal of Interactive Advertising, and Industrial Marketing Management. K. Sivakumar (Ph.D., Syracuse University; k.sivakumar@lehigh. edu) is the Arthur Tauck Professor of International Marketing & Logistics and a professor of marketing at Lehigh University. Prior to joining Lehigh in 2001, he spent 9 years at the University of Illinois in Chicago. His research interests include pricing, global marketing, and innovation management. His research has been published or is forthcoming in theJournal of the Academy of Marketing Science, the Journal of Marketing, the Journal of International Business Studies, Decision Sciences Journal, Marketing Letters, the Journal of Business Research, International Marketing Review, the Journal of Product Innovation Management, Pricing Strategy & Practice: An International Journal, Psychology & Marketing, and other publications. He has won several awards for his research (including theDonald Lehman Award) and is on the editorial board of several scholarly journals. He has won outstanding reviewer awards from two journals. Sandra S. Liu (liuss@purdue.edu) is an associate professor in the Department of Consumer Sciences and Retailing at Purdue University. She received her Ph.D. from the University of London, and her current research interest focuses on strategic marketing issues in the context of customer contact, including knowledge management in a corporation in transition and sales management in a knowledge economy. With her extensive industry experience, she has written a number of books and journal articles, which have appeared in theInternational Journal of Research in Marketing, the Journal of Business Research, theEuropean Journal of Marketing, Marketing Intelligence and Planning, among others.     

发展粮食期货市场 促进粮食市场化改革

随着粮食生产经营的全面市场化,健全和完善粮食期货市场有了更重要的现实意义:调节粮食供求,稳定粮食价格;优化粮食品种结构,推动产业化经营;为粮食企业提供避险渠道;减轻入世冲击,保护粮食安全。文章指出发展粮食期货市场的政策措施包括:推出大宗粮食期货交易品种;培育和发展套期保值用户;规范粮食现货市场;发展商品投资基金;开创场外交易;调整不符合国际惯例的法规政策。     

武汉市农贸市场超市化改造问题研究

武汉作为全国"农改超"先行的特大城市之一,经过两年多的实践与探索,"农改超"已初见成效,但仍存在市场主体利益关系复杂、超市生鲜食品营运成本较高、超市农业发展滞后、农产品物流配送体系不健全、制度环境不够宽松等制约因素.为此,需要调整利益关系格局、培育壮大生鲜经营主体、大力发展超市农业、构建现代农产品物流配送体系和营造"农改超"的良好环境.     

Multivariate volatility forecasts for stock market indices

Volatility forecasts aim to measure future risk and they are key inputs for financial analysis. In this study, we forecast the realized variance as an observable measure of volatility for several major international stock market indices and accounted for the different predictive information present in jump, continuous, and option-implied variance components. We allowed for volatility spillovers in different stock markets by using a multivariate modeling approach. We used heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR)-type models to obtain the forecasts. Based an out-of-sample forecast study, we show that: (i) including option-implied variances in the HAR model substantially improves the forecast accuracy, (ii) lasso-based lag selection methods do not outperform the parsimonious day-week-month lag structure of the HAR model, and (iii) cross-market spillover effects embedded in the multivariate HAR model have long-term forecasting power.     

Noisy chaotic dynamics in commodity markets

The nonlinear testing and modeling of economic and financial time series has increased substantially in recent years, enabling us to better understand market and price behavior, risk and the formation of expectations. Such tests have also been applied to commodity market behavior, providing evidence of heteroskedasticity, chaos, long memory, cyclicity, etc. The present evaluation of futures price behavior confirms that the resulting price movements can be random, suggesting noisy chaotic behavior. Prices could thus follow a mean process that is dynamic chaotic, coupled with a variance that follows a GARCH process. Our conclusion is that models of this type could be constructed to assist in forecasting prices in the short run but not over long run time periods.First version received: June 2001/Final version received: March 2003     

Utility Regulation and Risk Allocation: The Roles of Marginal Cost Pricing and Futures Markets

The effects on consumer welfare of requiring a utility facing cost or demand risk to use either a fixed retail price or marginal cost pricing are assessed. With marginal cost pricing and cost volatility an efficient futures market allows consumer welfare to be at least as high in every state as with the fixed price. With demand risk marginal cost pricing can benefit the consumer in every state without harming the firm if the profit difference is transferred to the consumer. A futures market can act as a partial replacement for the transfer.     

Competitive search markets for durable goods

Summary. This paper considers a dynamic version of Akerlof's (1970) lemons problem where buyers and sellers must engage in search to find a trading partner. We show that if goods are durable, the market itself may provide a natural sorting mechanism. In equilibrium, high-quality goods sell at a higher price than low-quality goods but also circulate longer. This accords with the common wisdom that sellers who want to sell fast may have to accept a lower price. We then compare the equilibrium outcomes under private information with those under complete information. Surprisingly, we find that for a large range of parameter values the quilibrium outcomes under the two information regimes coincide, despite the fact that circulation time is used to achieve separation. Received: August 24, 2000; revised version: October 24, 2000     

Inter-enterprise arrears in economies in transition

In the context of economies in transition, the paper argues that an excessive liquidity squeeze could throw the economy into a persistent state of low economic activity. In such bad equilibrium, enterprise transactions become largely demonetized, with a chain of arrears, a form of involuntary credit, spreading over the entire system. The empirical analysis of the Romanian experience seems to support the view advanced in the paper.