Passive farming and land development: A real options approach

The EU's farmers are no longer required to produce commodities to receive direct payments as long as they keep their land in good condition. Some believe this is bad for development because it encourages passive farming. We evaluate, using a real options approach, the implications of decoupled payments for the desirability and optimal timing of agricultural land development when considering sunk investment costs and uncertain future returns. We find that decoupled payments accelerate development while passive farming increases, by adding managerial flexibility, the value associated with land. We then use the Nash bargaining solution to identify the rental share to be paid for leasing land. We show that a deal for the lease of land can always be reached, but that the facility to use passive farming as an outside option allows landowners to extract policy rents, thereby undermining the potential for the Basic Payment Scheme to support tenant farmers’ incomes.     

COMMON‐ENEMY EFFECTS: MULTIDISCIPLINARY ANTECEDENTS AND ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES

A disparate literature hypothesizes what can broadly be described as the common‐enemy effect: the fact that the interaction with a common enemy (formed by Nature, an individual, or a group) increases cooperation. This review identifies the multidisciplinary antecedents of this effect, and then distinguishes between several strands of literature applying noncooperative game theory to account for it. A first strand argues that the threat posed by a common enemy makes each player's cooperative effort more critical. In a second strand a behavioral common‐enemy effect caused by group interaction is studied experimentally. A third strand models the common‐enemy effect as the formation of a coalition of players against another player in a contest. A fourth strand formalizes the principle that the ‘enemy of my enemy is my friend’, either in a model of social relations, interdependent altruistic preferences, or indirect reciprocity in repeated games. The connections between these strands of literature are investigated, and questions for future research are proposed.     

Time-varying comovement and changes of comovement structure in the Chinese stock market: A causal network method

The driving force for the comovement in stock returns is a long-standing debate between classical asset pricing theory and behavioral finance theory. It has become critically important recently for understanding systemic risk and risk contagion in the market. In this study, we propose complex networks enabled new methods to measure the causal comovement of individual stocks and the comovement structure of the market, which facilitate the examination of all kinds of hypotheses of comovement theories in a unified framework. Using a sample of the Chinese stock market from Jan. 1, 2006 to Dec. 31, 2016, we find that the degree of comovement generally intensifies over time, with a drastic increase from 2011 to 2015, while the comovement structure of the market changes with different market situations. Most importantly, our study reveals the driving force of causal comovement among individual stocks; that is, sentiment-based factors related to the market index indeed induce excess causal comovement in returns beyond that can be justified by fundamental factors including beta coefficient, book-to-market ratio, liquidity, profitability and volatility. Our study also reveals the determinants of comovement structure, which are attributable to the change of investors' behaviors in different periods. It turns out that investors in the Chinese stock market care about risk-return relationship in normal periods, while they seem to care only about risk in crisis periods.     

基于关键性风险因素的中国金融状况指标体系构建研究

文章从系统性风险冲击来源的角度拓展并构建了包含关键性风险因素的FCI，并以FCI作为同步指标构建了金融景气指标体系，包括金融一致指数、金融先行指数以及金融滞后指数，在此基础上对我国金融状况进行了预测分析。结果显示：关键性风险因素中，房价波动风险与银行业不良贷款风险惯性特征明显，但也受其他因素的冲击影响，需对其进行风险监控，去产能风险则受其他因素的影响显著，需辅以经济政策与调控措施来保证产能过剩行业的稳定；2018年中国经济增长面临较大不确定性，尽管中国金融状况长期向好的趋势性特征没有改变，但当前以及未来一段时间内中国均以较高的转移概率处于风险积聚区制，且存在着影响中国金融状况稳定的其他因素，应更多关注系统性风险的防控。     

Common method bias in hospitality research: A critical review of literature and an empirical study

Common method variance has received much attention in the behavioral sciences. Nonetheless, scant scholarly effort has been invested in handling common method variance in hospitality research. This study investigates the current status of controlling for common method variance in hospitality research and assists researchers in taking appropriate actions. Study 1 shows hospitality researchers’ endeavors to control for common method bias through a critical review of literature published in four leading hospitality journals in the ten years from 2006 to 2015: International Journal of Hospitality Management, Journal of Hospitality & Tourism Research, Cornell Hospitality Quarterly and International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management. In Study 2, empirical investigations examine the effectiveness of a procedural remedy (temporal separation) and a statistical control (an unmeasured method factor approach) with two independent samples. The results of Study 1 reveal that most survey-related publications in the four journals fail to address or acknowledge common method variance. Moreover, only a limited number of techniques is found to be used to control for method variance. The findings of Study 2 suggest that temporal separation with a time lag of one day leads to a weak control for method variance; however, the use of an unmeasured method factor significantly helps control for method variance in the model.     

Equilibrium selection in common-value second-price auctions

This note considers equilibrium selection in common-value second-price auctions with two bidders. We show that for each ex post equilibrium in continuous and undominated strategies, a sequence of “almost common-value” auctions can be constructed such that each of them possesses a unique undominated and continuous equilibrium and the corresponding sequence of equilibria converges to that ex post equilibrium. As an implication, no equilibrium selection of this model based on perturbations seems to be more convincing than others.     

关于"大城市连绵区"相关概念的探讨

重点从语词使用、概念属性、范围界定三个方面对"大城市连绵区"及相关概念进行了分析和讨论.基于国家战略考虑,建议规范两类通用概念,即国际视野的"大城市连绵区"和国家视野的"城镇密集区".大城市连绵区的范围界定宜采用周一星教授关于都市连绵区的界定标准,城镇密集区的范围界定应结合相关研究成果进行修订.     

Spillovers and international competition for investments

Two jurisdictions compete to attract shares of the investment budget of a large multinational enterprise, whose investments confer positive spillovers on national firms. The firm has private information about its efficiency and about spillovers. It is shown that the firm may be harmed by tax competition. Relative to a cooperative tax agreement, tax competition may induce excessive investments in the country where the positive spillover effects are lowest. Also, with sufficiently asymmetric spillovers, investments under competition will be excessively spread out, not properly concentrated to the country where spillovers would be largest.     

Macroeconomic interdependence in East Asia

This paper analyzes macroeconomic interdependence among 10 Asian economies. In this connection, we decompose their macroeconomic activities (real GDP) into common and country-specific components using the Bai–Ng method (2004). Our results suggest first that both components are non-stationary and have permanent effects on their overall economy. Second, we find the relative importance of common factors in all countries in terms of their contribution to variations in real GDP. But evidence is also obtained for country-specific effects becoming increasingly important in countries like China in recent years. Therefore, if, for example, China is expected to grow at a fast pace in future, our findings imply that creation of a regional monetary union of these 10 countries needs to be held back until the Chinese economy has become more dominant in the region.     

Finite order implications of common priors in infinite models

Lipman [Lipman, B., 2003. Finite order implications of common priors, Econometrica, 71 (July), 1255–1267] shows that in a finite model, the common prior assumption has weak implications for finite orders of beliefs about beliefs. In particular, the only such implications are those stemming from the weaker assumption of a common support. To explore the role of the finite model assumption in generating this conclusion, this paper considers the finite order implications of common priors in the simplest possible infinite model, namely, a countable model. I show that in countable models, the common prior assumption also implies a tail consistency condition regarding beliefs. More specifically, I show that in a countable model, the finite order implications of the common prior assumption are the same as those stemming from the assumption that priors have a common support and have tail probabilities converging to zero at the same rate.