行为金融学的研究现状与展望

由心理学家和金融学家共同发展起来的行为金融学越来越引人注目,它以前景理论和各种行为金融模型为代表性成果,能有效分析金融市场中由于心理因素引起的投资者失误偏差和市场异象,是现代金融学理论的有益补充。未来的行为金融学如想成为现代金融理论体系的中心,或作为一门单独学科而存在,必须形成统一的理论基础、严密的分析范式、明确的研究主线、研究对象和研究方法以及建立新的基于行为的核心模型。     

Polarities between Naturalism and Non-Naturalism in Contemporary Economics: An Overview

We provide a dynamic model of banking competition, in which bounded rationality of some competitors explains how the credit cycle is intensified. We model the economic cycle following Tobias F. Rötheli (2012b), who argues that boundedly rational banks, in their Bayesian learning, overestimate the probability of success during booms and underestimate it during recessions. We obtain three main results. First, the model suggests that pessimism/underconfidence is not a powerful driver of credit cycles. Instead, it supports the conclusion that it is euphoria during large upswings that leads to the next crunch. Second, the dynamization of the model provides further insight into the way boundedly rational competition intensifies the credit cycle. Third, it additionally predicts that the effects of behavioral biases are more pervasive when the quality of the niche markets is lower.     

我国西部生态环境建设绩效评价体系研究

“局部改善,整体恶化”是我国西部地区生态环境状况的真实概括。为了治理西部地区的生态环境,党中央于1999年6月确定了西部大开发战略,将能源开发同生态环境治理并举。6年来,中央财政性建设资金投向西部地区4600亿元,转移支付和专项补助5000多亿元。国家计划在10年间退耕还林2．2亿亩,投资3600亿元。由于生态环境建设的绩效是一个漫长的量变累积过程,通过确定我国西部地区生态环境状况四大特征,建立“常态、一般、差”三级评价指标体系,对西部地区生态环境建设的绩效做出客观评价,有利于坚定人们对西部地区生态环境建设的信心。     

Micro-foundation for a constant elasticity of substitution production function through mechanization

We consider an increase in the range of capital use as a form of mechanization. A constant elasticity of substitution (CES) production function is dynamically derived from Leontief production functions through the endogenous complementary relationship between capital accumulation and mechanization. This implies that a CES production function can be resolved into technological change that does not involve changes in total factor productivity. Furthermore, using the normalizing procedure of the CES production function developed by de La Grandville [de La Grandville, O., 1989. In quest of the Slutsky diamond. American Economic Review 79, 468–481], we investigate how mechanization is related to the elasticity of substitution in our endogenous growth model.     

Survival on the Titanic: Illustrating Wald and Lagrange Multiplier Tests for Proportions and Logits

Abstract: Students are interested in lecture examples and class exercises involving data connected to the maiden voyage and the sinking of the liner Titanic. Information on the passengers and their fate can be used to explore relationships between various tests for differences in survival rates between different groups of passengers. Among the concepts the authors examined are tests for differences of proportions using a normal distribution, a chi-square test for independence, a test for the equality of two logits, and a test for the significance of the coefficient of a binary variable in logit model. The authors examined the relationship between Wald and Lagrange Multiplier test statistics and give two related examples.     

基于低碳视角下物流金融的发展策略研究

低碳物流逐渐成为低碳经济的重要组成部分,是落实科学发展观、应对全球气候变化的重要举措。如何让物流金融业适应经济发展的低碳要求,是一个值得认真探索的问题。通过对我国物流金融运作模式的现状分析,结合低碳经济对现代物流金融的挑战,从政府、金融机构、物流企业等多方面提出了相应的发展策略,对低碳视角下物流金融的发展有着重要的意义。     

Fiscal space on the eurozone periphery and the use of the (partially) balanced-budget multiplier: The case of Spain

This article adopts the “functional finance” approach to consider the utilization of expansive fiscal policies in the members of the European Monetary Union most affected by high unemployment. As they do not have their own monetary policy, fiscal deficits require the issuing of public debt without the support of the central bank. The authors consequently incorporate the notion of a (partially) balanced-budget expansion to achieve the desired stimulus in gross domestic product (GDP) with the least possible effect on public debt. Their proposal is only a sort of “imperfect” balanced-budget expansion: It is based on the idea that simultaneous increases in public revenue and expenditure can boost GDP, but without any pretension of keeping public deficit unchanged. Specifically, the authors use the case of Spain to show that a more expansive fiscal policy is desirable on economic grounds, and that only institutional constraints prevent it. They do it presenting two alternative scenarios for the coming years and analyzing their different impact on unemployment and fiscal sustainability. The first represents a firm commitment to budget consolidation, whereas the second is based on this “imperfect” application of the balanced budget multiplier. The main conclusion is that a more expansive fiscal policy is perfectly compatible with finance sustainability.     

国际碳排博弈现状及中国低碳经济对策

自从气候门变成了一场罗生门,在全球变暖变冷未定的情况下,世界低碳博弈逐渐演变成了一场政治马拉松。面对欧盟的碳排总量限定和美国的碳关税征收,作为发展中国家,我们在这场博弈中应强调权利与义务相匹配,坚持＂共同但有区别责任＂,为产业升级与新能源发展争取时间。一方面,积极参与清洁能源合作机制,从国外获得资金技术支持和管理经验或者合作伙伴;另一方面,从国内政府支持、法律新规、管理层更替及新能源研发着手,在未来实现能源利用率提高与能源结构多元化,从而实现可持续发展。