经济发展方式转型与经济软实力空间分布关联研究——以河南18个省辖市区域为例

经济软实力是决定经济发展方式转型的关键因子,经济软、硬实力的不同配置决定经济发展方式类型。经济软实力不仅内在具有推动经济发展方式转型的能力,而且还具有实现其转型的内在机理。通过河南省区域经济软实力空间分布及其与区域发展指数关联的实证分析,证明以提升经济软实力促进区域经济发展方式转变是经济发展的一种必然规律。     

Trade and financial liberalization with asymmetric information in bank financing

We investigate trade and financial openness in a small developing country where entrepreneurs need bank financing to operate in an import‐competing sector but banks do not observe their ability. This informational asymmetry causes adverse selection of low‐ability individuals into entrepreneurship and also prevents poor but able individuals from being entrepreneurs. We find that trade opening improves national welfare, but a tax is needed on foreign financial capital. Trade opening reduces an income gap between the rich and the poor, while financial opening affects this income gap ambiguously.     

招商引资——税收减免竞赛

近年来,地方政府超出法律范围制定优惠政策尤其是税收优惠政策来吸引客商的现象时有发生,给我国带来了消极影响。税收在招商引资工作中应如何发挥作用成了摆在我们面前的一个重大问题。十六届三中全会提出的科学发展观对我国各项事业的发展都具有普遍的指导意义。本文正是从科学发展观的要求出发,重新定位了税收在招商引资工作中的角色,并试着提出了相应的措施。     

技术型企业过往绩效对团队创新行为的影响：关系冲突的中介效应

基于IMOI模型,引入具备动态特征的“过往绩效”概念,利用长三角地区101个项目导向型研发团队问卷数据,依据社会信息处理理论和归因理论探讨过往绩效对团队创新行为的影响效果与内在机制。结果发现,过往绩效与团队创新行为显著正相关,关系冲突在过往绩效影响创新行为路径中起部分中介作用,并且关系冲突的中介机制在中国“人情”文化背景下能得到更好的解释;进一步,团队内部的恶意归因倾向在这一过程中发挥着调节作用。研究结果有助于从新视角探索技术型团队创新行为诱发机制,对双创背景下技术型企业创新管理实践具有一定参考意义。     

The relationship between negative life events and resilience among Chinese service employees: Nonlinearly moderated by lifestyle habits

The high level of resilience is a valuable trait that can assist service employees to manage diverse pressures, and contribute to maintaining a high quality of service while promoting mental health. This study examined work and life factors that impacted the resilience levels of Chinese service employees. The survey data were collected from a total of 753 employees from various service sectors in China. A multi-level regression analysis were used to test the hypotheses. The confirmatory factor analysis verified the reliability and validity of each measurement, indicating its suitability and implications in the Chinese context. Our findings revealed a negative relationship between negative life events and the resilience levels of Chinese service employees, and an inverted U-shaped relationship was observed between negative life events and resilience when employees reported that they adopted more positive lifestyle habits. The implications and limitations of this study are also discussed.     

M5 competition uncertainty: Overdispersion,distributional forecasting,GAMLSS, and beyond

The M5 competition uncertainty track aims for probabilistic forecasting of sales of thousands of Walmart retail goods. We show that the M5 competition data face strong overdispersion and sporadic demand, especially zero demand. We discuss modeling issues concerning adequate probabilistic forecasting of such count data processes. Unfortunately, the majority of popular prediction methods used in the M5 competition (e.g. lightgbm and xgboost GBMs) fail to address the data characteristics, due to the considered objective functions. Distributional forecasting provides a suitable modeling approach to overcome those problems. The GAMLSS framework allows for flexible probabilistic forecasting using low-dimensional distributions. We illustrate how the GAMLSS approach can be applied to M5 competition data by modeling the location and scale parameters of various distributions, e.g. the negative binomial distribution. Finally, we discuss software packages for distributional modeling and their drawbacks, like the R package gamlss with its package extensions, and (deep) distributional forecasting libraries such as TensorFlow Probability.     

Out-of-stock justifications and consumers’ behavioral outcomes– exploring the role of product type and sales level information in out-of-stock situations

The present study extends prior research on stockouts by examining how product-related attributes interact with OOS justifications to influence consumer responses to stockouts. Drawing from Out-of-stock (OOS) literature, this study investigates how perceived popularity, perceived uniqueness, negative affect, and behavioral outcomes are influenced by out-of-stock justifications, product type, and sales level. Two scenario-based experiments and two field studies are conducted in which the cause of the stockout, product type, and sales level are manipulated at different levels. The results of the studies provide the following primary insights- 1) Consumers infer popularity of the product when the product is OOS due to high demand or when the sales level is high 2) Consumers infer uniqueness of the product when the product is OOS due to short supply but not when sales level is low 3) As the perceived popularity of utilitarian products or the perceived uniqueness of hedonic products increases, consumers' propensity to switch stores to purchase the OOS products increases 4) Consumers’ intention to spread negative word of mouth decreases when the cause of OOS or a high sales level is specified. Retailers can influence behavioral outcomes by specifying the cause of stockout tailored according to the type of product, or by providing sales level information.     

Logistics optimization through a social approach for food distribution

The management of supply chains is becoming more important in economic and social environments. Currently, the social sustainability is a factor that must be considered to design governmental strategies and policies. The objective of this research paper was to show, with a case study an approach to optimize distribution and delivery logistics of food in a social assistance program of school breakfast using mathematical models that include transportation distance, optimal locations, and vehicle routing through different clusters. By using qualitative variables like poverty levels, food insecurity and social exclusion, different clustering methods are proposed with the purpose of identifying the common characteristics in the studied population; and at the same time, reducing the distribution complexity. The results show an efficient approach to design a supply chain that includes economic and social factors. The new model developed in this paper can be used to plan social assistance governmental programs, to identify the specific needs and characteristics of the beneficiaries, minimizing the total cost of the distribution network logistics when delivering food for school meals.     

Bancarization and violent attacks from guerrilla and other illegal groups in Colombia

Income shocks affect violence through the opportunity cost and rapacity effects. Existing studies focus on the impact of transitory shocks, especially commodity price innovations. This paper builds on this literature and studies the causal effect of permanent income shocks on armed conflict in Colombia. Using a rich dataset reporting all guerrilla and other armed groups' attacks by municipality between 2009 and 2014 and information on the provision of banking services, it shows that increasing bancarization leads to reductions in violence. These results have important implications for public policy in countries with a long history of violence. They suggest that promoting financial inclusion is useful for reducing conflict.     

Extendible stock loan

In this paper, the model of extendible stock loan with forbearance is proposed. The loan is extendible, so as to prevent immediate losses or to prevent subsequent price drop; while the forbearance is granted only when the pledged share’s value is above threshold, so as to mitigate the risk-taking behavior induced by the extension. The non-synchronization of the liquidation of insolvent stock loans also alleviates the downward leverage spiral in a market downturn. Numerical analysis shows that fair extendible stock loan rates increase with the forbearance level as well as extension period, and loan rates are quite sensitive to the change of asset volatility and debt ratio. For lenders waiving the interest rates during extension period, their burden grows with extension rapidly when they grant looser forbearance and when asset volatility or loan-to-value is higher. Some suggestions are made accordingly. First, lenders offering uniform extendible loan rate can let borrowers choose between looser forbearance with shorter extension, or tighter forbearance with longer extension. Second, if the loan rate is priced fairly, lower margin requirement can only be accomplished with tighter forbearance. More looser forbearance worth higher rates.