金融自由化、非对称调整与新兴市场的金融危机

二战后,新兴市场经济(EMS)也存在广泛的金融抑制。抑制政策可能有短期增长效应;但本文理论模型显示,长期内,竞争机制会耗散金融租金,EMS实际增长率低于有保障和自然的增长率。70年代末期以来,EMS放松了金融规制。因价格调整快于数量调整、金融市场调整快于产品和劳动力市场,金融自由化产生负产出效应。负产出是基本的风险源。来自于金融、实际部门的任何冲击以及制度与政策失灵,都可能引发金融危机。抑制程度越深,负产出效应越大,人均产出越低,自由化过程中发生金融危机的概率也越大。本文使用25个国家1980～2001年的数据,以二元选择模型对上述假说进行实证检验。     

Students' Characteristics and Performance in Economic Statistics

The vast majority of studies in college economics have dealt with the introductory principles course. In one of the rare research projects dealing with other courses, Professor Cohn attempts to identify factors affecting student performance in economic statistics. He considers such variables as grade point average, graduate vs. undergraduate status, major field, sex and credits in economics, mathematics and statistics. There are a few recognized limitations to his model, but the reader will find some of his results to be surprising indeed.     

The sources of the Kuznets relationship between road fatalities and economic growth

This paper reports the results of an empirical analysis of the Kuznets curve relationship between per capita income and road fatalities across 60 countries over the period 1972-2004. This relationship hypothesizes that the number of road fatalities increases with increasing motorization in the early stages of economic growth. Eventually, due to advances in technical, policy and political institutions, it declines as per capita income increases. The quality of political institutions as well as improvements in medical care and technology are hypothesized to impact road fatalities. Results indicate evidence of a Kuznets curve relationship between per capita income and road fatalities for both highly developed and less developed countries and support our hypothesis that changes in institutional quality and medical improvements underlie the Kuznets relationship. The evidence presented in this study suggests that lowering corruption levels as well as improvements in medical care and technology would help to reduce road fatalities.     

Spatial modelling of claim frequency and claim size in non-life insurance

In this paper, models for claim frequency and average claim size in non-life insurance are considered. Both covariates and spatial random effects are included allowing the modelling of a spatial dependency pattern. We assume a Poisson model for the number of claims, while claim size is modelled using a Gamma distribution. However, in contrast to the usual compound Poisson model, we allow for dependencies between claim size and claim frequency. A fully Bayesian approach is followed, parameters are estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The issue of model comparison is thoroughly addressed. Besides the deviance information criterion and the predictive model choice criterion, we suggest the use of proper scoring rules based on the posterior predictive distribution for comparing models. We give an application to a comprehensive data set from a German car insurance company. The inclusion of spatial effects significantly improves the models for both claim frequency and claim size, and also leads to more accurate predictions of the total claim sizes. Further, we detect significant dependencies between the number of claims and claim size. Both spatial and number of claims effects are interpreted and quantified from an actuarial point of view.     

汇市干预的理论与实证分析——来自日本的经验

本文以颇具代表性的日本货币当局外汇干预的模式为参照系,对当今世界资金规模最大、金融领域最前沿的外汇市场从理论和实践的角度进行论证,旨在为未来我国人民币国际化后所必将产生的外汇干预等相关问题提供具有实际意义的建议与理念。     

On the emergence of scale-free production networks

We propose a simple dynamical model for the formation of production networks among monopolistically competitive firms. The model subsumes the standard general equilibrium approach à la Arrow–Debreu but displays a wide set of potential dynamic behaviors. It robustly reproduces key stylized facts of firms׳ demographics. Our main result is that competition between intermediate good producers generically leads to the emergence of scale-free production networks.     

论证券投资基金的收益及其分配

证券投资基金的收益主要包括利息收入，股利收入和资本利得。在甸证券市场发育不完善的现阶段，出于会计谨慎性原则的考虑，证券投资基金的收益不应包括股票股利和未实现的资本利得。在收益分配方面，管理层对证券投资基金收益分配政策的限制过程多过死，不利于投资基金业的健康发展，基金持有人大会在基金收益分配政策的制定上应当享有更多的决定权。     

Building up a B2B e-commerce strategic alliance model under an uncertain environment for Taiwan's travel agencies

E-travel agencies adopt B2B strategic alliances in order to strengthen their competitive advantages in the e-commerce travel market and because they are an effective tool to gain wider sustainable gains. External environmental and internal organizational factors impacting the success of strategic alliances model are themselves a crucial issue. This study uses multiple methods to collect data from multiple sources and uses qualitative and quantitative surveys. A two-stage research design is adopted to explore the present strategic alliances between Taiwan's wholesaler e-travel agencies and retailer sub-agencies. The results provide an in-depth understanding into the B2B e-commerce strategic alliance model. According to this research, Taiwanese e-travel agencies consider three external environment uncertainties, five internal organization motivations, five partner selection criteria, and two performance measurements of alliance strategies. Finally, the paper proposes an optimal B2B e-commerce strategic alliance model that matches the essential development needs of B2B e-commerce and overcomes the environmental uncertainties.     

Spam mails impede economic growth

We estimate labor losses caused by spam mails and input these estimated values into a production function, while also estimating damage to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Japan. As a result, we have found that spam mails decreased the Japanese GDP by about 500 billion yen in 2004. This marginal negative effect of spam mail to the GDP increased with the progress of broadband in 2000. Moreover, from the result of a social simulation conducted by the authors, the amount of damage is projected to reach 1% of the Japanese GDP by 2010, unless adequate countermeasures are taken against spam mails. This projection provides a statistical fundamental to several theoretical analyses of spam mails.     

我国金融发展对居民收入分配影响的实证研究

我国金融发展对城乡居民收入分配影响的实证研究结果表明:金融发展规模是城乡居民收入差距的格兰杰原因;金融发展效率与城乡居民收入差距具有双向的格兰杰因果关系.金融发展规模的扩张扩大了城乡居民收入差距,金融发展效率的提升则缩小了城乡居民收入差距.