Diversity in foresight: Insights from the fostering of innovation ideas

Foresight activities have often provided support for objectives such as priority-setting, networking and consensual vision-building. In this paper, we draw upon complementary evolutionary perspectives and discuss these objectives from the viewpoint of diversity which may be vital in contexts characterized by technological discontinuities and high uncertainties. We also argue that although the scanning of weak signals has been widely advocated in such contexts, the solicitation of ideas for prospective innovations may provide more focused, action-oriented, and comparable reflections of future developments. For the analysis of such ideas, we develop a collaborative foresight method RPM Screening which consists of phases for the generation, revision, multi-criteria evaluation, and portfolio analysis of innovation ideas. We also report experiences from a pilot project where this method was employed to enhance the work of the Foresight Forum of the Ministry of Trade and Industry in Finland. Encouraging results from this project and other recent applications suggest that RPM Screening can be helpful in foresight processes and the development of shared research agendas.     

生育政策的地区差异与儿童营养过剩关系研究

近年来,中国的肥胖儿童不断增多。由于该现象发生在“独生子女”政策开始实施以后,后者被认为是前者之因。然而,实证研究的缺乏使生育政策与儿童营养过剩之间的关系尚不明确。使用“中国健康和营养调查”数据,探讨政策与儿童(0-12岁)营养过剩之间的关系。多层模型和纵向分析结果显示,其一,儿童营养过剩的比例在90年代持续攀升,但增长速度较慢。其二,虽然生活在一孩生育政策地区的儿童营养过剩的比例高于其它地区儿童,独生子女营养过剩的比例超过非独生子女,但在其它条件同等的情况下,生育政策的地区差异和姊妹结构与儿童营养过剩概率无显著关联。分析结果并不支持“独生子女政策造成了儿童肥胖”的公共观点。影响儿童营养过剩的主要因素包括父母的体重、母亲的教育、社区发展水平和省份。     

经济系统中的数学建模

论述了经济系统中数学模型的建立问题,并对数学建模过程进行了理论分析。     

The Dynamics of Location in Home Price

It is well established that house prices are dynamic. It is also axiomatic that location influences such selling prices, motivating our objective of incorporating spatial information in explaining the evolution of house prices over time. In this paper, we propose a rich class of spatio-temporal models under which each property is point referenced and its associated selling price modeled through a collection of temporally indexed spatial processes. Such modeling includes and extends all house price index models currently in the literature, and furthermore permits distinction between the effects of time and location. We study single family residential sales in two distinct submarkets of a metropolitan area and further categorize the data into single- and multiple-transaction observations. We find the spatial component is very important in explaining house price. Moreover, the relative homogeneity of homes within the submarket and the frequency with which homes sell affects the pattern of variation across space and time. Differences between single and repeat sale data are evident. The methodology is applicable to more general capital asset pricing when location is anticipated to be influential.     

How supply chain architecture and product architecture impact firm performance: An empirical examination

In order to enhance performance, manufacturing firms are building various capabilities and utilizing supply chain networks that are geographically dispersed around the globe. This study examines how decisions related to supply chain architecture and product architecture influence organizational competitiveness. Building on the co-specialization perspective, we evaluate the performance implications of product modularity and supply chain agility. While, product modularity constitutes a product configuration related to sourcing and assembling of products, supply chain agility is a supply chain configuration related to velocity (sensing, comprehending, and responding) and visibility (supplier network, internal operations, and external environment). Both the product and supply chain architectural decisions can impact performance, individually and in conjunction with each other. We empirically test the hypothesized relationships using data collected from 103 manufacturing firms. Results show that supply chain agility and product modularity directly enhance responsiveness and enable organizations to reduce cost. Furthermore, supply chain agility partially mediates the relationship between product modularity and both responsiveness and cost reduction. We elaborate on the key contributions of this study for both research and practice, discuss limitations, and also offer various avenues for further research.     

在数学建模教学中提高学生数学修养

数学修养是学生综合能力的重要组成部分。数学模型案例数学教学中通过在贯穿、开设数学建模课程,对解决实际问题的合理性进行分析和探讨,以期对当前的高校数学教育有一定的参考价值。     

中国北京奥运经济投入产出与计量模型研究

将投入产出模型与计量模型结合起来研究北京奥运经济,重点编制北京市2002年30个部门的经济投入产出表、资源投入产出表和环境投入产出表,建立与投入产出表对应的C-D生产函数模型、居民消费需求函数模型、政府消费函数模型、固定资产投资需求函数模型,利用计量模型起动投入产出模型,研究2008年奥运年经济的供需平衡乃至2010年的供需平衡,为北京奥运经济的决策提出了相应的建议。     

社会资本和供应链整合对产品创新的影响研究--基于中国实证调查的中介效应模型

文章提出了社会资本、供应链整合以及产品创新之间关系的结构模型。在中国大陆十三个省市四个行业的280家企业做了实证调查研究,运用SPSS和AMOS软件检验了社会资本对供应链整合和产品创新的逻辑关系。研究结果表明,供应链上制造企业进行产品创新项目的实施中,社会资本积极影响供应链整合和产品创新,并且供应链整合在社会资本对产品创新的影响关系中起着积极显著的中介作用,从而为企业提升产品创新能力提供理论基础和实施途径。     

基于层次聚类推理的在线品牌诊断研究及其服装系统实现

本文从服装品牌在线评估与诊断的实际需要出发,研究了面向服装品牌的在线诊断评价体系,给出了在线品牌诊断模型,提出案例推理与规则推理相结合的一种层次聚类推理方法,并根据品牌诊断流程和映射算法设计了品牌诊断推理机制,给出了一个服装在线品牌诊断系统的实现。     

Life-cycle funds: Much Ado about Nothing?

The core idea of life-cycle funds or target-date funds is to decrease the fund's equity exposure and conversely increase its bond exposure towards the fund's target date. Such funds have been gaining significant market share and were recently set as default choice of asset allocation in numerous defined contribution schemes or related old-age provision products in several countries. Hence, an assessment of life-cycle funds’ risk-return profiles – that is, the probability distribution of returns – is essential for sustainable financial planning of a large group of investors. This paper studies the risk-return profile of life-cycle funds in particular compared to simple balanced or lifestyle funds that apply a constant equity portion throughout the fund's term instead. In a Black–Scholes model, we derive balanced funds that reproduce the risk-return profile of an arbitrary life-cycle fund for single and regular contributions. We then analyze the accuracy of our results under more complex asset models with stochastic interest rates, stochastic equity volatility and jumps. We further show that frequently used ‘rule of thumb approximations’ that only take into account the life-cycle fund's average equity portion are not suitable to approximate a life-cycle fund's risk-return profile. Our results on the one hand facilitate sustainable financial planning and on the other hand challenge the very existence of life-cycle funds since appropriately calibrated balanced funds can offer a similar (often dominating) risk-return profile.