世界城市目标下的北京产业链演变研究

在建设世界城市目标下,根据1997、2002和2007年北京投入产出表,以净输出、区位商、影响力及感应度系数等综合指标分析了北京核心产业和产业链的演变。研究表明:核心产业具有一定的稳定性和延续性。1997—2007年,一直处于核心产业的主要有计算机制造业、建筑业、航空运输业、金融业及科教服务业。同时,一些不再适合北京城市性质和功能的产业链如纺织服装业、饮料制造业、钢铁制造业等劳动密集型、高能耗型、高耗水的产业链逐步退出,而适应北京向世界城市转变的知识密集型的产业链在城市经济发展中逐渐形成,产业链逐步向高端化方向演替。现代服务业产业链逐步增多,由1997年的4个增加到2002年的5个以及2007年的6个,而且产业链中的产业联系向更加紧密和专业化方向发展。其中,金融产业链从与钢压延加工业结合向房地产结合转变,再向商务服务业结合转变;电子信息产业链从与制造业结合向知识密集型服务业结合转变;科教服务业一直是北京城市功能独特的优势。现代服务业所具有的高端、高效和对其他行业高辐射力的作用逐步增强。     

When should a leader be directive or empowering? How to develop your own situational theory of leadership

A situational theory of leadership attempts to match a particular leadership style or type to specific external circumstances. The general idea is that one type of leadership will be effective in one situation, but a different type of leadership will be effective in another situation. Historically, situational theories of leadership have been too abstract to apply to specific situations. Nevertheless, the concept of situational leadership retains considerable intuitive appeal. In this article we draw on our previous research about situational leadership during resuscitation in a trauma center, in order to derive a general strategy of how a leader can best develop his or her own personal theory of leadership which best works for their unique circumstances. The core of the strategic approach involves: (1) defining goals for a specific situation, (2) defining potential leadership types, (3) identifying situational conditions, (4) matching a leadership style to the particular situation, and (5) determining how the match between leadership style and situation will be made. The medical trauma center we profile provided an interesting example of how leaders considered elements of the situation to guide their own leadership.     

Tests in contingency tables as regression tests

Applied researchers often use tests based on contingency tables, especially in preliminary data analysis and diagnostic testing. We show that many such tests may be alternatively implemented by testing for coefficient restrictions in linear regression systems.     

Building a global database: consequences for the national I–O data

ABSTRACT

Global economic analysis requires consistent and balanced data, which necessitates the reconciliation of datasets from both national and international sources. In the case of the Global Trade Analysis Project Data Base, datasets supplied by international sources are considered preferable to national input–output (I–O) tables. As a result, the national I–O data can experience significant adjustments during the reconciliation process due to differences between the national and international datasets. The purpose of this paper is to examine the extent to which national I–O data change during reconciliation. The results demonstrate that the I–O data are altered by the construction process, particularly from the reconciliation of the national I–O data to the international trade and energy datasets. Closer examination reveals potential issues with both the trade and energy datasets, as well as the national I–O data – illustrating the challenges associated with reconciling data from multiple sources.     

出口结构及其变动对国民经济影响的分析

本文基于1987-2005年可比价投入产出序列表分析了出口结构的变动趋势,并按比例法将其拆分得到1987-2005年非竞争型投入产出序列表,依此分别在总量和部门的层次上计算了各年度的出口贡献率和出口诱发度,从不同角度来测算出口对国民经济的影响,并进一步在2005年投入产出表的基础上对出口结构变动的影响进行了弹性分析。     

全球化经济中的生产非一体化--基于江苏投入产出表的实证研究

全球经济中生产非一体化已成为国际制造业发展的主要方向,生产非一体化有其内在的动因和发生机制.文章在揭示生产非一体化内涵及其效应的基础上提出了若干假说,运用投入产出表对中国及长三角的贸易一体化和生产非一体化程度进行了测量,对二者的相关性进行了计量检验.结果支持了本文假说,贸易一体化和生产非一体化互为解释变量时,计量效果显著,对它们具有较高解释力的变量还有资本化指数、行业外向度和交易费用等,改进后的模型显著性水平提高.     

New development: Determinants of financial performance in public organizations

In the slipstream of NPM, public organizations worldwide have had to increase their financial performance by adopting management practices. Nonetheless, financial performance (FP) might be mostly predicted by contingencies that are not within direct managerial control. Drawing on evidence from 308 Flemish municipalities, this article shows that organizational and environmental contingencies affect FP, but a significant amount of variation in FP is unexplained—indicating that management could well matter.     

Projecting supply and use tables: new variants and fair comparisons

ABSTRACT

We have introduced in this paper new variants of two methods for projecting Supply and Use Tables that are based on a distance minimisation approach (SUT-RAS) and the Leontief model (SUT-EURO). We have also compared them under similar and comparable exogenous information, i.e.: with and without exogenous industry output, and with explicit consideration of taxes less subsidies on products. We have conducted an empirical assessment of all of these methods against a set of annual tables between 2000 and 2005 for Austria, Belgium, Spain and Italy. From the empirical assessment, we obtained three main conclusions: (a) the use of extra information (i.e. industry output) generally improves projected estimates in both methods; (b) whenever industry output is available, the SUT-RAS method should be used and otherwise the SUT-EURO should be used instead; and (c) the total industry output is best estimated by the SUT-EURO method when this is not available.     

Do Asian Countries Upgrade in Global Value Chains? A Novel Approach and Empirical Evidence

This paper examines the move into upstream and downstream global value chain (GVC) activities by 11 Asian countries. We use international input–output tables in combination with employment data and measure the number of workers in each country involved in manufactures GVC. Jobs are classified by business function based on occupational information, such as R&D, fabrication, logistics, sales and marketing. In most Asian countries, we find a faster employment increase in R&D and other support services relative to fabrication activities between 2000 and 2011. However, the participation in GVC and the pace of upgrading appears to differ substantially across Asian countries. We use a structural decomposition method to explore the role of trade, consumption and technological change in accounting for changes in countries' involvement in GVC.     

Estimating domestic content in China’s exports: Accounting for a dual-trade regime

This paper identifies the heterogeneity issue as a key challenge that is central to but not fully addressed when measuring global value chains. To resolve this issue, we propose an extended input-output model that is consistent with the theoretical framework of heterogeneous firms. Empirically, we use China as a prominent example of a country that is engaged in both normal trade and the processing trade under a dual-trade regime, and we synthesize methods for constructing China’s extended input-output dataset for the period 1997 to 2015. Our results show that when alternative generic datasets are used, this is likely to result in overestimating the domestic content in China’s exports by as much as 44%, compared to a model that uses an extended database that incorporates production heterogeneity, as does the one in this study. This paper’s proposed methodology and rich dataset may be useful to a wider range of empirical applications.