An exact non-iterative sampling procedure for discrete missing data problems

Many statistical problems can be formulated as discrete missing data problems (MDPs). Examples include change-point problems, capture and recapture models, sample survey with non-response, zero-inflated Poisson models, medical screening/diagnostic tests and bioassay. This paper proposes an exact non-iterative sampling algorithm to obtain independently and identically distributed (i.i.d.) samples from posterior distribution in discrete MDPs. The new algorithm is essentially a conditional sampling, thus completely avoiding problems of convergence and slow convergence in iterative algorithms such as Markov chain Monte Carlo. Different from the general inverse Bayes formulae (IBF) sampler of Tan, Tian and Ng (Statistica Sinica, 13 , 2003, 625), the implementation of the new algorithm requires neither the expectation maximization nor the sampling importance resampling algorithms. The key idea is to first utilize the sampling-wise IBF to derive the conditional distribution of the missing data given the observed data, and then to draw i.i.d. samples from the complete-data posterior distribution. We first illustrate the method with a performing example and then apply the method to contingency tables with one supplemental margin for an human immunodeficiency virus study.     

高校辅导员绩效考核量化指标体系的构建

目前,高校辅导员的绩效考核主要以定性方式为主,考核结果容易受到主观影响。建立一套科学的辅导员绩效考核量化指标体系可以客观、公正的对辅导员的日常工作和本身素质进行考核。通过调查分析和访谈论证以及对问卷结果进行统计分析,建立辅导员队伍考核量化指标体系,得出的考核指标体系表对高校进行辅导员绩效考核时具有实际指导意义。     

中日制造业参与全球价值链分工模式及地位分析*——基于世界投入产出表

本文基于世界投入产出表数据,通过构建后向和前向垂直专业化率及全球价值链地位指数,较全面地分析了中日两国制造业参与全球价值链的程度、模式和地位变化情况。结果表明：（1）中国制造业出口中国内增加值占比低于同期日本,其获益能力相对较低。（2）中日两国制造业后向和前向垂直专业化率均呈上升趋势,其参与全球价值链程度不断加深。（3）中国制造业参与全球价值链主要是以后向模式,而日本制造业主要是以前向模式。（4）中国制造业中国外增加值以最终产品为主,主要从事加工组装生产环节,而日本制造业中国外增加值以中间产品为主,专业化于关键零部件生产环节。（5）中日两国制造业主要是通过间接增加值出口实现全球价值链前向参与,且其国内的生产分工程度均在不断加深。（6）中国制造业位于全球价值链下游位置,且有一定的攀升趋势,而日本制造业位于全球价值链上游位置,但有一定的下滑趋势。     

Compilation of Input–Output Data from the National Accounts

In this paper, a new method is presented to derive an input–output table from a system of make and use tables. The method, which we call ‘activity technology’, is mathematically equivalent to the well-known commodity technology, but chooses another unit, i.e. the activity. We will argue that, in the activity technology model, negatives can only arise from causes such as heterogeneity and errors in the data. To apply the activity technology, very detailed make and use matrices are required, as well as additional data on the input structures of certain activities. We will describe a method that can incorporate this additional data within the activity technology framework. Statistics Netherlands has adopted the method     

PSEUDO-R2 MEASURES FOR SOME COMMON LIMITED DEPENDENT VARIABLE MODELS

Abstract. A large number of different Pseudo- R ² measures for some common limited dependent variable models are surveyed. Measures include those based solely on the maximized likelihoods with and without the restriction that slope coefficients are zero, those which require further calculations based on parameter estimates of the coefficients and variances and those that are based solely on whether the qualitative predictions of the model are correct or not. The theme of the survey is that while there is no obvious criterion for choosing which Pseudo- R ² to use, if the estimation is in the context of an underlying latent dependent variable model, a case can be made for basing the choice on the strength of the numerical relationship to the OLS- R ² in the latent dependent variable. As such an OLS- R ² can be known in a Monte Carlo simulation, we summarize Monte Carlo results for some important latent dependent variable models (binary probit, ordinal probit and Tobit) and find that a Pseudo- R ² measure due to McKelvey and Zavoina scores consistently well under our criterion. We also very briefly discuss Pseudo- R ² measures for count data, for duration models and for prediction-realization tables.     

Alternative interaction structures in square contingency tables having ordered classificatory variables

Goodman (1972) proposed several models for the analysis of the general I x I square tables with particular emphasis on social mobility data. We demonstrate in this paper, that most of his models can be reproduced by combinations of both new models proposed here and the various well known models that have received considerable attention in the literature. Our presentation here is both concise and simple to comprehend. The various models considered in this study are fitted to ten data sets that include the much analyzed 5×5 Danish and British Social mobility data sets. Results suggest that in some cases more parsimonious models than those considered earlier by various authors are possible for the explanations of the variations in the data analyzed in this study.     

增值税“扩围”改革对行业税负的影响研究——基于上海改革方案和投入产出表的分析

增值税"扩围"改革的主要目的在于调整产业结构,促进经济发展方式转变。运用投入产出表对"上海方案"推广到全国后对工业和服务业税负的影响进行了模拟估算,得出结论工业行业的税负普遍降低;服务行业的税负有增有减,但总体是下降的行业;服务行业税负的波动幅度大于工业行业。     

基于回归模型的列联表独立性检验

本文利用回归模型设计列联表的独立性检验方法。利用虚拟变量技术将列联表定性因素转化为因变量和自变量,构造Wald统计量对二维列联表独立性进行检验,并在此基础上进一步设计方法对高维列联表的独立性问题进行检验。该方法能够将列联表的一些常见的检验问题纳入到一个统一的框架下来进行,有助于人们更好地理解和使用。     

Small exporting firms’ choice of exchange mode in international marketing channels for perishable products: A contingency approach

This study investigates how small, resource-constrained firms identify international marketing strategies for perishable products. Although international marketing of perishable products poses challenges for the exporter, many small companies manage to survive and thrive on an international business arena. Over the past decades, there has been a growing interest in how small firms design their international marketing channels. However, little is known about the conditions leading to the choice of a particular exchange modality. Drawing from the contingency framework, we investigate the role of firm-specific and industry-related factors in the choice of exchange mode among resource-constrained exporters. Based on insights from the Norwegian seafood industry, we introduce a contingency framework and develop a typology of exchange modalities. We suggest that resource-constrained exporters are inclined to engage in a succession of transactional exchanges. We offer propositions on the choice among alternative exchange modalities contingent upon firm and industry factors.     

Employing brand governance mechanisms with export channel partners: What are the performance consequences and contingent effects?

For decades leading international business scholars have assessed the benefits accruing from successful governance mechanisms. Although the critical importance of initiating and maintaining good relationships with export channel partners is recognized within the literature, there has been little research focus placed on the optimal approach for governing intangible aspects of these relationships. We offer the first integrated definition of export brand governance of channel partners (EBGoCP) and investigate its influence on export performance. Drawing from relational governance theory and contingency theory, we develop and test a model of the contingent effects of different country specific advantages and firm characteristics on the performance upshots of EBGoCP. Using survey data from UK exporters, our findings validate the hypothesized enhancing effects of EBGoCP on export performance outcomes. Furthermore, consistent with our contingency based predictions, we find country-of-origin-image, firm size and scope of exporting moderate the impact of EBGoCP on export performance. Along with providing fresh insights from the results, this study opens up a new stream of international business governance research and offers productive future research paths to follow.