A sequential approach to regional integration: The European Union and Central and Eastern Europe

This paper develops a theory of optimal sequencing of regional integration and applies it to the specific question of Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) and the EU. We show that the timing of transition and integration has implications for the long-term trade structure of Europe. In this model the interest to integrate the CEECs comes from harmonization of policies to attract industries. Without integration, European countries will try to inefficiently protect their industries. Because of the transfers implied by the CAP and the Structural Policies, the EU delays enlargement until the CEECs have sufficiently converged. CEECs might at this point prefer to stay outside the EU and attract industries by offering them more generous protection than the EU. Such timing may be inefficient ex ante for all countries because it may prevent full European integration in the long run, inducing firms to relocate outside of the EU and governments in the EU and the CEECs to inefficiently protect industry. During the transition, all countries benefit from regional integration among the CEECs.     

Revisiting the convergence hypothesis for tourism markets: Evidence from Turkey using the pairwise approach

This paper empirically revisits the tourism markets convergence hypothesis (Narayan, 2006) for the case of Turkey by employing the newly developed pairwise approach to the analysis of stochastic convergence ( [Pesaran, 2007] and [Pesaran et?al., 2009]). This new approach allows for unit root tests to be conducted on all possible pairs of tourist arrival differentials across Turkey’s 20 major tourist source markets, thus avoiding the need to choose a base source market or total tourist arrivals figure as the benchmark. Using monthly data over the period January 1996 to December 2009, the main finding is that despite considerable ‘co-movement’ of international tourist arrivals in Turkey, there is no evidence of long-run ‘convergence’ among Turkey’s major tourism markets. Cluster-based club convergence analyses alongside bivariate pairwise estimations confirm the lack of convergence and highlight specific tourist source markets with considerable untapped potential. These findings have profound policy implications for Turkey’s inbound tourism planning and promotion.     

中国的银行业竞争结构对国际贸易影响的区域收敛性

本文通过建立内生经济增长理论模型,利用我国1996～2009年30个省份的面板数据,建立空间面板数据模型考察银行业竞争结构对国际贸易影响的区域差异性。研究结果表明,在控制银行业竞争结构、外商直接投资水平等差异后,各省份国际贸易的增长符合条件β收敛假说,表明省际间银行业竞争结构差异是造成各省份对外贸易差异的原因,缩小省际间银行业结构差异,加快落后地区中小银行的发展,提升银行业的竞争力度有利于国际贸易差距的减小。本文为通过改善银行业的结构关系可以促进内陆开放经济高地建设提供了理论及实证依据。     

效率改善、经济发展和地区差异——基于对中国三大城市经济圈的实证研究

本文通过采用两种生产边界方法将中国三大城市经济圈(京津冀、长三角、珠三角)38个城市1990~2005年的劳动平均GDP分解为物质资本积累、效率改善、技术进步和人力资本投入所贡献的经济增长,然后采用绝对收敛方程考察这4个因素的收敛效应。实证结果表明,效率改善是其中唯一使地区间差距缩小的因素,而且其收敛效应随时间的推移呈现出"先减后增"的趋势,即进入20世纪90年代以来地区间差异有先拉大后缩小的趋势,但是缩小的效果还很不显著。     

浅析证券投资心理行为的特征

证券投资心理与行为分析就是对证券投资者个体和公众在投资过程中所表现出来的投资心理活动和投资行为所进行的分析和描述，从而找出规律性的投资模式，帮助投资者做出正确的投资决策。证券投资心理行为的特征主要有：投资需要满足程度的层次性，投资大众心理行为的趋同性。投资者个性心理行为特征的偏执性等。     

Testing for convergence of the Okun’s Law coefficient in Europe

Without convergence of macroeconomic parameters representative of the nature of adjustment mechanisms, even a common shock to members of a monetary union can lead to different macroeconomic consequences across the union and, eventually, to the need for more or less co-ordinated specific policies. In this paper, we test for the presence of convergence of the Okun’s Law coefficient (OLC) among several alternative groupings of European economies. The empirical strategy adopted is based on the evaluation of the time path of rolling regression estimates of the OLC for European countries. We then use a testing procedure suggested by Evans [Evans P (1996) J Econ Dynam Control 20:1027–1049] to investigate the convergence, or non-convergence, of the OLC in several groups of European countries by examining how the cross-country variance of the OLC evolves over time in these groups. A hypothesis of medium-term convergence of the OLC is rejected for most of the European country groups examined.      

Conditional convergence and the dynamics of the capital-output ratio

Output per worker can be expressed as a function of technological efficiency and of the capital-output ratio. Because technology is exogenous in the Solow model, all of the endogenous convergence dynamics take place through the adjustment of the capital-output ratio. This paper uses the empirical behavior of the capital-output ratio to estimate the speed of conditional convergence of economies towards their steady-state paths. We find that the conditional convergence speed is about seven percent per year. This is somewhat faster than predicted by the Solow model and is significantly higher than reported in most previous studies based on output per worker regressions. We show that, once there are stochastic shocks to technology, standard panel econometric techniques produce downward-biased estimates of convergence speeds, while our approach does not. The views expressed in this paper are our own, and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland or the ESCB.     

What drives long-term capital flows? A theoretical and empirical investigation

What drives capital inflows in the long run? This paper illustrates how capital movements conform surprisingly well to the predictions of a neoclassical model with credit constraints. The most intriguing prediction of this class of models is that, contrary to a pure neoclassical model, domestic saving should act as a complement rather than a substitute to capital inflows. Nevertheless, this class of models keeps the neoclassical prediction that capital should flow to countries where it is most scarce. Using foreign debt data from 1970 to 1998, I find qualitative and quantitative evidence that supports these predictions.     

A Proposal of an International Environmental Reporting Grid: What Interest for Policymakers,Regulatory Bodies,Companies, and Researchers?: Reply to Discussion of “Mandatory Environmental Disclosures by Companies Complying with IAS/IFRS: The Case of France,Germany and the UK”

This article offers the authors' insights concerning the issues raised by Professor Trevor Wilkins in commentaries on the article “Mandatory environmental disclosures by companies complying with IAS/IFRS: the case of France, Germany, and the UK” (Barbu et al., 2014). As suggested by Professor Wilkins, we demonstrate the utility of the international environmental reporting grid proposed in Barbu et al. (2014, Table 3): (1) for IASB policymakers and other regulatory bodies, (2) for companies to improve their environmental reporting, (3) for further research, and (4) for understanding the economic and financial consequences of IAS/IFRS-compliant environmental information.     

中国教育省际差距收敛分析及教育投入体制效应评价与改进——基于31个省（市）面板数据的实证分析

区域间教育协调发展是教育公正与平等的原则的体现,教育省际发展不协调已经成为区域发展的重要问题。对比2001年之前的情况,在2001年全国义务教育经费投入体制改革后,各省教育差距及农村教育差距存在显著的收敛和β收敛特征,而城市教育发展省际差距也存在着β收敛趋势。这说明2001年义务教育投入体制改革效应是明显的,但是这种＂以县为主、分级管理＂的教育投入体制对教育公平的改善作用在减小,其弊端已成为制约教育协调发展的主要障碍。因此,应进一步提高教育投入的重心。