The fragility of a discipline when a model has monopoly status

We consider the consequences of a scientific literature with only one model of an important phenomenon. The falsification of the model would mean falsification of the science. Scientists who would prefer not to have their discipline falsified will be tempted to find ad hoc explanations to excuse the failure. To test this hypothesis we propose a study of the economic forecasts of the comparative Soviet and American growth rates in the years before a public choice model of central planning was a viable alternative to the public interest model. JEL Code A11, B23 Earlier versions of the paper were presented at the University of Manitoba Economics Department Retreat in October 2005 and at the Center for Study of Public Choice Wednesday Seminar in November 2005. We thank the participants for their suggestions. All the remaining errors are our responsibility.     

对中国跨区域水污染治理困境与出路的思考——经济学分析视角

由于忽视各地条件的差异性,采取统一的达标标准,导致各地利益分配不均,产生地方保护主义和消极抵制,使跨区域的水污染治理问题成为当前治污的难点.只有认真地对待各地方利益的差异性,统筹兼顾各方利益,改变治理思路,建立合理的补偿与激励机制,才能使跨区域水污染治理达到预期效果.     

美国实施反倾销贸易政策的动因、绩效与启示

文章通过对美国反倾销贸易保护活动特征的分析,探讨了美国实施反倾销贸易保护政策的动因及其相关影响因素的强度,并对其经济效应进行了分析。反倾销贸易保护措施的实施往往受到利益集团的牵制,对一国整体福利来说并不一定有利。因此,在全球竞争中,为提高贸易效率,各国应建立更加开放的贸易体制。     

Economic Growth and Development: Towards a Catchup Model

We develop a model for economic growth applicable to a group of countries, constituting around half of the gross global production, that have been consistently “catching up” to the US since 1960 or so. This group can be termed “the convergence club.” The model has a theoretical basis developed in other publications (cited), but the present work is essentially empirical. It demonstrates that there is a very strong correlation between “catchup” growth, with respect to the US, and an energy proxy (EP). The energy proxy that works best is a linear combination of domestic electric power consumption petroleum (oil) consumption, per capita, compared to the US levels. The results presented here do not constitute a theory of growth, but they are consistent with theory presented elsewhere. On a practical level, we argue that consistent “catchup” trends over the past 40 years can safely be extrapolated for a few more decades for scenario construction purposes. We also believe that the observed catchup trends can be regarded as “potential” mid-term or long-term growth trajectories for transition economies and others that have recently been adversely affected by conflict or mismanagement.     

新疆对外贸易与经济增长的实证分析

本文根据新疆1990年-2005年的统计数据,利用协整理论和格兰杰(Granger)因果关系检验对新疆国内生产总值、投资和进出口贸易之间的关系进行分析。结果表明新疆国内生产总值与投资及进出口之间存在长期稳定的关系,投资和出口增长是拉动经济增长的原因,而经济增长却不是拉动投资、进出口增长的原因。     

中国经济增长中的结构平滑转移

本文应用考虑结构平滑转移的单位根检验方法,对中国22个主要的宏观经济变量进行了检验,结果表明其中半数能够拒绝单位根假设,可以用非线性确定趋势过程加以描述。除就业人员序列外,其余变量均不具有显著的非对称调整特征。实际GDP序列在改革开放初期发生了一次结构渐变,稳态增长率由原来的4.4%逐步提高到7.2%,标志着我国经济整体上已经平稳过渡到了一个更高的发展阶段。     

提升经济国际化水平的难点与对策——基于江苏省发展实践的分析思考

江苏省实施经济国际化战略取得长足进展的同时,面临着速度增长与效益提高不同步、资源要素供求保障的矛盾突出、流通与服务业发展相对滞后、区域内部经济国际化发展不协调、自有品牌培育进展不快、贸易摩擦压力趋大等新的问题和挑战。应对这些问题,要针对其原因采取相应的对策,要以科学发展观为指导建立新的经济国际化指标评价体系,健全体制,通过加快产业升级、自主创新、培育品牌等转换经济增长方式,健全和完善全面转型升级的促进体系,进一步提高应对国际经济摩擦的能力,通过多种形式培养提升经济国际化水平所需要的人才。     

Research on the Strategy of China Assets Appraisal Development

This article gets more inspiration about how to design the system of standards by inspecting the framework and it＇s content of intangible asset appraisal standard, which is the first specific one issued by The Chinese Institute of Certified Public Accountants so far and puts forward proposal of the strategies of China assets appraisal development.     

EVA与银行业的价值创造

中国的银行业,近年来由于体制、不良资产等各方面的原因,造成了效率低下,并且从有关的EVA统计数据看出,中国的银行业不仅没有在创造价值甚至在毁灭价值。面对着WTO五年保护期的即将届满,以及外资银行的纷纷踏入,中国的银行业应该怎样来创造自身价值呢?本文从经济增加值(EVA)的计算公式出发,从五个环节指出了中国银行业怎样进行价值创造,并通过举例的方式进行形象的说明。     

日本天基情报侦察系统发展分析

本文就日本利用本国多用途民用遥感卫星和借助别国力量获取卫星图像信息为其军事服务，直至建立日本独立的军事侦察卫星系统这一发展天基情报侦察系统的策略进行了评述。同时，对日本天基情报侦察系统装备情况及其可能达到的水平也作了简略的阐述。