Structure,Clearinghouses and Symmetry

We introduce and justify a taxonomy for the structure of markets and minimal institutions which appear in constructing minimally complex trading structures to perform the functions of price formation, settlement and payments. Each structure is presented as a playable strategic market game and is examined for its efficiency, the number of degrees of freedom and the symmetry properties of the structure     

Financial Deregulation and the Role of Statecraft: Lessons from Britain’s 1971 Competition and Credit Control Measures

Within the financialisation literature, a number of approaches identify the coexistence of financial expansion and productive stagnation. Yet there is no consensus on which direction causality operates between these two phenomena. This impasse has been widened by the lack of attention paid to the role of statecraft strategies in mediating possible causal mechanisms. This article contributes to rectifying this shortcoming by focusing on the governance advantages granted to states through financial deregulation. By presenting archival evidence on Britain’s 1971 Competition and Credit Control deregulation, this article lends support to financialisation accounts that argue that weaknesses in the productive economy spurred financial expansion, yet it also indicates that the state’s desire for depoliticised forms of governance played a crucial role in mediating this relationship. This further suggests that International Political Economy should focus on the strategic manner in which states relate to markets.     

It's easier to contract than to pay: Judicial independence and US municipal default in the 19th century

It is well established in the literature that an independent judiciary can act as a signal of credibility by a sovereign state and as a guarantor of creditor rights. However, to date there has been little systematic work analyzing how an independent judiciary reacts to fiscal stress and public-sector default. This article addresses that very question by evaluating how and if judicial independence affects default rates using US municipal data through the nineteenth century. Overall, the results do indicate that greater judicial independence is associated with a significantly lower likelihood of default. This channel largely occurs through the method by which a member of a state's court of last resort is selected (either appointment or popular election) and term length.     

个人信用与个人破产制度法律关系的分析——兼论我国建立个人破产制度的现实意义

目前,我国个人信用市场存在大量支付不能的债务无法通过现行法律妥善清理,导致个人信用风险难以得到有效控制和化解.本文从分析个人信用的法律保护入手,重点从内在逻辑联系以及个人破产制度的规则安排与个人信用的动态维护两方面,对个人信用和个人破产的法律关系进行了深入探讨,进而论证当前我国建立个人破产制度、推动个人信用风险管理的现实意义.     

The impact of credit constraints on the performance of Chinese agricultural wholesalers

This article evaluates the impact of credit constraints on the performance of Chinese agricultural wholesalers. We estimate a stochastic frontier function using transaction and credit data of agricultural wholesalers from across China to estimate the efficiency and productivity impacts of credit constraints on sales of affected agricultural wholesalers. Empirical results show that micro- and smaller wholesalers are disproportionally impacted by credit constraints and that eliminating these constraints would increase the sales of affected agricultural wholesalers by approximately 15%. Thus, policies aimed at providing credit access for these wholesalers would significantly boost the performance of smaller agricultural wholesalers while improving the overall performance of the Chinese food supply chain without requiring additional non-credit inputs.     

State prices,liquidity, and default

We show, in a monetary exchange economy, that asset prices in a complete markets general equilibrium are a function of the supply of liquidity by the Central Bank, through its effect on default and interest rates. Two agents trade goods and nominal assets to smooth consumption across periods and future states, in the presence of cash-in-advance financing costs that have effects on real allocations. We show that higher spot interest rates reduce trade and as a result increase state prices. Hence, states of nature with higher interest rates are also states of nature with higher risk-neutral probabilities. This result, which cannot be found in a Lucas-type representative agent model, implies that the yield curve is upward sloping in equilibrium, even when short-term interest rates are fairly stable and the variance of the (macroeconomic) stochastic discount factor is 0. The risk-premium in the term structure is, therefore, a monetary-cost risk premium.     

碳金融：撬动低碳经济的杠杆

金融业要支持低碳经济,发展“碳金融”是必经之路。碳金融创新渐成市场新宠,碳金融交易市场日益成为低碳经济制高点。中国碳金融具有巨大的市场空间,因此,应积极发展碳金融,获得主动权：要积极制定碳金融发展的战略规划;要健全碳金融监管和法律框架,规范碳金融发展;要培育碳金融创新机制;发展多种碳金融工具;改进碳金融中介服务;完善碳金融,促进碳金融开展;要构建交易平台,统一碳金融市场;要积极推动碳交易人民币计价的国际化进程;等等。     

The signaling effects of education in the online lending market: Evidence from China

In this study, we use data from an online lending platform named Xinxindai in China to empirically study the signaling effects of education for the default risk of borrowers. Three dependent variables are created, namely, the probability of default, overdue payments and overdue amount, and probit models, count models and Tobit models are employed correspondingly. The number of universities in the “211 Project” of China at the city level is employed as the instrumental variable. The empirical evidence shows that education generally plays a strong signaling role in the identification of borrowers’ default risk in China. The negative marginal effect of education declines as borrowing times increase and as the marketization of regions deepens. This study helps to fill an important gap in the existing literature. Platforms and lenders can use educational level for reference in identifying the default risk of borrowers.     

Insolvency regimes and firms' default risk under economic uncertainty and shocks

One of the arguments often advanced for implementing a stronger insolvency and bankruptcy framework is that it enhances credit discipline among firms. Using a large cross-country firm-level dataset, we empirically test whether a stronger insolvency regime reduces firms' likelihood of defaulting on their debt. In particular, we examine whether it reduces default risk during increased economic uncertainty and various external shocks. Our results confirm that a stronger insolvency regime moderates the adverse effects of economic shocks on firms' default risk. The effects are more pronounced for firms in the top half of the size distribution. We also explore channels through which improved creditor rights influence firms' default risk, including dependence on external finance, corporate leverage, and managerial ethics. Our main results are robust to an alternative measure of default risk, inclusion of currency and sovereign debt crisis episodes, and alternative estimations.     

金融创新产品风险的适应性监管机制探索——以MBS、CDO、CDS为例

金融创新产品风险的监管不到位是2007年美国次贷危机及2008年全球金融危机爆发的主要原因之一。在对MBS、CDO与CDS等创新产品风险及监管进行分析基础上创建的金融创新产品风险适应性监管机制框架包括风险的识别、风险的层级报告、风险的预警、风险的监管介入、风险的处理和金融危机与经济危机的预防六个部分。