农村信贷配给实证分析

信贷配给是制约我国农村信贷市场建设的重要因素,也阻碍了农村金融环境优化、影响了农村经济的良性发展。通过引入制度因子,量化信贷配给,构建了信贷配给宏观计量模型,对我国农村信贷配给状况进行实证检验,结果证明,利率和制度因子是造成我国农村信贷配给的两大因子。应合理调控利率、推进深化改革、加大三农扶持力度,实现农村经济社会的和谐发展。     

FDI and economic growth: the role of local financial markets

In this paper, we examine the various links among foreign direct investment (FDI), financial markets, and economic growth. We explore whether countries with better financial systems can exploit FDI more efficiently. Empirical analysis, using cross-country data between 1975 and 1995, shows that FDI alone plays an ambiguous role in contributing to economic growth. However, countries with well-developed financial markets gain significantly from FDI. The results are robust to different measures of financial market development, the inclusion of other determinants of economic growth, and consideration of endogeneity.     

金融衍生品信用风险管理与制度设计的法律问题

本文以法与金融学的方法分析了金融衍生产品信用风险的双边性质,并认为,我国金融机构在信用风险管理时应采用ISDA主协议或中国银行间市场金融衍生产品交易主协议文本,并应注意文本术语的差异。立法部门和监管部门应积极借鉴发达国家金融衍生产品市场的立法经验和实务操作,完善我国的《破产法》和《担保法》,对净额结算条款、信用支持文件、信用限额和信用衍生产品等法律效力给予明确规定,以增强可操作性。     

管理层权力制衡强度、债务约束与企业创新投资

企业创新是国家经济可持续增长的关键,受到管理层意愿的影响,因而需要对内部经营者的权力进行制衡。以2010-2018年我国A股上市公司为研究样本,实证检验管理层权力制衡强度对企业创新投资的影响,以及不同债务约束情境下高商业信用配置、高负债水平的调节效应,此外,还考察了产权性质的差异化影响。研究表明,管理层权力制衡强度越大,企业创新投资水平越高;高商业信用强化了该促进作用,而高负债水平弱化了该促进作用。进一步研究发现,管理层权力制衡强度与企业创新投资的关系在民企中更显著;国企能够更好地获得和运用商业信用,使其高商业信用对该关系的强化效应更显著;民企具有更强的债务约束,其高负债水平对该关系的弱化效应更明显。     

碳金融：撬动低碳经济的杠杆

金融业要支持低碳经济,发展“碳金融”是必经之路。碳金融创新渐成市场新宠,碳金融交易市场日益成为低碳经济制高点。中国碳金融具有巨大的市场空间,因此,应积极发展碳金融,获得主动权：要积极制定碳金融发展的战略规划;要健全碳金融监管和法律框架,规范碳金融发展;要培育碳金融创新机制;发展多种碳金融工具;改进碳金融中介服务;完善碳金融,促进碳金融开展;要构建交易平台,统一碳金融市场;要积极推动碳交易人民币计价的国际化进程;等等。     

Inter-enterprise arrears in economies in transition

In the context of economies in transition, the paper argues that an excessive liquidity squeeze could throw the economy into a persistent state of low economic activity. In such bad equilibrium, enterprise transactions become largely demonetized, with a chain of arrears, a form of involuntary credit, spreading over the entire system. The empirical analysis of the Romanian experience seems to support the view advanced in the paper.     

Discount rates and credit markets: Theory and evidence from rural india

Three models of credit markets - (1) the permanent income model, (2) upward sloping credit supply to individual borrowers, and (3) constrained credit due to imperfect enforcement - are tested using credit market data and an experimental study of individuals' discount rates in south India. The permanent income model is rejected by both the discount rate and the credit market data. The discount rate data are consistent with either of the other two models, while the credit market data are consistent with a combination of these two models. Other explanations are found to be insufficient to explain the results of this study.     

论征信的十个特征

征信就是独立第三方向授信机构提供信用信息服务的活动。它具有以下十个特征：征信采集的数据信息主要是信用信息;建立个人或企业的信息账户;征信具有微观性,需要切实保护信息主体特别是消费者的权益;征信是一个行业／专业;征信的主要服务对象是授信机构和授信活动;征信是一种信息分享机制;由独立于信用交易当事人的第三方提供服务;征信的功能,是在一定程度上揭示信息主体的信用状况;征信业发展更适合市场化运作,也需要政府的监管;征信行业是较严重依赖于法律法规,并与社会文化环境有密切关系的新兴行业。     

Central bank disclosure as a macroprudential tool for financial stability

The Basel Capital Accord (pillar 3) states that disclosure of information (transparency) is essential to financial stability. This study analyzes, through inflation reports, the disclosure of information from the Central Bank of Brazil concerning the credit market. We consider credit risk and capital buffers as measures of financial stability in this analysis. Furthermore, in order to measure the perception of the monetary authority on the credit market, we built two indices based on the central bank’s communication on credit development. We performed a panel data analysis based on a sample of 125 banks for the period from June 1999 to September 2014 (7000 observations). The findings suggest that central bank communication regarding expectations concerning the credit market contributes to financial stability. Therefore, this kind of communication of central banks (about credit development) may constitute an important macroprudential tool to improve financial stability.     

中国企业参与全球价值链的持续时间及其决定因素

研究目标：考察中国企业参与全球价值链的持续时间及其决定因素。研究方法：采用2000~2007年中国企业面板数据,通过生存分析模型进行研究。研究发现：中国企业进入和退出全球价值链（GVC）的企业数量大体呈上升趋势,企业总体嵌入GVC的持续时间较短,均值为1.827年,且随着持续时间增长企业生存的危险性逐渐降低。其中东部地区企业、加工贸易企业、民营企业和外资企业在GVC中的生存率更高,风险率更低,持续嵌入GVC的能力更强。出口发达国家的企业、加工贸易企业、民营企业、外资企业和具有较好研发能力、全要素生产率较高、规模较大、融资约束较小、年龄较小的企业退出GVC的概率更低,嵌入GVC的持续时间更长。研究创新：构建企业层面价值链嵌入程度指标,并运用生存分析创新性地考察中国企业在全球价值链中的进入退出行为。研究价值：对评析贸易开放的利得以及寻求“中国制造”在全球价值链中持续经营的模式具有重要的理论意义。