Banking deregulation and credit risk: Evidence from the EU

This paper studies the effect of banking deregulation on credit risk. Its theoretical model shows that a bank is willing to invest more resources in screening borrowers when there is an entry threat, even though loan rates are driven lower. Thus, deregulation may result in improved loan quality and lower credit risk. This result is tested using bank-level balance sheet data and macroeconomic data for the European Union. The data reveal that competition intensified after the completion of the Second Banking Directive, while loan quality improved in most markets. Evidence is found that the loan quality improvement is associated with lower interest margin.     

我国外贸企业高坏账率的成因分析及对策研究

近年来,在我国外贸持续增长的繁荣背后,一个数字令人触目惊心,即我国出口业务的坏账率高达5%,这无疑对出口企业的生存和发展构成了极大的危害。而从宏观层面来看,则是国家外汇的一种严重流失。因此,迅速采取积极有效的应对措施已是迫在眉睫。本文在对我国出口企业海外高坏账率的现状及原因进行深刻剖析的基础上,有针对性地提出了破题之策。     

Credit constraints and smallholder dairy production in the East African highlands: application of a switching regression model

Accurate assessment of farmers' credit constraint condition is important in order to understand the circumstances under which credit would have its greatest impact. In this study a switching regression model was used to determine the impact of credit on smallholder dairy farms in the East African highlands using farm level data from Ethiopia and Kenya. Farmers were classified as credit constrained or credit non-constrained based on their responses from the farm level surveys. No consistent relationship was found between farmers' credit constraint condition and their borrowing status. Most of the variation in milk output per farm was explained by the number of crossbred milking cows in the dairy herd. As credit is likely to facilitate investment in crossbred dairy cows it will have substantial impacts on smallholder dairy farms especially if it is targeted to credit constrained farms.     

THIS IS NOT A CREDIT CRISIS – IT IS A DEBT CRISIS

Using an analogy with ancient Babylonia as its leading theme, this viewpoint argues that the credit crisis is the symptom of an underlying problem. Fuelled by government policies, unprecedented debt levels were run up in industrialised countries over the last quarter century. Present policies of financial sector bailouts are not only an unwise use of taxpayers' money; they maintain economic structures opposed to what classical liberals such as J. S. Mill envisaged as a free-market economy.     

Cyclical correlations, credit contagion, and portfolio losses

We model aggregate credit losses on large portfolios of financial positions contracted with firms subject to both cyclical default correlation and direct default contagion processes. Cyclical correlation is due to the dependence of firms on common economic factors. Contagion is associated with the local interaction of firms with their business partners. We provide an explicit normal approximation of the distribution of portfolio losses. We quantify the relation between the variability of global economic fundamentals, strength of local firm interaction, and the fluctuation of losses. We find that cyclical oscillations in fundamentals dominate average losses, while local interaction causes additional fluctuations of losses around their average. The strength of the contagion-induced loss variability depends on the complexity of the business partner network.     

我国小额农贷可持续发展的困境及对策研究——基于绍兴地区的调研

小额农贷的推出改变了传统扶贫方式主要依靠国家财政或外来捐赠资金、扶贫效果不明显的局面,依靠一种新型的信贷运作模式实现了部分地区扶贫项目的规范化、长期化运作。但我国农村小额信贷的发展目前仍处于实验探索阶段,还面临着各种各样的风险和挑战。本文以浙江绍兴地区为例分析了我国农村小额信贷发展过程中的问题,并提出有针对性的建议以实现我国小额农贷的可持续发展。     

商业银行客户信用评级研究--基于平衡计分卡视角

信贷业务是国内商业银行的主营业务,客户信用评级作为控制商业银行信贷风险的重要一环是商业银行进行授信、贷款审批和贷后管理的基础。客户信用评级体系的开发和完善也成为了当前银行工作的重点。文章基于平衡计分卡的视角,针对当前商业银行客户信用评级管理的现状与不足,从四个方面对评级指标进行选取。同时使用层次分析法对指标体系进行权重分配并设定相应的评分标准和客户信用等级,最后通过案例分析对模型的操作性和有效性进行了验证。文章的评级模型并不同于国外研究论述的数学模型,其在操作上更加简便,信息获取也较为方便,更加适合当前我国商业银行借鉴和使用,因此也在一定程度上对我国商业银行客户信用评级体系的不断完善提供了参考意见。     

Accounting data and the credit spread: An empirical investigation

Measures of credit risk based on Merton (1974) rely upon information available in the market prices of securities. Under the Efficient Market Hypothesis market prices should reflect all available information and, hence, make redundant all other information in the analysis of credit risk. This paper examines whether accounting data are fully reflected in the market-based measures of credit risk and therefore has no role in explaining variations in the credit spread on corporate bonds. We use a sample consisting of over 11,000 firm-quarter observations with matched equity, bond and accounting data. The results suggest that equity volatility and Merton's distance-to-default outperform accounting variables in explaining variations in the credit spread. However, accounting variables are incrementally informative in explaining variations in the credit spread when considered in conjunction with market-based measures. Within the set of accounting variables considered, we find that the profitability ratio is by far the most incrementally informative accounting variable.     

中国农户面临的信贷排斥——来自4625个样本的数据

基于微观调查数据,采用有序 Probit 模型对影响农户信贷排斥的因素进行分析,研究发现：在农村地区,农户家庭主事者的性别、年龄对其家庭能否获得贷款用于生产性投资影响显著;家庭成员的总体受教育程度越高,其缓解家庭受信贷排斥的作用就越大;同样,家庭耕地规模越大和家庭年总收入越高的农户可以避免信贷排斥,而家庭负债越高的农户则面临着严重的信贷排斥。居住在自有住房里的农户和居住在商业中心周边的农户顺利获得贷款的概率较大。     

Credit market failure intervention: Do government sponsored small business credit programs enrich poorer areas?

Using local market employment rates as our measure of economic performance, we find a positive and significant correlation between the average annual level of employment in a local market and the level of SBA guaranteed lending in that local market. Furthermore, the intensity of this correlation is much larger in low-income markets. Indeed, our results suggest that this correlation is positive and significant only in low-income markets. This result has important implications for public policy in general and SBA guaranteed lending in particular.