Regret theory and the banking firm: The optimal bank interest margin

This paper examines the optimal bank interest margin, i.e., the spread between the loan rate and the deposit rate of a bank, when the bank is not only risk-averse but also regret-averse. Regret-averse preferences are characterized by a utility function that includes disutility from having chosen ex-post suboptimal alternatives. We show that the presence of regret aversion raises or lowers the optimal bank interest margin than the one chosen by the purely risk-averse bank, depending on whether the probability of default is below or above a threshold value, respectively. Regret aversion as such makes the bank less prudent and more prone to risk-taking when the probability of default is high, thereby adversely affecting the stability of the banking system.     

A framework to measure integrated risk

A framework underlying various models that measure the credit risk of a portfolio is extended in this paper to allow the integration of credit risk with a range of market risks using Monte Carlo simulation. A structural model is proposed that allows interest rates to be stochastic and provides closed-form expressions for the market value of a firm's equity and its probability of default. This model is embedded within the integrated framework and the general approach illustrated by measuring the risk of a foreign exchange forward when there is a significant probability of default by the counterparty. For this example moving from a market risk calculation to an integrated risk calculation reduces the expected future value of the instrument by an amount that could not be calculated using the common pre-settlement exposure technique for estimating the credit risk of a derivative.     

信用执法初探

信用执法将适用于信用关系的法律规范经济社会化，成为建立和维护市场经济秩序的基本条件。通过信用执法推动和促进市场经济信用的稳定与成熟。     

Management compensation and earnings-based covenants as signaling devices in credit markets

A firm seeks to raise capital in credit markets to fund risky operating activities. The firm has private information about the future cash flows from such activities. Firm owners delegate operating decisions to a manager who privately learns further information about the distribution of those cash flows subsequent to contracting, but before taking actions. Those actions include the selection of which operating activities to pursue and how much hidden effort to exert. At issue initially after introducing the problem is the efficient design of the manager's compensation as a device for signaling private information to lenders as well as for inducing operating decisions. Our results provide conditions under which a Bayesian Nash separating equilibrium satisfying the Cho–Kreps intuitive criterion exists. Broadly speaking, these results suggest that contracts that resolve internal adverse selection and moral hazard problems may serve as signaling devices in efficiently resolving information asymmetries with external parties. Next, we show how earnings-based debt covenants and the selection of conservative accounting methods may eliminate signaling costs altogether.     

Interlinked credit and farm intensification: evidence from Kenya

This paper addresses the potential for interlinked credit/input/output marketing arrangements for particular cash crops to promote food crop intensification. Using panel survey data from Kenya, we estimate a household fixed-effects model of fertiliser use per hectare of food crops, using an instrumental variables approach for addressing the endogeneity of participation in interlinked credit arrangements. Results indicate that households engaging in interlinked marketing programs for selected cash crops applied considerably greater fertiliser on other crops (primarily cereals) not directly purchased by the cash crop trading firm. These findings suggest that, in addition to the direct stimulus that interlinked cash crop marketing arrangements can have on small farmer incomes, these institutional arrangements may provide spill-over benefits for the productivity of farmers' other activities such as food cropping.     

The effect of banking crisis on bank-dependent borrowers

We provide causal evidence that adverse capital shocks to banks affect their borrowers’ performance negatively. We use an exogenous shock to the U.S. banking system during the Russian crisis of Fall 1998 to separate the effect of borrowers’ demand of credit from the supply of credit by the banks. Firms that primarily relied on banks for capital suffered larger valuation losses during this period and subsequently experienced a higher decline in their capital expenditure and profitability as compared to firms that had access to the public-debt market. Consistent with an adverse shock to the supply of credit, crisis-affected banks decreased the quantity of their lending and increased loan interest rates in the post-crisis period significantly more than the unaffected banks. Our results suggest that the global integration of the financial sector can contribute to the propagation of financial shocks from one economy to another through the banking channel.     

对农村信用社发展社团贷款的实践与思考

面对竞争压力,如何拓展业务、增加盈利,对于目前的农信社来说,无疑也和对体制的改革一样重要。在这一背景下,农信社应通过加强社与社之间的合作,培育和开发社团贷款市场,使其逐渐发展成为农信社极具竞争力和盈利能力的核心业务之一。     

发展信用卡汽车分期付款业务的思考

信用卡汽车分期付款业务作为一种新的汽车信贷融资模式逐渐兴起,并很快成为各商业银行信用卡中间业务收入的新增长点,业务发展迅猛。本文针对目前汽车分期付款业务存在的主要风险,提出了加强风险防范稳健发展业务的对策建议。     

中小企业信贷风险分析与防范对策研究

在我国长期以间接融资为主的融资机制下,银行信贷成为中小企业融资的重要渠道。然而由于市场竞争、信息不对称、担保体系、商业银行信贷管理水平和政策环境等方面的原因,使得中小企业信贷往往面临着比较大的风险。在后金融危机时代如何发挥充分信贷的重要作用并做好风险防范,支持中小企业发展具有非常重要的现实作用和意义。