一个基于简单线性模型的信贷政策有效性及影响因素分析

在当前间接融资为主的融资格局下,信贷政策是我国宏观调控的重要组成部分。信贷政策的有效性就成为当前经济发展中刻不容缓急需研究的热点问题。本文基于一个简单的货币信贷的供求模型对信贷政策有效性进行研究,以期对疏通宏观调控政策传导渠道、发展和完善信贷市场、提高宏观调控效果发挥一些积极的促进作用。     

The effect of corporate governance on credit ratings: Evidence from China's bond market

This paper examines the association between firms’ corporate governance and credit ratings (both bond ratings and issuer ratings) in China. In addition to considering the financial attributes of bond issuers, we ask to what extent do credit rating agencies consider the corporate governance attributes of issuers? In concept, bondholders are concerned with the financial effects of how corporate governance resolves the agency conflicts between bondholders and managers, majority and minority shareholders, and shareholders and bondholders. We find that corporate governance affects bond issuer credit ratings in China. After controlling for firms’ financial attributes, we find that issuer ratings are positively related to dual‐listing, whether the firm is a state‐owned enterprise, the ownership of the second to the tenth largest shareholder; and negatively related to the relative scale of audit fees. We attribute the positive association between dual‐listing and credit rating to higher quality and transparency of information reported by the dual‐listed firm. The value to bondholders of the implicit government guarantee of debt payments more than offsets the negative association between firm value and being an SOE. Bond rating agencies expect that the change in agency costs with a reduction in the ownership of the largest shareholder benefits bondholders. To credit rating agencies, the scale of audit fees (relative to total assets of the accounting firm) signals interest binding between the client firm and the accounting firm that threatens the independence of auditing and the quality of financial reporting. We also find that bond‐specific attributes: collateral and issue size, are positively related to bond credit ratings.     

Network structures and credit risk in cross-shareholdings among listed Japanese companies

This study assesses the network structures of cross-shareholdings among listed Japanese companies using a dataset of 2936 companies for the fiscal years 2008–2015. First, I analyze the network structure of cross-shareholdings on the Japanese stock market using centrality measures. Financial institutions and companies in the motor manufacturing industry are central in the network in terms of degree centrality. By contrast, companies in various industries play a central role in terms of betweenness centrality. Second, I use credit risk analysis to investigate the effects of cross-shareholdings using a panel regression. The results show that an increase in the share of foreign companies does not increase the counterparty credit risk in the network. In addition, an increase of a direct centrality measure (i.e., degree or eigenvector centrality) indicates that the connections among cross-shareholdings become denser in a neighboring area and increase credit contagion risk. By contrast, an increase of an indirect centrality measure (i.e., eccentricity or farness centrality) shows that the connections among cross-shareholdings become dispersed at the global level and decrease credit contagion risk. The results could provide senior managers with an important signal for credit risk management related to cross-shareholdings.     

The role of internal corporate governance mechanisms on default risk: A systematic review for different institutional settings

Recent financial downturns, characterized by the significant failures of firms, have revealed the need to control credit risk. Latest literature has shown that weak corporate governance structures are related to high levels of default risk, leading to financial instability. In this context, we aim to summarize the literature that focuses on the role that internal corporate governance plays in the credit risk of firms, specifically considering three corporate governance components: ownership structure, board structure and financial stakeholders’ rights and relations. Additionally, we analyse whether the effectiveness of the internal mechanisms depends on particular key factors, especially the institutional setting and the type of mechanisms considered. Finally, new lines of research are identified for future research.     

Expectation-driven cycles in the housing market: Evidence from survey data

Using a vector-autoregression (VAR) model and data from the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, we provide evidence on the importance of news and consumers’ beliefs for housing-market dynamics and aggregate fluctuations. We document that innovations to News on Business Conditions generate hump-shaped responses in house prices and other macroeconomic variables. We also show that innovations to Expectations of Rising House Prices are particularly important in explaining the path of macroeconomic variables during housing booms. To disentangle the effects of News on Business Conditions from other sources of expectation-driven cycles, we estimate a VAR where the News variable is ordered first. Innovations to News on Business Conditions generate Expectations of Rising House Prices. However, during housing booms, innovations to Expectations of Rising House Prices unrelated to News on Business Conditions account for a large part of macroeconomic fluctuations. Shocks to News and Expectations account together for more than half of the forecast error variance of house prices, and other macroeconomic variables, during periods of booms in house prices.     

美国信用行业的发展及其借鉴作用

本文主要研究了美国信用行业的发展历程,主要的行业模式和征信模式以及存在的问题,然后分析了中国信用行业的发展。借鉴美国信用行业的发展经验,提出我国如何发展自己的信用行业,解决社会和市场中的信用危机。     

借鉴中外经验 优化农村信用环境——以北京市为例

北京农村金融服务体系建设已经处于国内前列,但农户贷款仍显困难。其关键原因在于农村信用环境建设仍不完善,大大制约了农户信贷的可得性。本文通过分析制约农村信用环境建设的因素,借鉴中外成功经验,提出优化农村信用环境的对策建议。     

Intra-industry transfer effects of credit risk news: Rated versus unrated rivals

We examine the information transfer effect of bond-rating adjustments on industry rivals. Our research is based on the premise that the transfer effect is influenced by the rated status of rivals, i.e., whether the rival’s debt is rated by any credit rating agency. The results reveal that credit rating adjustments induce different/stronger effects. First, the intra-industry transfer effects (on returns and risk) are stronger on rated rivals than on unrated rivals. Second, the credit risk news produces lower co-movements between the returns of the two types of rivals. Third, the differential effect is stronger in the manufacturing industry, in the riskiest industries and in the industries with the lowest competition levels. Interestingly, our results suggest that credit rating news is more relevant for rivals with access to the public debt market (such as re-rated firms) than for rivals that focus on other sources of funding.     

Financial cycle and business cycle: An empirical analysis based on the data from the U.S

In this paper, we first study the relationship between the financial cycle and the business cycle in the time and frequency domain. Then we also explore the interactions and dynamic mechanisms of the financial cycle, the business cycle, real interest rate and exchange rate by the VAR model. The empirical results show that the financial cycle is closely related to the business cycle, especially at medium-term frequencies (8–30 years), the business cycle leads the financial cycle with a high positive correlation. However, the relationship between them is not significant during the Great Moderation at business-cycle (2–4 years). In addition, the financial cycle not only becomes a main driver of real interest rate, the financial cycle and the business cycle, but also serves as an important source of the business cycle fluctuations. In general, our results lay some theoretical foundation for the policy practice of financial and economic stability.     

Credit union loan rate determinants in the United States

ABSTRACT

Credit union participation in the consumer lending market continues to grow as an increasing number of consumers and small businesses become members and open accounts. This study investigates the determinants of credit union loan rates during a period of economic expansion in the United States using fourth quarter 2015 data for 5,942 credit unions. Five different interest rate categories are analysed using nine potential loan rate determinants. Results indicate that loan rates tend to be lower as credit union size increases, while high ratios for net charge-offs and operating costs cause interest rates to increase. Opposite to what is expected, loan rates are positively correlated with regional unemployment rates. A possible explanation for this outcome is that weak labour markets are associated with elevated loan delinquency rates and, therefore, greater default risks resulting in higher interest rates.